NOAA's Forecast for U.S. 2025-26 Winter Season

[Randy Zipser]

CBS News came out today with a story about the forecast for the upcoming U.S. winter season for temperature and precipitation, based upon data from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center:

Maps show NOAA's new winter forecast for the U.S. Here's what to know.

 

[William Monfredo]

The kind of "forecast" I like includes temperature in degrees F and precipitation in inches.
I want to know what are my temperature & precipitation departures from the norm...numbers I can work with.
On the other hand, NOAA forecasts probabilities only, shown here, which is rather unambitious / uninformative.
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I do not consider forecasting chances without any real numbers relating to temperature and precipitation totals as very robust.
To better forecast these sorts of things, how about 3 degrees below the normal or 1 & 1/2 times the mean precipitation...for ex.

 

[JamesCaruso]

I just want some good snowstorms and nor’easters!

 

[Randy Zipser]

Frankly, I'm amazed that they got this study published at all, considering the current Fed gov't shutdown and the hatchet job that DOGE did on the NOAA climate center this past spring!

 

[William Monfredo]

I generally don't put a lot of stock in seasonal forecasts, but WeatherBell certainly took an early stance...August 28th using degrees F.
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I just want some good snowstorms and nor’easters!

WeatherBell's snowfall as a percent of normal, from first flake to last...may your weather dreams come true!

 

[Randy Zipser]

WeatherBell certainly took an early stance...

At least WeatherBell and the NOAA Climate Prediction Center are in good agreement that the SW and SE U.S. will be warmer than normal this winter. James may have to venture into central or western PA/NY to realize his wish...if WeatherBell's forecast verifies. We'll be looking for some posted pics, James!

BTW, if this pattern verifies for the Southeast, it would not be unusual for daytime temps in FL to reach into the mid-80F range in December-February. I've even observed temps into the upper 80's in central FL on New Year's day.