Will El Reno change how you chase?

[Jason Clark]

I posted this to /r/stormchasing on reddit, but though it would work better on here.

El Reno was historic for many reasons and painted a stark picture of what can happen when things go wrong fast. One of the shocking statistics coming out of that tornado is that it went from under 1 mile wide to 2.4 miles wide in roughly 30 seconds (according to twitter accounts and eye witness, take with a grain of salt). People that had been setup over a mile away from the funnel could have been potentially engulfed before they even had a chance to know what was happening. This has made my team start to rethink how we chase. We're not pros, but we're not yokels. We'll drive 1200 miles in a day for the right setup and then go to work the next morning. We don't make money chasing, we aren't scientist, we're a preacher, a butcher, a hacker and a student. Like most of us, we're not serving a greater good with our hobby, we're just out there watching mother nature's peep show. Now of course we help where and when we can. One of our guys has advanced first responder and CERT training, another is great with the radio, but at the end of the day we're tourists. A month ago I would have been thrilled to have been within a mile of a tornado in an open area, we've pushed it too hard at times and gotten even closer to some of the smaller ones, but I think those days are done. We're talking about changing our chase zones to be exclusively wide open areas where we can stay several miles away and essentially cutting our chases down to a few times a year. What about you?

TLDR; will you change how you chase after El Reno showed how quickly a tornado can change its characteristics?

 

[James Gustina]

I wouldn't say that it will necessarily change my chasing style, considering I never get really close to tornadoes to begin with (1 1/2 to 2 miles being my limit). But it certainly is going to change how cautious I am. I've had times before where I hadn't been paying enough attention and nearly got burned because of it (March 2, 2012 comes to mind).

 

[Skip Talbot]

Definitely. I think El Reno was an extraordinary storm. You can operate safely within the bear's cage on 100 other tornadoes, but then there's that one freak of nature that bites you. I already have a rule about not driving under wall clouds. If the tornado is on the ground, I've felt more in control about navigating around and close to it since I know where it's at and where it's going.

El Reno will make me more cautious in that regard, in maintaining my spacing away from the wall cloud and tornado cyclone even when the tornado is on the ground. I fear that many were actually underneath the tornado cyclone chasing smaller subvorts when the entire tornado cyclone spun up on their heads (what some have called, "the wall cloud landing").

That chase forever marred my perception of Oklahoma and especially OKC. I'll never chase within a county of OKC again. Way too many panicky locals with inadequate shelter, fleeing to the roads creating an even more dangerous situation for many more people. That's going to happen again when the next wedge tracks up the highway instead of a few farm fields. Hundreds will die, and I'm not going to be around for it.

 

[Robert Edmonds]

It has more affirmed how I chase. I sometimes get the impression a few people who join me storm chasing think I'm not all "in the game" because I am cautious (and thus sometimes miss tornadoes because of it). The recent events has blown that worry away. I have been looking at the damage path, and still assessing though should I have acted differently. I am more disturbed by the idea of what if it had not turned north. If anything, it makes me even warier of urban areas, or anywhere close to OKC.

 

[Sean Ramsey]

I don't think it will change how I chase, as I usually keep a safe distance. What happened Friday has always been my biggest concern, a wedge that grows on top of you and not knowing it until it's too late. This was an extremely rare circumstance where an already giant wedge basically doubled in size in less than a minute and sped up, and there wasn't much that could be done when that happened. During the beginning of the Moore tornado I had the opportunity to get right up on it, but my fear of the wedge out kept me from it. Still, going forward it may take some time before the butterflies in the belly goes away and it will always be in the back of my mind. It will probably be a lot easier to ask those who lack the experience and equipment to consider staying home when they tell me they are going out.

 

[Robert Edmonds]

It will probably be a lot easier to ask those who lack the experience and equipment to consider staying home when they tell me they are going out.

If anything I hope that's true, I have tried to tell a few people with little to no experience at various times not to go out. Largely fell on deaf ears.

 

[Rob Wadsworth]

Think one needs to really evaluate what happened first.

1) Is the tornadic storm within city limits?

No one wants to get into a city that has downed power lines and debris on the road that can puncture a tire. Talking about a city; not a small town. Or get in the way of emergency crews just to get film footage.

2) Will media coverage entice locals to go out to the storm?

The media is out there to warn the general public; those who are most likely to be affected. You cannot blame locals for going out and seeing it after the media has warned them. Or maybe you can. This outcome of the media report surely will get an increase in road congestion from locals. This all too well known already. They should be rooting; but instead become involved. They have that right. Isn't it just wiser for the chaser to keep away from locals?

3) The chances that a storm can deviate/Is there an egress route planned if it does deviate?

Statistics say that it is in the extreme and not the mean.
Success favors those prepared from eventualities.

4) ?

Just some thoughts; sure these can be added to and even changed.

 

[Rob H]

It will possibly change *where* I chase or if I chase, I've always been afraid of big cities, but Oklahoma drivers terrify me now. It won't change how I chase at all. You see a big mean HP supercell cranking away like that and forecasted eSTP of 12 - well, you better back off. I've been close before, but each time was with a decidedly non explosive environment and with a steady-state tornado that had been doing the same thing for several minutes. Crazy giant meso that's trying to touch the ground? Again, you better back off.

 

[Jason McKittrick]

So glad this thread came up. I think we all knew, with everyone continuing to push the envelope year after year, it was only a matter of time before someone got killed. However I am sure most of us thought it would happen to an untrained inexperienced amateur and not a veteran chaser on a scientific mission. It probably sounds bad to say this but I am being honest, Tim's death while tragic may save lives in the long run. He was as knowledgeable and experienced as anyone. Nobody can sit back and say he was an idiot or didn't know what he was doing and claim it will never happen to me. If it can happen to Tim, it can and eventually will again happen to anyone of us. This event has prompted me to reflect on how I chase storms. I can say that I have never seen a tornado grow as fast as the El Reno storm Friday. I would never have anticipated that happening but from now on it will always be in the back of my mind. When I began chasing I was very hesitant to put myself under the mesocyclone but after chasing hundreds of storms and experiencing over 50 tornadoes some violent I became more and more comfortable. In the last two or three years I am guilty of getting progressively closer to each successive tornado I chase. Tim's death will make me think twice about how close I really want/need to get! If this had been someone of lesser caliber I am quite certain I would have shrugged it off, confident that my skills are too good for that to happen to me. In summary, YES! this will change how I chase storms.

 

[Frank Kienast]

I first heard of this tornado on Saturday, when a friend sent me a story about the Weather Channel vehicle being carried 600 feet by a tornado. At that time, the other chaser deaths were not known/public yet. My first thought at that point was that I was not too surprised since I know TWC is known for pushing the envelope to get dramatic footage. At that point, I didn't even consider this as having any effect on what little chasing I do, because I wouldn't push the envelope like that.

Then on Sunday when I heard about the deaths of 3 very experienced and cautious chasers, I was quite shocked. I realized they know far more about tornadoes than I do, plus they are quite conservative in their approach. I also read about a storm chasing tour group that I have chased with twice before having some close calls due to the OKC traffic. No injuries, but by close calls I mean having a tornado cross the road a few hundred feet behind them as they tried to speed away. Those two things really hit home for me. I enjoy storms, but not enough that I am willing to risk my life for them. Everyone has different risk tolerance. That doesn't mean I don't admire storm chasers for what they do. I always admired astranauts as a kid but would not be willing to take the risk of being one myself even if I had ever had the necessary skills.

I live near Buffalo NY. I love taking videos of lightning, hail, and strong winds. I'm guessing I will continue to do that, because I feel the risk is low. I've lived here for 13 years and the biggest tornado in the local area blew a semi truck off the road causing minor injuries. So if there are storms likely within a few hours drive, I will probably continue chasing them. But I will have second thoughts now before going on a tour that chases in "tornado country". Doesn't mean I'll never do it again, but I'm going to wait a couple years to see what shakes out from the recent events and how chaser safety is after lessons learned this year. Also, I had considered chasing further away on my own in OH or IN (where I lived for a while) but now I am hesitant to do that and it is on hold for a year or two until I see how things turn out.

 

[Jake Orosi]

I've only recently started chasing and honestly haven't gotten anything more than $100 car washes so far. But as I stated elsewhere, this WILL influence how I chase. I will never even consider running the bear cage. Ever. If that means I'll miss a photo because it's an HP, (shrug).

 

[JamesCaruso]

This is a great thread that is at the heart of the soul-searching we are doing as chasers in the wake of this tragedy. When a relative or friend dies, particularly before his or her time, it leads us to examine the way we live our own lives. This is now playing out collectively in our small community, within the microcosm of chasing. I have enjoyed everyone's comments.

As for me, El Reno is certainly a new lesson that will be added to my knowledge base; hopefully, that knowledge will be retrieved when needed to generate the necessary situational awareness and risk mitigation. Like Skip, I always assumed that as long as I knew where the tornado was, or would be, I was safe. This concept of a tornado enlarging to such a degree, with such rapidity, was admittedly not even on my mental checklist of possible dangers - but it is now.

Avoiding large metro areas was always one of my rules, but if I had been there that day, I don't think I could have resisted the temptation to target that area, given the extremely favorable parameters, clear cut region of initiation, and lack of other viable targets. But El Reno provides a tangible example to call upon, next time this decision has to be made. Whether it enables me to resist the temptation or not, I honestly cannot say for sure. I would never chase IN a metro area, but will I be able to say no to any opportunity in a 30-50 mile radius? Or let a storm go once it gets within a certain distance of a city? Possibly not...

Other than that, I do not see needing to change much in my chasing strategy. I have always been aware of my limitations and fairly cautious. If anything, I tend to underestimate distance from the meso/wall cloud/tornado. I am not at all aggressive with HPs. I almost feel "inadequate" in this regard compared to other chasers; I always feel like I need to be a little more aggressive, considering how long I have been doing this and how many tornados I have missed...

And you know what? I still feel that way. If you envision a continuum from "most conservative" on the left to "most aggressive" on the right, I still feel that there is plenty of room for me to move the needle to the right while still remaining safe. I am not talking about being overly aggressive; I am simply saying that I felt I needed to move in that direction to some reasonable degree before, and El Reno does not change that for me. It would be easy for me to use El Reno to validate my conservative strategy to date, but I feel that would be a cop-out, an excuse not to challenge myself.

The reality is that we all take calculated risks to chase at all, just like we take calculated risks when we drive, fly, climb mountains, sky dive, whatever. The El Reno event is so rare, with a bizarre convergence of meteorological anomalies and human factors (evacuations/traffic). It is an extreme outlier, a "Black Swan." A possible repeat might be a reasonable risk factor to consider on another similarly volatile day, or on a storm that already has a wedge on the ground or a particularly large and low meso / wall cloud. But I think it would be an overstatement of the true risk level to chase every tornadic storm as if a recurrence of the El Reno tornado's behavior is a significant risk factor.

We may be gun-shy for awhile, but human nature makes it likely that will only be temporary - in the same way that our introspection after the death of a relative or friend is short-lived, and we inevitably go back to living our lives the way we always did.

I pray for the souls of our chaser friends, and for the Lord to bring comfort and peace to their families.

 

[Mike Johnston]

No, it won't change the way I chase because I have always been a consistently "chicken-hearted" chaser. My rule of thumb has always been that I don't like what I can't see. So, you'll never find me chasing at night, so-called punching a core, chasing through a metropolitan area, or chasing where visibility is impaired for whatever reason such as trees or hills. I'm a horrible photographer, so trying to get or sell video footage isn't even a concern. I always approach a storm from a 90 degree angle from the path of movement; if I can't do it from there, I won't do it at all. I would never put myself or my children in harm's way, and, if other folks think that doesn't make me a "real chaser" then so be it.

 

[Justin Wilcox]

If anything I hope that's true, I have tried to tell a few people with little to no experience at various times not to go out. Largely fell on deaf ears.

With all due respect, chasing experience wouldn't have made any difference, and neither would having better/ bigger equipment. Not on this day.

 

[Brett Roberts]

That chase forever marred my perception of Oklahoma and especially OKC. I'll never chase within a county of OKC again. Way too many panicky locals with inadequate shelter, fleeing to the roads creating an even more dangerous situation for many more people. That's going to happen again when the next wedge tracks up the highway instead of a few farm fields. Hundreds will die, and I'm not going to be around for it.

It's much more difficult to make this promise to myself, as a local to the area, but I'm very close to that point too. Over the past three to four years, more of my chases than not in C OK have been all-around unpleasant. It's true that OU and the other meteorological institutions here are one reason for our exceptional chaser convergences, but by and large, that's not the driving issue. Instead, as you hinted at, there's inevitably a swarm of completely uneducated locals -- many of whom posses questionable driving skills and practices on a fair-weather day, let alone when lookin' fer the 'nader with kids and pets in tow. It was barely manageable up until this whole business of media directives to flee the city, which I'm afraid may be a proverbial genie out of the bottle that cannot be put back now, regardless of our message going forward.

Even before El Reno, my experience on 5/20 forced some serious internal deliberation regarding C OK. I was on the Stephens-Garvin Co. storm, and experienced a solid two hours of nearly bumper-to-bumper traffic that seemed spread evenly over a 20-mile radius of the mesocyclone. Normally a fairly impatient driver, I eventually resigned myself to going 20 mph under the posted limit on highways the entire "chase" (causing me to miss most of the Velma/Bray tornado), as there were no paved routes in the area which offered better. And this was the "wrong" storm that day.

For most of us on this site, it goes against every fiber of our being to sit out high-end setups of less than an hour's drive from home. Yet, I bet I'm not the only one in OKC/OUN seriously weighing my options now.