Who's itching for spring season already?

[afischer]

I'm pretty sure there's a place where you can find a map of snow cover across the US, but I couldn't tell you where to find it. Maybe someone else knows?

I had taken a gander at the weather channel's online snowfall map and it suggested 4-8" in those areas, but I suspected there were higher amounts. As you said, this will definitely slow the warming process.

Luckily we only have a few inches here in the KC area to get rid of, which should go pretty quickly Sunday-Monday. And Topeka and Pleasant Hill have added elevated thunder to the zones Friday night. Yippee!!

 

[Scott Olson]

Mike Umscheid and Jay Antle were on that storm (though I think they only caught the end stage of the tornado). Though the part of interest is releatively short, I'd agree with Chris that there is some evidence of rotation (the intense multiple vortex action just bellow the bands, a circular area of condensation around one of the bands briefly and the single tubular feature that directly proceeds them). That's a bit more deduced than based on that couple seconds low-res video. Perhaps it's not the case with those intial four bands but that single one certainly looks it. As Mike noted with his observations of the full video, they seem to take on characteristics of multiple vortices (with some horizontal orientation) as they near the tornado. Very Neat!

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/nebraska/imageMV7.JPG

http://hometown.aol.com/astrosfan1/columbus1.jpg

As for next weekend, I'm also looking at this system with interest. The intial system seems to weaken quicker as it moves east and second one has slowed from it's intial location. The moisture fields have certainly improved from what they were several days ago.

UPDATE: I've put together a blog post with some more thoughts on next weekends system.http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/www.axisofnature.com/WordPress/index.php

 

[Jeff Miller]

I am itching for:

1. The smell of petrichor.
2. The sound of a lawnmower.
3. Morning BIRDS!
4. Spring green. I LOVE Spring greenery.
5. Strong warm front FROPA.
6. Thunder. Duh.
7. Sunscreen!
8. Actually being able to drive with WINDOWS OPEN.
9. Two words: HOT and HUMID.
11. And of COURSE...chasing.
12. The sound of leaves rustling through trees.
13. Picnics. And watermelon.
14. White hot lightning waking me up at 5:14 AM.
15. Taking morning walks again!
16. EAS Tones.

 

[William Rayner]

I'm really pumped that a lot of people are mentioning the Panhandle. We land in Amarillo May 30 for 2 weeks of chasing.
C'mon Spring --- get here and do your stuff!

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Good lord at the 18z gfs....for a day later(sat).

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/AVN/OFFAVN/avn_usUS_500_spd_180.gif

March 12 comes early this year?

 

[afischer]

To continue the dreamcast...

Not only has the 18Z GFS slowed the system considerably, but it also forecasts very impressive BL moisture becoming established out ahead of it! http://www.weather.cod.edu/forecast/AVN/OFFAVN/avn_usUS_850_dewp_168.gif

The 12Z Euro has also slowed things down, and closes the low off over the TX panhandle by 12Z Saturday... suggesting a possible cold core play later in the day over Kansas. Cold core would certainly be preferred over a warm sector chase if the meridional-ish mid-level jet screaming at 90-100kts ends up verifying.

 

[Chris C Sanner]

Well you guys beat me to the punch. KWTV's Met. mentioned severe weather with the system next Friday which alerted me to the situation as I usually don't seriously start model watching until the last week of February. Right now, I'm hoping the forecast continues to slow a few more hours so its not in the territory its forecasted in right now. Anywhere in that area of the country is TERRIBLE chase country as many of us have found out in the past couple of years. It seems like these early season systems always tend to slow down in the models as time approaches. I'll be keeping my fingers crossed

OUN AFD talks about next weekends system:

THIS EVENING...DEEPLY MIXED COOL...DRY...AND WINDY AIR WAS
MOVING OFFSHORE...AND SHOULD PROMOTE STRONG VERTICAL MOISTURE FLUX
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
MAY RESULT IN DEEP MOISTURE RETURN THAT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
COAST DURING THE TUESDAY STORM SYSTEM. BUT WILL THEN MAKE ITS WAY
NORTH IN TIME FOR THE FRI/SAT SYSTEM.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=OUNAFDOUN

 

[Joel Wright]

Wow. My jaw just dropped as I looked at the 00z GFS. Has anyone else looked at this thing yet? I realize this is a long way out, but it has been very consistent. It shows a 976mb low in Wisconsin by early AM the 25th (Sun).

This storm seems to be getting stronger each model run. If this were to pan out there could be a major early season severe weather outbreak over areas now buried under damn near a foot of snow. Because of that I will remain highly skeptical for now.

Even so, man, I'm really excited for spring now!

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

One thing I don't like about the system as it stands now on the gfs is the very backed nature to the 500mb flow(guessing that won't change much). If it winds up like that I'd say somewhere very north or very south would be the best bets....near the strong sfc low or down under some more veered mid-level flow(gulf?). I'll take thunder if it means only having to go to IA or maybe ne KS if it slows down...that along with maybe a nasty blizzard chase. That is one thing that can make these early systems interesting for someone driving a Mustang. I remember one February chase I somehow made it back home(after seeing very few cars on I-29) only to get stuck in the middle of the intersection next to my appartment. I was all celebrating how crazy it was I kept my car rolling on I-29 and made it, only to get stuck there, within throwing distance of my front door.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

One thing I don't like about the system as it stands now on the gfs is the very backed nature to the 500mb flow(guessing that won't change much). If it winds up like that I'd say somewhere very north or very south would be the best bets....near the strong sfc low or down under some more veered mid-level flow(gulf?). I'll take thunder if it means only having to go to IA or maybe ne KS if it slows down...that along with maybe a nasty blizzard chase. That is one thing that can make these early systems interesting for someone driving a Mustang. I remember one February chase I somehow made it back home(after seeing very few cars on I-29) only to get stuck in the middle of the intersection next to my appartment. I was all celebrating how crazy it was I kept my car rolling on I-29 and made it, only to get stuck there, within throwing distance of my front door.


Edit: Then again if the drypunch would be that hard and that far to the east, perhaps things would be out away from the extremely backed flow aloft. You know it's nearing spring when one becomes so concerned with 7 day progs. Sucks Sunday isn't even out of the way yet and this is for next Saturday.

 

[Morgan Palmer]

I agree with the opinion that the game isn't afoot yet. Though, next weekend is such an eye-opener! Beginning to see systems like this (instead of deep freeze) is like being woken up by the newspaper delivery person beaning the front door... with the news that the time has come for the warmth to battle north.

If anyone needed another sign, pitchers and catchers reported to many Spring Training facilities over the past couple of days. Growing up playing baseball, from T-Ball to until I went to high school, there's nothing like the first practice, or Spring Training. Everything is set to become new again, the grass will soon turn green... hopefully so will the sky! (just no hail on my truck)

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

I saw my first robin of the year today granite that robin was unsuccessfully digging trough a solid 4 in of snow to find food.

 

[Billy Griffin]

I'm itching for spring, yes, but I also can't help but notice these recent "Armegeddon" threads that keep popping up. It seems like with each passing year, the first one or two (or more) series of storm systems is forecast to kick out earlier and earlier each year, along with the predictions of impending doom and end-of-the-world outlooks. I know everyone's anxious for storm season to get here, no more than I am. And I'd also like nothing more than for storm season to kick off in February and last through November, but I think it's going to be kind of tough to get a huge outbreak this time of year. No, it's not impossible, it's happened before, but I just hate to see everyone go running off to KY, TN, etc. (spending loads of money) for the first big forecast outbreak of the year, that inevitably, ends up a bust. With that said, yes, I am ready for spring! It was very difficult on my family and myself when we moved from Oklahoma up to Washington, just in the change in latitude and the amount of daylight hours decreasing so much. It was a real challenge back around Christmas, when the sun didn't come up until after 8am and set before 3:30... not to mention with all the cloudy days. Now, we're adding 3 minutes of daylight each day!

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

You can tell spring is coming when I'm beginning to be late to morning classes because I insist on checking the 12Z model run before I head out the door.

 

[Jason Boggs]

THE ITCH JUST MIGHT GET SCRATCHED TODAY!!!