Updated Forecast for 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[Randy Zipser]

ABC News posted this story on 08/07/2025 about an updated forecast for the remainder of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season:

Above-normal activity predicted for remainder of 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA says

 

[William Monfredo]

Not really a fan of lameness masquerading as a forecast. From the article, NOAA...
"There is now a 50% chance of an above-normal season, a 35% chance of a near-normal season and a 15% chance of a below-normal season."
Gee, let me flip a coin...Once again, a somewhat misleading headline.
"...forecasting 13 to 18 total named..."
and NOAA applies the names...oh, that's cozy.
Not to sound negative, but there's little utility to coastal residents here; remember, people live in specific locations, not in a probability scheme.

 

[Randy Zipser]

Not to sound negative, but there's little utility to coastal residents here; remember, people live in specific locations, not in a probability scheme.

I beg to differ with you, William. Here is the latest (as of 08/06/2025) update from the late Dr. William Gray's group at Colorado State University:
https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2025-08.pdf

CSU's reputation in the field of hurricane prediction is widely unquestioned. As you can see, their predictions are filled with probabilities associated with specific coastal locations!

The ABC News article is written for consumption by the general public. By comparison, CSU's article is much more detailed and useful to an audience like ST: in particular, please see Table 10 on page 48. When comparing the two, your statement rings a bit hollow, IMHO (not intended as a negative criticism, just a constructive observation for the purpose of further discussion)...

 

[William Monfredo]

I liked William Gray...when he was still alive; heard him speak, too.
My peers & I appreciated his academic exercises, but realized the personal impracticality of it all.
We questioned it and him. NOAA's the issue here now, and regrettably, they decided to get in on the act and do a poor imitation of him.
It holds no meaning for me; it's not news. 50 % chance of above in an ocean? Golly, a coin toss. Respectfully, that doesn't fly for me any time.

 

[Randy Zipser]

NOAA's the issue here now, and regrettably, they decided to get in on the act and do a poor imitation of him.

O.K., fair enough. I agree with you that NOAA will never do as thorough a job at tropical cyclone prediction as Dr. Gray's CSU group does. Especially nowadays in this DOGE era. But tropical cyclone prediction is not as much the focus for NOAA as tropical cyclone public warning is.

Dr. Gray became sort of a celebrity (and "face" of the CSU program) in the field of hurricane prediction, but the CSU hurricane-prediction group still continues his work and makes improvements in its annual modeling based upon analysis of previous-year data. NOAA, despite its flaws, is still better than nothing at all.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is a division of the NOAA/NWS co-located at the Florida International University in Miami, FL. It was called the Tropical Prediction Center between 1995 and 2010, after which it was renamed the NHC. Besides issuing regular tropical cyclone updates for the U.S. public for the North Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Basins, the NHC puts together detailed final reports of all major land-falling hurricanes that impact the CONUS. These reports certainly have value and meaning to many American citizens, particularly to those who were affected.

The bottom line is that NOAA (NHC) is far from "useless" in hurricane protection for U.S. citizens, despite some of its other shortcomings.

 

[William Monfredo]

Thanks for the PR about the NHC.
I am often appreciative of their work, even if the naming of storms sometimes appears capricious or occasionally self-serving.

Here's my short-term perspective. When was the last time you saw the entire world's tropics this dead on Labor Day weekend (CIMMS)?
Without getting too wordy, we can see the uptick after a week & a half or so, and I will be watching the Gulf.

To quote NOAA: Outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast. Landfalls are largely determined by short-term weather patterns, which are only predictable within about a week of a storm potentially reaching a coastline.

 

[Boris Konon]

As we saw last year, the climo heart of the NHEMI TC season is being taken out w/ unusually low activity. Yes, we know what happened later in Sep and in Oct in the Atlantic last year, but the pattern is much different than last year (we don’t have nearly the anomalous warm SSTs in the Atlantic, as one example).

The overall pattern in the MDR in the tropical Atlantic has been quite unfavorable this season thus far w/ lots of Saharan dust and dry air present. Now, TUTTs (tropical upper tropospheric troughs) reign supreme in the next week w/ the peak of the season climo in the next 10 days. See the ECMWF 250 mb forecast valid 00z Wed and 12z Sat this week I attached. I outlined the TUTTs, and these being present typically puts the brakes on TC development.

And outside the MDR in the Gulf and western Atlantic, it is no better. A persistent trough in the eastern U.S. has resulted in a jet/high shear across these areas, so no dice here either UFN.

The global models have suggested the wave coming off Africa currently may develop, and the 8/31 12z GFS and ECMWF showed a hurricane eventually recurving out to seas in the Atlantic, but the 9/1 00z ECMWF has backed off significantly, showing at best a weak TS through 10 days. The 00z GFS continues to show a hurricane, but the GFS has a serious bias in over-intensifying waves into hurricanes in the long range and spinning up TCs out of nowhere beyond a week. It has had this bias for years, so it should be discounted at this time. The fact that the ECMWF backed off, and the GDPS is similar to the ECMWF, seems to suggest they recognize the hostile conditions in the Atlantic currently and for the next week, so I would go w/ their idea concerning the handling of the wave off Africa now.

I attached the 2025 NHEMI TC stats through 8/31.

It should be noted that in the 5 years 2020-2024, 4 of those 5 have been significantly below avg for global ACE (less than 80% of avg) w/ only 2023 being a bit above at 109%. We are now heading for 5 of 6 years significant below avg. I would argue this is something that should not be ignored. What prevent TCs from developing/getting intense is just as important as to what promotes them! But the current prevailing mainstream narrative largely shuns this important aspect of TCs as to pertains to climate change.

Sure, the Atlantic has been very active in recent decades, but as I have mentioned before, there is world outside the Atlantic basin and the Atlantic only accounts for 15% of annual avg global ACE. Cherry-picking has been going on here using the Atlantic as "proof" of worse conditions. If one is to talk about climate, it needs to be looked at on a global scale, not only local areas that fit one's predilections.

The 2025 NHEMI season has been less than stellar so far. The Atlantic is the only one close to avg, all others are below. Yes, numbers of named storms in the NHEMI so far is a bit above avg (34 vs. an avg of 32), but the stats that count, such as hurricane days, major hurricane days, and ACE (accumulated cyclone energy) are significantly below avg. NHEMI ACE is only 56% of avg season-to-date. This one reason why merely forecasting number of named storms doesn’t cut it as to telling the complete story. All the named storms in the world mean little for ACE if they are largely short-lived and weak. ACE is the best metric since it weighs heavily toward intense TCs and how long they remain intense.

 

[Randy Zipser]

The 12Z long-range GFS model run on 09/04 shows some possible action for Florida and the SE Atlantic coast about two weeks out. These runs all day today have been pretty consistent with developing a strong tropical system, and have been translating the track westward throughout the day today so that it now will make more than one landfall in the CONUS should this forecast verify [of course, it's still a long way off, so track and intensity can certainly (and hopefully) change, keeping it east of the U.S. East Coast]. In one of the runs earlier today, a larger, more intense hurricane tracks parallel to and off the FL east coast before making landfall as a major (934mb) Cat 4/5 in the Savannah, GA, to Charleston, SC, area.

In this 12Z model run, a weaker tropical cyclone crosses the SW to east-central FL peninsula on September 17-18 and slams into the Charleston area as a Cat 1 hurricane on September 19. However, the 18Z GFS model run keeps this system well east of the U.S. coastline with no impact. So much for run-to-run consistency for the long-range models...!

Attached below are some screenshots (in reverse chronological order) from tonight's 12Z run (see Pivotal Weather):

 

[Warren Faidley]

It's all about minor shifts this far out, which add up big time down the line. I leaning towards a fish storm right now, but that could change in the next 4-5 days.

 

[Randy Zipser]

I leaning towards a fish storm right now

Yeah, Warren, I agree. The 09/05 06Z run continues to be leaning that way. However it also shows a persistent weak cyclonic circulation in the Gulf and east of the FL peninsula during that period which appears never to develop, as there is strong wind shear over the SE U.S. However, late in the period (09/21), something tries to develop in the SW Gulf (same area as Milton last year)...

 

[Randy Zipser]

Update from ABC News about predictions for the rest of the 2025 Atlantic Basin hurricane season (at climatological peak today):

It is now peak hurricane season: What to expect for storms in the Atlantic

 

[Boris Konon]

The ABC article in the previous post is very generic and doesn't tell the entire story (no disrespect to you Randy!). Here's my answer to that. What you typically *won't* hear in the MSM.

Atlantic wide-view WV image from 14/1745z and 14/12z ECMWF 250 mb 00 hr analysis attached.

This is among the worst patterns you can have the Atlantic during the peak TC season - "worse" meaning TC suppression. Four discrete upper lows present lined up W to E FL to the Azores. This takes out the MDR, subtropics, and mid-latitudes for TC genesis. And the upper low over FL, that is quite strong so far S for mid-Sep w/ its influence into Central America.

Yes, I know NHC is watching a wave WSW of Cabo Verde currently, but it will take several days to develop at least, if it even develops. The last wave in this area that had a high chance of developing into a TC failed, which is something you rarely see at the peak of the hurricane season (another tidbit that gets ignored by the MSM).

We need to ask, "what causes such a pattern?" What is happening is non-trivial as to how it relates to TCs and the Atlantic seasonal forecasts. A similar pattern happened last year during the peak of the season, so it is not an isolated anomaly.

There is a lot of focus on what makes TCs more intense and frequent, but it is just as important to know what doesn't make them like this. And by studying the suppression factors more, it is by default we end up learning other random things incidentally about the entire TC process and environment. I know this does not have the flash-bang appeal from a media and funding standpoint, but I find this all fascinating b/c it makes us more learned on the wx subject all-around. How many times do people sternly state, "you said this would happen, and *it didn't*!!" Isn't there value in having a reason on hand, or even better, recognize potential forecast bust factors leading up to an event or season?

And in other parts of the NHEMI, it is no better. All four TC basins (ATLC, EPAC, WPAC, NIO) as below avg for accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) which is the best metric overall IMHO to measure TC activity. In fact, the WPAC is only 35% of avg season-to-date, which is among the least active in some time so late into the season, No major typhoons (100 kt or more) have occurred yet. This is the second latest on record (1945-present) this TC basin has not had a major typhoon (#1 is Sep 21).

For the NHEMI TC season, the ACE season-to-date is only 55% of avg. Odds appear were are headed for another significantly below avg (<80% of normal) global ACE year, which will make 5 out of the last 6.

None of this shows up in the MSM. I wonder why? /s

Boris