03/30/06 NOW: NE, KS, OK, TX

[Tony Laubach]

Tornado Watch 109 has been issued for Southern Nebraska southward through Kansas and into Oklahoma. Convection expected to initiate within the next couple hours.

Verne, Michael, and I are sitting in York on pins and needles awaiting a dryline which appears to still be well out west.

 

[Mike Gauldin]

Yeah, the dryline looks to be along the OK/TX Panhandle. Judging by the RUC around early afternoon should get interesting around north central OK. I'm hoping to get a severe cell or two close to Tulsa before I have to go to work. Still got SDS The SPC used some pretty words in that watch (109). I'm suprised they issues it so early.

 

[HAltschule]

I'm pretty certain they issued the PDS Tornado watch early because of the cells that are developing now in Oklahoma. The main threat since they are not yet rooted should be large hail for the next 2 hours or so. They should transition to a wind and tornado threat once we get more heating in a few hours. I thinnk they just decided to throw 1 general watch out there since it covers all of the bases....hail 1st then tornadoes later. But man, those new spaghetti watch boxes will take some getting used to.

 

[Simon Brewer]

Sitting in Salina, KS......I might think about sitting here until storms initiate.

Looks absolutely incredible for Northern Kansas......actually all of central and eastern Kansas from the Oklahoma border to the Kansas border. The Dodge City sounding is unbelievable with exception of the shear, but the instability and capping inversion are nearly perfect!

 

[Todd Rasmuson]

very interesting notice the official nws forecast graphic under the enhanced forecast page
on the oun nws site, shows the dryline backed up still out west even around 3 pm along i-44
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/enhancedwx/fxc_Today.jpg so the 1630 outlook might just push
the mod risk even further west, we shall see...

 

[HAltschule]

Sitting in Salina, KS......I might think about sitting here until storms initiate.

Looks absolutely incredible for Northern Kansas......actually all of central and eastern Kansas from the Oklahoma border to the Kansas border. The Dodge City sounding is unbelievable with exception of the shear, but the instability and capping inversion are nearly perfect!
[/b]

The LMN and TOP soundings are incredible with major CAPE and 400-550 Helicity values. Looks like a great day for you folks chasing since line #1 is initiating near OKC and Line #2 further west toward the panhandle. Good luck and be safe.

 

[Evan Stubbart]

Sitting in Gainesville, TX watching things on radar to the north and west. Weather here is screaming to the north and west. I think this thing is going to blow out some huge storms later today. Going to head west here in the next hour after I get some work done. Will link back up in Wichita Falls, TX. Does anyone think that this is still on okay target area or has everything shifted North?

 

[Todd Rasmuson]

new meso discussion out # 0360 basically sayin threat of tornadoes to increase within next
few hours & additional watch will likely be needed s of tornado watch # 109... which i guess
they are thinking further into central, swrn, sc okla

 

[Brett Adair]

Dryline seen nicely on satellite and firing up across portions of northern Oklahoma where nice mixing is evident along pre-dryline trofing strcuture. New SVR just issued for Kay County where .88" size hail was reported by there EMA. Rapidly developing CU along the dryline suggests with ejection of vigorous mid/upper jet streak that rapid development/intensification will occur along the dryline by mid afternoon. Winds also beginning to back a little more at the SFC from ICT-CNU-TOP. This would have to be my target zone if I were out today. Looks like deep low level mesocyclogenesis is likely in any storms that fire across this area. Be careful today guys...

Just as I posted, rapid linear initiation has taken place across WRN/SWRN OK along the wind shift axis from Hammon - Carter, OK.

 

[Todd Rasmuson]

just a little note of intrest, cloud deck really eroding here at the house just n of adm
and temps are rising good, in the last half hour went from 66.4 up to 72.3 so atleast its
going up and that cloud deck is defently eroding around here.. i expect that other tornado
watch to be issued shortly becouse those suckers out west are going up fairly quick.

 

[Brett Adair]

Looking at ICT Level II scans, I seriously hope that the cap isn't breaking all at once. All kinds of crap firing east of ICT and it looks more like SHRA attm. This kind of garbage could screw up our inflow.

 

[Philip Flory]

Big cell rapidly intensifying south of wichita.
[/b]

That storm is a mess on the last few runs and is moving near 60mph.

Im still in Wichita awaiting the arrival of the dryline. Im interested in the Medicine Lodge area for significant convective initiation in the next hour or two. A few cells have been trying to form in a clear patch of skies over this area but so far have been un-successful. SPC meso indicates 1500-2000 J/KG resides over most of SC KS/NC OK and RAOB data indicates limited capping. The instability axis over KS is fairly narrow and this pre-dryline convection needs to get out of the way asap. I agree with SPC on an isolated possibly significant tornado risk if cells can establish themselves and remain discrete despite limited heating thus far.

playing the waiting game in ICT...

 

[Nic Wilson]

Big cell rapidly intensifying south of wichita.
[/b]

That is elevated convection so the only concerns with that are quarter-sized hail and some gusty winds.

As far as the rest of the set-up here in OK, I am concerned that the backed winds from 2-4 km AGL evident per the PRC profiler are going to make it very difficult to get discrete cells this afternoon. The developing storms along the dryline in western OK are already congealing into a squall line, however with distinct convective cores. I don't doubt the potential for these to drop tornadoes with SRH values > 300 m2/s2 and sub-800 m LCLs, but as far as how chaseable they will be is another story. One more concern, the cold front is quickly encroaching the dryline and will likely overtake it at some point this afternoon, further aiding in linear storm development. Atleast its safe to wait things out in OUN for now and wait and see further developments in the next hour.

 

[Todd Rasmuson]

storms are now even firing in nw tx down around childress right along the dryline... i'd target s end area
from hobart,ok to the red river and points east of there to i-35 i think that area once it gets more east along
i-44 will explode...

 

[Jason A.C. Brock]

Sitting in Lawton current time with dewpoint of 58 and sse winds at about 20. Clouds are racinf NE. I am keeping an eye in the stuff to me NW and hoping for some tail end type action but there may be storms firing even back into Western North Texas later.