03/30/06 NOW: NE, KS, OK, TX

Tornado Watch 109 has been issued for Southern Nebraska southward through Kansas and into Oklahoma. Convection expected to initiate within the next couple hours.

Verne, Michael, and I are sitting in York on pins and needles awaiting a dryline which appears to still be well out west.
 
Yeah, the dryline looks to be along the OK/TX Panhandle. Judging by the RUC around early afternoon should get interesting around north central OK. I'm hoping to get a severe cell or two close to Tulsa before I have to go to work. Still got SDS :) The SPC used some pretty words in that watch (109). I'm suprised they issues it so early.
 
I'm pretty certain they issued the PDS Tornado watch early because of the cells that are developing now in Oklahoma. The main threat since they are not yet rooted should be large hail for the next 2 hours or so. They should transition to a wind and tornado threat once we get more heating in a few hours. I thinnk they just decided to throw 1 general watch out there since it covers all of the bases....hail 1st then tornadoes later. But man, those new spaghetti watch boxes will take some getting used to.
 
Sitting in Salina, KS......I might think about sitting here until storms initiate.

Looks absolutely incredible for Northern Kansas......actually all of central and eastern Kansas from the Oklahoma border to the Kansas border. The Dodge City sounding is unbelievable with exception of the shear, but the instability and capping inversion are nearly perfect!
 
Sitting in Salina, KS......I might think about sitting here until storms initiate.

Looks absolutely incredible for Northern Kansas......actually all of central and eastern Kansas from the Oklahoma border to the Kansas border. The Dodge City sounding is unbelievable with exception of the shear, but the instability and capping inversion are nearly perfect!
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The LMN and TOP soundings are incredible with major CAPE and 400-550 Helicity values. Looks like a great day for you folks chasing since line #1 is initiating near OKC and Line #2 further west toward the panhandle. Good luck and be safe.
 
Sitting in Gainesville, TX watching things on radar to the north and west. Weather here is screaming to the north and west. I think this thing is going to blow out some huge storms later today. Going to head west here in the next hour after I get some work done. Will link back up in Wichita Falls, TX. Does anyone think that this is still on okay target area or has everything shifted North?
 
new meso discussion out # 0360 basically sayin threat of tornadoes to increase within next
few hours & additional watch will likely be needed s of tornado watch # 109... which i guess
they are thinking further into central, swrn, sc okla
 
ict6jz.jpg


Dryline seen nicely on satellite and firing up across portions of northern Oklahoma where nice mixing is evident along pre-dryline trofing strcuture. New SVR just issued for Kay County where .88" size hail was reported by there EMA. Rapidly developing CU along the dryline suggests with ejection of vigorous mid/upper jet streak that rapid development/intensification will occur along the dryline by mid afternoon. Winds also beginning to back a little more at the SFC from ICT-CNU-TOP. This would have to be my target zone if I were out today. Looks like deep low level mesocyclogenesis is likely in any storms that fire across this area. Be careful today guys...

Just as I posted, rapid linear initiation has taken place across WRN/SWRN OK along the wind shift axis from Hammon - Carter, OK.
 
just a little note of intrest, cloud deck really eroding here at the house just n of adm
and temps are rising good, in the last half hour went from 66.4 up to 72.3 so atleast its
going up and that cloud deck is defently eroding around here.. i expect that other tornado
watch to be issued shortly becouse those suckers out west are going up fairly quick.
 
Looking at ICT Level II scans, I seriously hope that the cap isn't breaking all at once. All kinds of crap firing east of ICT and it looks more like SHRA attm. This kind of garbage could screw up our inflow.
 
Big cell rapidly intensifying south of wichita.
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That storm is a mess on the last few runs and is moving near 60mph.

Im still in Wichita awaiting the arrival of the dryline. Im interested in the Medicine Lodge area for significant convective initiation in the next hour or two. A few cells have been trying to form in a clear patch of skies over this area but so far have been un-successful. SPC meso indicates 1500-2000 J/KG resides over most of SC KS/NC OK and RAOB data indicates limited capping. The instability axis over KS is fairly narrow and this pre-dryline convection needs to get out of the way asap. I agree with SPC on an isolated possibly significant tornado risk if cells can establish themselves and remain discrete despite limited heating thus far.

playing the waiting game in ICT...
 
Big cell rapidly intensifying south of wichita.
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That is elevated convection so the only concerns with that are quarter-sized hail and some gusty winds.

As far as the rest of the set-up here in OK, I am concerned that the backed winds from 2-4 km AGL evident per the PRC profiler are going to make it very difficult to get discrete cells this afternoon. The developing storms along the dryline in western OK are already congealing into a squall line, however with distinct convective cores. I don't doubt the potential for these to drop tornadoes with SRH values > 300 m2/s2 and sub-800 m LCLs, but as far as how chaseable they will be is another story. One more concern, the cold front is quickly encroaching the dryline and will likely overtake it at some point this afternoon, further aiding in linear storm development. Atleast its safe to wait things out in OUN for now and wait and see further developments in the next hour.
 
storms are now even firing in nw tx down around childress right along the dryline... i'd target s end area
from hobart,ok to the red river and points east of there to i-35 i think that area once it gets more east along
i-44 will explode...
 
Sitting in Lawton current time with dewpoint of 58 and sse winds at about 20. Clouds are racinf NE. I am keeping an eye in the stuff to me NW and hoping for some tail end type action but there may be storms firing even back into Western North Texas later.
 
I'm doing the same as Nick, just watching from OUN. The 500 max is clearly evident approaching on the Tucumcari and Vici profilers. The Haviland, KS profiler is showing strongly veered flow at 500 to the NNE, which isn't good for hodographs in eastern Kansas. Today looks like a toss up between rocket storms and a subsidence bust. Go north for a sure thing storm-wise but good luck catching them, or stick south where storms will be slightly more chaseable but will there be enough DL convergence/upper support to get them going? I've seen this act before a few times in 2006. Maybe it's a geograpgical bias, but something is telling me not to ignore SC OK today. I'd rather miss rocket tornadoes up north than miss a 40mph eastward moving fattie down here.
 
jason,
yeah you got stuff trying to fire back to your wsw over around vernon, been watchin the last
couple scans and a cell is going up rightnow over southern jackson county another one in
nw tx just nw of vernon...
 
just talked to a friend at spc ... New Watch to be issued for South Central/SW And Central Oklahoma very soon within the half hour to an hour... likely will be a pds also...
 
that doesn't surprise me much at all -- the sun has just started breaking throught the clouds here in Norman and since the 12z sounding already had 1800 J/Kg of CAPE, this is shaping up to be a volatile day.
 
just talked to a friend at spc ... New Watch to be issued for South Central/SW And Central Oklahoma very soon within the half hour to an hour... likely will be a pds also...
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I'm not totally sure about that call, if it comes to reality. Looks to me like more linear action is probable along the dryline. Also, I am concerned about the backed winds just as Nic. I really hate to see that MCS forming NE of ICT. Deep cells are firing due west/southwest of Wichita now. I think that these few storms are the ones that could go supercellular and develop tornadoes within the next hour or two.
 
SPC JUST ISSUED STRONG STATEMENT "EXPECTING STRONG TORNADOES ACROSS
CENTRAL / WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA NEXT FEW HOURS" also.. the line is starting to
break up live on radar... i've seen this line trying to start to break apart.. so guys
yes it might be early in the season but this is one of those days you reserve that big
word "OUTBREAK" for... i feel very strongly its gonna happen esp when these get just
east of i-44 between 44 and i-35... watch will be posted soon
 
I'm sitting at a reststop about halfway between Lincoln and York. The cloud deck here has been starting to erode a bit. It looks almost solidly overcast, but I can see blue here and here and the sunlight heeps poking in and out. May go a bit further south and west of here... gonna do another data check. Still kinda oscillating between looking at the dryline and looking at being ahead of the low.
 
The stuff on the dry line just moved through here at Cordell. Brief heavy rain and small hail--pea to marble size. I went up to look at a cell in northern Was$$$a County near Bessie about an hour ago. The linear stuff south of it went up very fast!

Gene
 
SPC JUST ISSUED STRONG STATEMENT "EXPECTING STRONG TORNADOES ACROSS
CENTRAL / WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA NEXT FEW HOURS" also.. the line is starting to
break up live on radar... i've seen this line trying to start to break apart.. so guys
yes it might be early in the season but this is one of those days you reserve that big
word "OUTBREAK" for... i feel very strongly its gonna happen esp when these get just
east of i-44 between 44 and i-35... watch will be posted soon [/b]

Todd,

What products says that they are "EXPECTING STRONG TORNADOES ACROSS CENTRAL / WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA NEXT FEW HOURS"? The MCD for the area does not contain that text (does not mention that they "expect strong tornadoes" there).
 
Sitting here in El Reno keeping an eye on radar at this stuff to the west. Surface winds are strong here, and the low clouds overhead are SCREAMING NNE.
 
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