Will El Reno change how you chase?

[Sean Ramsey]

With all due respect, chasing experience wouldn't have made any difference, and neither would having better/ bigger equipment. Not on this day.

You're right, it wouldn't have made any difference this day. But, if and when on future moderate risk or high risk days (maybe even slight) when the young couple with only a cell phone or maybe not even that with little to no study on storm motion and characteristics tells me they are going out chasing, I'll be way more inclined to try to talk them out of it. It won't bother me a bit to do so, not after Friday. That's what has changed the most for me.

 

[Brandon Jenkins]

This event has definitely made me take a step back and analyze our chase habits. While we witnessed the initial touchdown from a very close distance in what was seemingly a safe area with slow storm movement, things quickly escalated and the slow moving traffic made for an even trickier escape. Like Brett, I will probably evaluate secondary targets away from major metros or consider staying away completely if there are no other options. While we always had a visual on the tornado and an escape route, the rapid growth of this beast caught us off guard and altered our escape plans within a matter of seconds. Someone with less experience and armed with minimal technology (or god forbid none) will never fare well in that situation. I have no desire to ever be in that situation again myself, and I'm sure there are many others who share that sentiment. Throw in the chaos of ten thousand residents trying to flee the metro and you have a recipe for disaster, and it's not a matter of if but when it happens again.

 

[Jake Orosi]

It's
For most of us on this site, it goes against every fiber of our being to sit out high-end setups of less than an hour's drive from home. Yet, I bet I'm not the only one in OKC/OUN seriously weighing my options now.

Can always just camp for a bit east of town and wait to pick up whatever's left safely I suppose.

 

[Joshua Nall]

It will cause me to stay further away from big cities for sure. I was singing Happy Birthday to my twin nieces that Friday evening. Was pretty bummed about it, even wrote my sister and asked if she could move the party to central OK somewhere. Although I would have liked to have witnessed the storm, I'm OK with where I was, especially considering how events played out. Actually, I might not have even gotten up there until later on as my initial thinking was to be somewhere well south of I-40.

I already have a healthy fear of traffic and getting caught in it. One of my first times to chase something other than local stuff I wound up in Dallas. The storm was just entering Fort Worth and I was to the the East of Dallas. Decided I could head on into Dallas on 30 rather than wait for it. I pulled off on an exit and the rain started, then the hail, the traffic was terrible. Then the tornado sirens started howling. I started thinking I better get out of there cause I could not tell anything about the storm visually. Only had a flip phone with a tiny radar screen that basically only showed a red blob. Well I started to panic a bit, I was new to all the traffic and the hail was unnerving, ended up running over a curb. The storm did drop a tornado in Dallas but I never saw anything but rain and hail. My first lesson about chasing in big cities.

Last year I tried dropping South through Dallas to get to some tornadic storms south of the city. I made it just a little ways and turned around. I hate traffic.

On the 20th I was well south of OK City because of that. Fear of traffic. I still wound up seeing tons of traffic and even getting into a jam on the more southern storm.

Regardless of the traffic, watching radar loops of the El Reno storm and seeing the tornado accelerate and turn north, it does put the fear in you. Now, I hate traffic and the El Reno storm. Both will probably be a hindrance to my chasing.

 

[Jeff Duda]

It's much more difficult to make this promise to myself, as a local to the area, but I'm very close to that point too. Over the past three to four years, more of my chases than not in C OK have been all-around unpleasant. It's true that OU and the other meteorological institutions here are one reason for our exceptional chaser convergences, but by and large, that's not the driving issue. Instead, as you hinted at, there's inevitably a swarm of completely uneducated locals -- many of whom posses questionable driving skills and practices on a fair-weather day, let alone when lookin' fer the 'nader with kids and pets in tow. It was barely manageable up until this whole business of media directives to flee the city, which I'm afraid may be a proverbial genie out of the bottle that cannot be put back now, regardless of our message going forward.

Even before El Reno, my experience on 5/20 forced some serious internal deliberation regarding C OK. I was on the Stephens-Garvin Co. storm, and experienced a solid two hours of nearly bumper-to-bumper traffic that seemed spread evenly over a 20-mile radius of the mesocyclone. Normally a fairly impatient driver, I eventually resigned myself to going 20 mph under the posted limit on highways the entire "chase" (causing me to miss most of the Velma/Bray tornado), as there were no paved routes in the area which offered better. And this was the "wrong" storm that day.

For most of us on this site, it goes against every fiber of our being to sit out high-end setups of less than an hour's drive from home. Yet, I bet I'm not the only one in OKC/OUN seriously weighing my options now.

You're not. Ditto here. Not that I had much success seeing tornadoes from May 18-May 31 in C OK anyway, but the traffic has become seriously annoying and dangerous. Way too many people driving erratically and dangerously on every road, not just dirt/gravel roads and county highways. Too many people not pulling all the way off the road; too many people walking between the white lines and simply standing on the road. Too many people suddenly stopping and turning without any signal or indication (or apparent reason). I even saw a crew from (I think) Virginia Tech University with vans loaded with instrumentation just puttering along a 65 mph road doing 30 mph or so, then taking forever to turn off the road. It's apparent that many of these people don't know much about storms since I saw a huge cluster of people stopped by a storm on May 20 with strong outflow blowing 10 miles ahead of the storm.

I didn't chase on May 31. Although I wish I had seen that monster of a tornado, at the same time I'm glad I wasn't a part of that madness. I've always had an internalized rule not to chase near OKC metro, but after my chasing failures on May 19-20, I'll admit I got a little desperate and may have been persuaded to chase May 31 if other factors unrelated to the potential traffic problems hadn't kept me home. So, when it comes down to it, this probably won't change how I chase. I've always been more cautious than the average serious chaser anyway. I pay the price sometimes by missing tornadoes or getting poor shots, but better safe than sorry, I guess. Still bothers me to know chasers like Tim, Carl, and Paul, who are generally not so aggressive, can still be caught even when practicing generally safer and more defensive chasing strategies. Since I'll never forget this event, having it constantly in the back of my head will probably do what it needs to unconsciously to keep me from becoming too much more aggressive when chasing.

ADD: As I stated in another thread related to this case (I think the one about legislation), I just hope this event serves to remind EVERYONE that, no matter how much protection they use, no matter how smart they are, no matter how much of a badass they feel like, no matter how popular their Facebook/YouTube/blog site is, it just takes one mistake...one screw-up...one scientific/statistical aberration, and you're done...dead. Hopefully everyone will back off just a little bit and turn the chasing aggression down from 11 to 10, especially on those particularly volatile days with 5000 CAPE and/or high shear and fast storm motions. You may feel compelled to justify your aggression with one of the typical reasons (saving lives, research, providing detection/warning/verification, thrill seeking), but you can't do any of that - and thus you're no good to anyone - if you're dead.

 

[Justin Wilcox]

You're right, it wouldn't have made any difference this day. But, if and when on future moderate risk or high risk days (maybe even slight) when the young couple with only a cell phone or maybe not even that with little to no study on storm motion and characteristics tells me they are going out chasing, I'll be way more inclined to try to talk them out of it. It won't bother me a bit to do so, not after Friday. That's what has changed the most for me.

Completely understood.

 

[Jacob Ferden]

That chase forever marred my perception of Oklahoma and especially OKC. I'll never chase within a county of OKC again. Way too many panicky locals with inadequate shelter, fleeing to the roads creating an even more dangerous situation for many more people. That's going to happen again when the next wedge tracks up the highway instead of a few farm fields. Hundreds will die, and I'm not going to be around for it.

I agree and yet I disagree. Where I agree with you is that not chasing near OKC is a sound strategy. However, I think that was already a reality well before May 31. Frankly, I would say the same about chasing near any other big city that is in relatively close proximity to chaseable areas (Dallas, Tulsa, Denver, Wichita, Kansas City, Omaha, Minneapolis, Chicago, etc.). If you think that at least a number of people in these areas wouldn't go into full panic mode if they knew a wedge was bearing down on them, I respectfully think you're mistaken.

Regarding what will happen the next time a situation like this arises, I would say that the panic-and-hundreds-of-deaths scenario is something that certainly may happen, but isn't necessarily inevitable. I think there were a number of unique factors in play on May 31, and a number of ongoing but certainly correctable factors as well.

Among these, in my opinion, are:

1. May 19 and 20. There is no question in my mind that people were rattled by what happened these days. And, if you think about it, there really has not been a situation like this in recent memory. Two EF5's in less than two weeks, in and near the same metro area? Three EF4 or higher tornadoes, on three separate days, in and near the same metro area? Extraordinary.

2. The media

I don't care what they or anyone else say...some of the OKC media have proven that they are nothing short of an absolute embarrassment. Anyone who would tell people to "drive south," and thus send thousands of people into gridlock deserves nothing but the highest degree of criticism and scorn.

3. A lack of preparation

The "Storm Ready Community" signs are nice, but it has been proven that many communities in central Oklahoma are anything but ready. From a lack of adequate shelters in schools to a lack of basements to a lack of community shelters to not sounding sirens til tornadoes have dissipated (see: Norman, 6/12/2009), it borders on almost farcical.

4. A lack of education about tornadoes and how to react to them

The "if you are not below ground, you will not survive" thing needs to go away, and quickly. Yes, there are situations where a violent tornado wipes the foundation clean, but these are exceptionally rare, when compared to the number of tornadoes that occur each year. I have said elsewhere on this forum that cars are death traps in tornadoes, and this has never been more painfully apparent than it is now. I'd rather take my chances in a building, *any* building with a reasonable degree of construction. If there is one image of May 31 that will never leave me, it is the aerial footage of the interstate in south Oklahoma City as the storm approached...absolute nightmare scenario.

5. A lack of education about chasing

This one reflects back on everyone, concerning the local yokels out with their flip phones. We clearly have not done an adequate job of illustrating how dangerous a hobby / passion / activity / whatever ours is. Maybe the tragedy of May 31 will help to change that. Time will tell. I have not, nor will I ever, agree with the idea that trying to forcibly restrain people from going out is the right, nor a realistic, answer. But clearly, there has to be more we can do.

The thing is, every single one of these problems is entirely correctable. Easy? No. But correctable.

So, right now, no, I won't get anywhere near the Oklahoma City metro area again while chasing, and I probably never will...El Reno has changed the way I chase going forward to a degree, just because of that.

But this isn't to say it can't be better than it was on the 31st.

 

[Hannah.Taylor]

Moore, OK changed how I chase. El Reno just affirms it. I won't chase in a major metropolitan area ever again. I saw enough when I saw the destruction in Joplin in 2011, and the things I saw with the Moore, OK tornado. I just can't handle seeing that. I'll stick to chasing out in the fields and the sticks away from everything. I just like to enjoy the beauty of the storm, not worry about all that other stuff and when something mean like that is chewing up homes, businesses and people, you just can't enjoy it or even feel good about it.

 

[Rob H]

I hate that we lost Tim and crew. It shocked me to my core, but I'll be honest and say that their deaths haven't caused me to reconsider how I chase because I didn't chase like they did. They didn't have problems because they were being reckless or because traffic snarls blocked their path (at least I hope not on the latter). Their job was to literally deploy probes directly in the path of violent tornadoes - and that automatically put them in a different class of risk than all of the rest of us. Even Reed and Sean aren't trying to get directly in the path of a violent tornado - they'll skirt the outer edge or back off if it looks really nasty.

Sullivan's video, Novy's video, the first time rancher/truckdriver/"chaser", and a few other things are what really terrified me and caused me to rethink things. If you're not deliberately trying to get in the path of every tornado, you're always going to be much more likely to die from other drivers, hydroplaning, flooding, and lightning - in that order. And the drivers in the southern plains seem to be getting worse. I never see that kind of circus north of I70.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Yes.

I will no longer chase the "big" high end severe days anywhere near OKC. Maybe a slight risk.

Too many locals going nuts. People driving 10 mph with their necks strained out the windows. Accidents blocking roads and law enforcement blocking escape routes because they don't understand storm behavior.

It was a party along highway 81 north and south of Minco. People drinking beer and stopping on the highway to talk. The picture shows the traffic on 81 right before another tornado warning. When the sirens sounded, it was panic.

I'll sit back west or southwest on the big days and work as an EMT if needed or assist other chasers.

Warren

 

[Jeff House]

I already hang back 2-5 miles so expect little change in my distance. However, my urban/suburban/exurban no-fly zone radius will increase.

Hanging back paid big dividends near Rozel/Larned, KS May 18. The second cycle with double tornado included a gorgeous detached barber pole. Also the two tornadoes were synchronized from our angle one right in front of the other, pointing the same direction. It was like synchronized swimming or pairs figure skating. One could argue photogenic finesse tornadoes are better than violent wedges.

Radius of my urban no-fly zone will increase. I was not out there last week, so never even chased May 31. However I would have stationed in El Reno thinking it's far enough. On May 20 we punted the suburban tornado in Moore, electing to wait on the east side of town near the Shawnee casino. In retrospect, that was also too close to the OKC Metro. We did not see the second tornado north of Meeker. Combination of chilling radio coverage and disturbing sight of Shawnee damage from the day before lead to a 5-10 mile safety zone. Of course we could not see the second cycle's tornado from that far. We really did not care with hearts broken, and minds on the baby angels in the school. "Baby angels" borrowed from Lawrence Kudlow.

Believe non-researchers should just punt HP supercells. Tim and his crew had to get northeast to place the probes for their job. We have the luxury/freedom to hang back to the southeast, south or even southwest. We don't have to get northeast to see into the whale's mouth. We can pick a more classic supercell on a better day. A few years ago it was very difficult to bail after all the hard work, forecasting and driving. Now chaser success rates are much higher thanks to data in the field. It's easier to wait for a better day. My success rate has improved from less than 1/3 to well over 1/2. Knowing with confidence that I can see one another day within the trip, it's relatively easy to make the safe decision and punt HP supercells.

Tim Samaras, Paul Samaras and Carl Young died gathering data vital to the continuous improvement of the warning system. They gave their lives so that others may live. No greater love than laying down one's life for another. May God somehow take the edge off the grief for their families. RIP kind gentlemen.

 

[Jesse Risley]

Yes, twice now I have chased tornadoes in urban areas (both times in Wichita, KS - 04/14/12 and 05/19/13), and each time I was in poor position and allowed myself to get into the same situation whereby a sudden leftward deviation would have spelled problematic troubles for me relative to the strength and position of the tornado. These were poor choices that I did not take as seriously until after reflecting greater upon how events last Friday played out. This is nothing to take lightly, and it doesn't even always have to do with distance, because safe distance is relative. You could be 2-3 miles away, but if you allow yourself to take too many calculated risks, what happens if you have sudden car troubles or, in a flurry of absent mindedness, you lost situational awareness for 5-10 minutes? I've always feared a situation where I was a relatively safe distance away, yet some sort of sudden car malfunction rendedered the automobile completely inoperable at the wrong time (e.g., timing belt goes out, engine blows a rod, transmission goes kaputt, crank sensor blows, etc.). It definitely makes me more cognizant of the distance factor, but also chasing in urban areas, and areas where roadblocks and congested roadways exacerbate the need for greater situational awareness vis-a-vis aforementioned distance AND position relative to the tornado or mesocyclone, given the potential for rapid fluctuations in the deviant motion of the tornado or the supercell itself.

 

[Tom Roberts]

I'm surprised that more people were willing to chase in metro areas, honestly. I guess my conservative habits forced me to develop that rule well before now, for whatever that's worth.

My chasing is limited to my local area, relatively speaking. So, no, I don't expect any change in my methodology.

As others have pointed out, the risks of chasing haven't changed. Being on the road is significantly more hazardous than the storm. I will continue to focus on the most likely hazards, since they pose the biggest threat. (Not ignoring the storm, of course.)

 

[Brandon Clement]

I'm surprised that more people were willing to chase in metro areas, honestly. I guess my conservative habits forced me to develop that rule well before now, for whatever that's worth.

My chasing is limited to my local area, relatively speaking. So, no, I don't expect any change in my methodology.

As others have pointed out, the risks of chasing haven't changed. Being on the road is significantly more hazardous than the storm. I will continue to focus on the most likely hazards, since they pose the biggest threat. (Not ignoring the storm, of course.)

Well, El Reno isn't exactly a sprawling metropolis, particularly when you are talking about south of I-40. I had zero intentions of chasing that thing into the Metro but once Hwy 81 south was shut down and everyone was forced East into Mustang there wasn't much that could be done. My plan was to drop down to 81 south and watch from south of the River while waiting to see if something else blew up along the dryline.

My chasing will not change a whole lot from day to day but I'll begin doing things quite differently on high end days. Most importantly the one thing I'll never forget is just because it hasn't happened before doesn't mean it wont happen.

 

[William Monfredo]

It's important to remember that violent tornadoes happen every year; as many already know, they're called EF-0s, EF-1s, EF-2s, etc. out in the country when they don't hit anything and there's no university around with a mobile radar. So, it's important to be consistent in your safety choices, whether you see a chasing day or week as exceptional or not.
My safety concern over the last year or two has primarily been driving in blinding rain. I just don't care to do that. And the last thing anybody needs is rain-wrapped tornado with a lot of dusty inflow. I think that's what has got me thinking and re-thinking now.