Where is ST really headed and what does it need?

[John Farley]

OK, reluctantly I am going to wade into this because I think a lot of the discussion here doesn't have too much do to with what led to this thread being here in the first place. So here are a few points I would like to make, some based on rather systematic research, and others purely on impression.

FIRST - On the topic of noise in the Target Area section - Yes, there are some uninformative and off-topic posts - but it is not a high proportion of posts and I am not convinced that it is higher than it was 5 years ago. I decided to look at some actual data on this, so I read the whole thing of each of the last five FCST threads. Now, maybe these aren't representative, but they represent at least some real data and I don't think they are too different from what we have had most of this year. Here is what I found on these five threads:
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10/12 - 7 posts. A couple contained model discussion and forecast reasoning, but most were nothing you couldn't have gotten by reading NWS forecasts and discussions. Overall, an uninformative thread, IMHO.

10/8 - 13 posts, maybe one debatable, but nothing obviously problemmatic. SPC never mentioned. Overall, pretty much what a FCST thread should be, IMHO.

10/4 - 34 posts, all focused on models and/or meteorological factors involved in the setup. Only one mention of SPC that I saw, and that in the context of what the models were saying. Again, pretty much what a FCST thread should be, IMHO.

10/1 - 55 posts. I saw some confusion and looseness about the specific dates, especially in the early part, but the posts throughout focused on the meteorological forces at work and/or model forecasts. Only a handful of references to SPC, and those were guesses as to what they might do based on the models. Other than failure to stick to the date, or some confusion about the date, a reasonable thread.

9/30 - 30 posts. 5 of little value and/or off-topic, but the rest addressed models and/or meteorological parameters at work. The signal to noise ratio was a little lower here, but still about 5:1. Not bad, IMHO.
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So out of five threads, four were pretty much what a FCST thread is supposed to be. Now, a lot of the forecasts were wrong, largely because the models changed as the date got closer. Hence, one could argue too much faith was put in models too far ahead of the event, but that happens when people get excited after a long period of relatively quiet weather. There are some useless posts, but it is a small percentage. It seems to me that this could be easily handled by Mods issuing warnings or deleting useless/non-compliant posts. (Now it could be that there were more off-topic or useless posts in these threads that have been deleted so they escaped my analysis, but what I saw when I looked at the threads just now is pretty much what I remembered).

SECOND - The reason this thread is here at all is because of two threads that erupted into flame wars. At least one was in B & G (I don't recall where the other was), so at least one had nothing with the quality of FCST or DISC threads. So whatever quality issues there may be with Target Area, those problems are not the main reason why we have been having all the arguments lately.

THIRD - I am not convinced that these problems are mainly linked to new users, inexperienced chasers, or non-chasers on the list. Many of the complaints, flames, and provocative statements that have fueled the arguments have come from long-time members and experienced chasers. Yes, there are newbies and non-chasers that contribute to this, too, but I am not at all convinced that they do so disproportionately. In fact, many are hesitant to post because they don't want to get flamed.

FOURTH - (and there are systematic studies that back up this general point) All discussion boards, email lists, etc. erupt into periodic flame wars. There is nothing too unusual about what has been happening on ST lately. (Some of you old-timers may remember when lots of people hopefully migrated over here to get away from the flame wars on WX-CHASE.) Fortunately, it is also true that these outbreaks run their cycles and subside after a while. The growing size, and therefore diversity - of personality, politics, religion, communication style, chase style, experience, etc. - on ST increases the chance of such outbreaks. And of course, we have been in a prolonged period of quiet weather, especially in areas where people mostly chase, and in a quieter than average year. All of this contributes to the potential for flame wars. I am not convinced that it is mostly because we have a lot of inexperienced chasers or weather enthusiasts that don't chase. All of us were in those categories at some time in the past. Yes, that is one more element of diversity, but even take away the newbies and non-chasers, and a list with over 1800 people on it is going to have occasional eruptions of opinion differences.

FIFTH - The biggest source of disagreement is B & G. I don't know whether it is a good idea to continue it or not, but it is not related to weather and chasing and there are plenty of other places on the Web to discuss any of the topics in B & G. I'd still hang out on ST if the B & G wasn't there, but OTOH I think those who are offended by certain topics that come up there could also simply avoid it.

SIXTH and finally, if anyone is still listening - Strong opinions are great, and I have expressed them all my life. But I think it is important to be respectful to others even in the expression of strong opinions. There are ways to say that you totally disagree with someone without insulting them or resulting to name-calling. It IS possible to tell it like you belive it is in a way that does not insult people, and if you do state your opinions in a strong but respectful way, you might just swing more people to your point of view.

 

[Charley Kelly]

I agree with previous post that suggest ST should break up to two separate forum parts, one for spotters and one for chasers. I think it would go over well if you could actually develop a process to prove a person is one or the other.

It is likely impossible to truely separate the two groups, but its rather easy to separate the quality of post. Perhaps setting up where there is restrictions based on quality of post, but not restricting who can view the post can improve ST. Just a few ideas of mine as Id like to see ST go back to the way it was when I first joined ST before going to ULM to get my degree in atmospheric sciences.

It sad to know we have lost many veteran chasers due to senseless flame wars, but more so to the continued downward spiral of quality post in a number of sections like forecast and nowcast threads.

Im seen plenty of great ideas I hope to see enacted that would improve ST, just my two cents on the matter.

 

[Bob Hartig]

FIFTH - The biggest source of disagreement is B & G. I don't know whether it is a good idea to continue it or not, but it is not related to weather and chasing and there are plenty of other places on the Web to discuss any of the topics in B & G. I'd still hang out on ST if the B & G wasn't there, but OTOH I think those who are offended by certain topics that come up there could also simply avoid it.

SIXTH and finally, if anyone is still listening - Strong opinions are great, and I have expressed them all my life. But I think it is important to be respectful to others even in the expression of strong opinions. There are ways to say that you totally disagree with someone without insulting them or resulting to name-calling. It IS possible to tell it like you belive it is in a way that does not insult people, and if you do state your opinions in a strong but respectful way, you might just swing more people to your point of view.

I think you've made a number of really great points, John. From my perspective, you've made a great deal of sense, from defining what this discussion has actually been about to the complaints about lack of substance in forecast threads, and more.

I want to speak in particular to your last two points. First, re the B&G, I've been thinking the same thing. I enjoy it when it's innocent fun, but it's not really germane to storm chasing, and if it's going to be a cause of contention that breeds antagonism in the forum, then I can live without it just fine.

As for your last point, no need for me to expand on it. I just want to say, Amen!

 

[Robert Edmonds]

When I first came to storm track I was new to storm chasing. I think I had chased only a few years. I had learned mostly on my own, and I was still relatively inexperienced at chasing. At the beginning I learned allot from, and was somewhat reliant on storm track to help me nail down some ideas.

However, today it is far different. Today I am a graduate of an astrophysics program, and am now in a graduate student in astronomy. Due to my interest in weather, my research interests are significantly different from what I thought I would be researching in astronomy. I am now active in planetary weather modeling.

What saddens me is that I have now reached a point where most of my questions can no longer be answered by the community at large here at storm track. While I have plenty of people to turn to ask questions to in my research which deals with non-earth atmospheres, it is difficult for me to quickly get in touch with people who can answers the questions which are indirectly related to my research, and are usually earth/storm chasing focused. It is weird to me being able to freely communicate with the astronomical science community, but find difficulty when trying to communicate with the meteorological science community. The few times I have tried, I usually have had to use my few contacts within the astronomical community that know people in the meteorological community, but even then I have found resistance to answer questions. It is understandable since we are busy professionals in our respective professions, but I more and more have come to believe there should be more interdisciplinary discussion. My only good fortune is that usually I can find the answers to the questions I have in scientific journals. However, I find it to be a much slower way of learning. This is because another person can usually help guide you through the stumbling blocks that they too once encountered.

I think my discussion above shows that I wish there was more advanced weather/modeling related discussion on this board. However, I’m not sure of what the future for storm track will actually be. It’s hard to call the advanced weather discussion advanced, when I’m not even sure the term navier stokes has ever come up. My only suggestion is that we move past this bickering, which is likely small posturing for “status”, even if it is subconscious. Instead, storm track should try to cultivate an even stronger atmosphere of learning. And with a utopia like closing statement, maybe then we might see people return to this board willing to share their knowledge.

 

[Connor McCrorey]

The flame war was already started (don't say I started it) and it only made matters worse when I posted I was reporting the thread. From here on out I will just hit the report button only.

You've said this about ten thousand times in the past week. I really have nothing against you Matthew, but could you please stop saying it and just do it?

I agree that it would be wonderful if the forum could start cutting out lurkers/non-chasers. Like Kris, I read ST for a long time before becoming a member, and I had no problem with not being able to post while I wasn't experienced.

I'm torn on whether or not to allow the public to view forecast threads. The main argument for not allowing this is that it will cut down on "leaches" who just read our targets and go there. I think this is a good point, but I also remember that one of the main reasons I applied to become a member here in the first place was how impressed I was by the quality of the forecast threads (at least back then). Any other opinions on this?

 

[Steve Miller]

I'm torn on whether or not to allow the public to view forecast threads. The main argument for not allowing this is that it will cut down on "leaches" who just read our targets and go there. I think this is a good point, but I also remember that one of the main reasons I applied to become a member here in the first place was how impressed I was by the quality of the forecast threads (at least back then). Any other opinions on this?

Why is it the B&G is the thread hidden from the public? Why isn't it the forecast threads? Sure, 98% of us on here are amateur forecasters but 9 times out of 10 we manage a decent target area through the forecast threads and just anyone can view them and drive right to where we discuss to go. Shouldn't this be a "feature" for members of ST, especially now that they are paying members?
This is an easy fix. How about a poll for hidden forecast threads too?

 

[Scott Hammel]

I think removing the B&G section completely off the website for the off season might be something interesting to try and could help reduce a lot of the tension experienced lately while keeping discussions solely focused on weather. I also like the idea of keeping newer members out of certain parts until they meet a criteria; maybe until their post count reaches a designated number or if they demonstrate an appropriate knowledge level, or something along those lines? I still consider myself new to this forum and try to make good contributions where I can. I try not to blatantly post just because I can, while also trying to only contribute to threads where my knowledge level is on par with what is being discussed. It can be quite intimidating sometimes! I really enjoy reading everyone's posts (whether they are strongly opinionated or not) and think the overall dynamic that everyone brings to the table is what makes this forum so enjoyable.

I do think that maybe taking a breather, if you will, from the B&G section for everyone might let some of the misunderstandings calm down a bit. Also tightening down some of the sections (even if this possibly disqualifies myself) from newer, inexperienced members might be a way to filter out the new people that are just here to read targets and have no interest in forecasting on their own nor contributing to the forum as a whole.

To Lanny, Shane, and others who are frustrated with the current state of things; I'm not really sure what can be done here to alleviate all of that frustration 100% but I personally don't find anything you guys write to be offensive or out of line. I don't know any of you personally but I think your guys absence on this board would be a shame as I find most of your posts to be informative, well intentioned, but often misunderstood. Just my .02

 

[Paul Hadfield]

SDS has been talked to death but I would think to have a US Severe Season as well as an Atlantic Tropical go bust back to back is kind of unusual. Who's to say that in 2010, all hell breaks loose and just like that, ST pops back on track because everyone has their game face back on? Perhaps StormTrack isn't broke, it's just dormant and we're just experiencing Enhanced SDS (ESDS)? You can say I am a newb to the forum (hate that term but whatever) however, just this year versus last, the vibe is completely different and was more positive. Also too, last year we had fair amount of wx activity which IMO kept people focused on the theme.

Maybe this is why the veterans have been quiet and has nothing to do with all the fluff?

Dealing with non-chasers is one thing, good luck trying to prove who is versus who isn't but lurkers aren't so bad... at least with them, they don't run the risk of looking foolish (mwah), potentially offending others or perpetuating drama by clicking reply. I would like to see less chastising of noobs and more encouragement. Noobs are people, many times total strangers and are often of extremely gifted intelligence or outstanding character, they just don't possess above average meteorological knowledge.

FCAST thread, wish I had more to offer, sorry that I don't. If it became exclusive, might as well count me out but then what about the person who contributes elsewhere? Shouldn't they still be accepted? Doesn't really matter, all of this boils down to micro managing and trying to compartmentalize a forum that really just needs STORMS to get all the cylinders firing again.

Granted, if it ain't broke don't fix it but I'm with Steve on hiding the entire target area section. At the very least I like knowing that any material I post be it pictures or links is reserved for members only and not readily available to just anyone. That of course is a whole separate by product of the debate but I felt that way when it was opened up in the first place. Regardless, whatever you decide is cool with me.

 

[Jason Boggs]

Why is it the B&G is the thread hidden from the public? Why isn't it the forecast threads? Sure, 98% of us on here are amateur forecasters but 9 times out of 10 we manage a decent target area through the forecast threads and just anyone can view them and drive right to where we discuss to go. Shouldn't this be a "feature" for members of ST, especially now that they are paying members?
This is an easy fix. How about a poll for hidden forecast threads too?

I have thought about this, and I agree 100% with what you said.

Also, after looking at my previous post, I want to openly apologize to Lanny for what I said. No, I certainly don't agree with everything he says, but he has the right to an opinion just like myself. As long as we try to better Stormtrack instead of bickering back and forth, we'll get a lot more accomplished. Sometimes, I tend to speak my mind, but I think we all go overboard at times and say things we should keep to ourselves. There is a time and a place for everything.

I realize now that his starting of the thread was to possibly have ideas to better Stormtrack. We all know that this forum isn't perfect (which one is), but we need to attempt to get along and try to work out our differences. I know from firsthand experience that being a Moderator can be stressful and thankless, but they are very much required to keep this board where it needs to go, but they can't do it without our help.

Everyone, were in this together, so lets make the best of it. Life is too short for this kind of crap.

Again I apologize to Lanny and anyone else that I may have offended.
Don't get the idea that I'm tucking my tail between my legs and giving in. I'm just trying to settle some differences here.

Thanks for hearing me out.

 

[Jay McCoy]

I think removing the B&G section completely off the website for the off season might be something interesting to try and could help reduce a lot of the tension experienced lately while keeping discussions solely focused on weather.

Problem is during the "off season" there isnt any weather except blizzards to talk about hence the off season so the B&G is the busiest section and is what keeps ST members occupied during those lond cold months. Come April/May/June everybody will be concentrating on the forecast and reports threads and the B&G will slow down. If we remove B&G for the winter the site will drop to only a few posts per day at best.

Instead of removing the B&G section it would help if people just grew up a little and thought a little before they posted. I know thats asking alot and some just cant do it which is why we have time outs for those folks...lol

 

[MatthewCarman]

You've said this about ten thousand times in the past week. I really have nothing against you Matthew, but could you please stop saying it and just do it?

Jason Bolt was implying I started the flame war. That is how I took his post. I felt the need to remind him I never started that mess. I have nothing more to say so if people would just drop it we can move on already.

 

[Shane Adams]

Newbies & Education...Is it possible to re-open the old "Educational Forum"? There were a ton of great questions and answers while it was featured as a regular forum area. This would be beneficial not only for the obvious reason, but it could also help to offset repeat posts that naturally happen as new members come aboard and seek information. Perhaps this fourm could be re-instated and stickied to the top of the main forum page. This way, newbs could easily find it and navigate around, plus be able to learn in basic anonymity, at their own pace (many newbs/lurkers often say they feel too intimidated to post or ask questions; with this system they can simply read and soak up the info without having to ask). This also eliminates the problem of "where does this post belong, 'Beginner' or 'Advanced'?

There's been an archive of more or less meaningless posts from 2005 and before just sitting around taking up space...maybe losing those and adding the Educational Forum could be a 1-2 punch of increasing quality while saving server space.

Lurkers...I still maintain that all accounts with zero posts should be eliminated right off the bat. If these people are truly lurkers and want to learn but not participate, they have no reason to hold a member account. Allow everything except TA to be publicly-accessible, and they can read and learn as much as they please...and if/when the time comes they feel they want to begin posting, they can register for membership. This would also free up a bit of space.

B&G...I think the question here is, "Do we want ST to be active year-round, or are we more concerned with quality and topic?" I think ST can live with or without the B&G. Leaving it would no doubt help keep things active during the off-season, but you simply cannot avoid conflict when you invite debate by throwing over a thousand people into a room and say "go for it." I feel the B&G needs to be unbridaled (with the exception of personal attacks by name), or done away with. Trying to regulate adults in a "bar situation" (whether this forum is privately-owned or not) will cause more tension than the B&G topics themselves (has anyone not been following ST the past week or so?) You can't have it both ways, at least if you want to avoid a repeat of this past week. If someone doesn't like a topic, they can ignore it and move on.

Moderator action regarding reported posts...Here's an idea: A person reports a post that they find offensive. The moderator sees the report, then sends the person a PM back. They tell the person to PM the offender themselves, and attempt to clear things up privately. Since the ST admins can read PMs but don't interefere with them, this allows problems to be worked out amongst the parties involved, without moderation imput. The mods can still observe the process, but are free to deal with other elements of their day-to-day duties. If the situation escalates, it's in PM. No harm no foul.

Bans...a topic near and dear to my heart I propose a three-strike rule. First ban, one day. Second ban, one week. Third ban - forever.

 

[MatthewCarman]

Problem is during the "off season" there isnt any weather except blizzards to talk about hence the off season so the B&G is the busiest section and is what keeps ST members occupied during those lond cold months. Come April/May/June everybody will be concentrating on the forecast and reports threads and the B&G will slow down. If we remove B&G for the winter the site will drop to only a few posts per day at best.

We need the chase case games to come back or even weather trivia etc. That would give people something to talk about.

 

[Scott Weberpal]

Problem is during the "off season" there isnt any weather except blizzards to talk about hence the off season so the B&G is the busiest section and is what keeps ST members occupied during those lond cold months.

If the B&G section on ST keeps people occupied during the winter, they lead truly sad lives.

I can think of a million and one things I'd rather do during the winter than constantly post in the B&G to keep myself busy.

 

[Steve Miller]

We need the chase case games to come back or even weather trivia etc. That would give people something to talk about.

Well bring it on then, Carman. Don't dictate, there's enough of that in here. Go and do it and we'll all participate.

Does anyone else have input on the idea of changing the Target section to a hidden from public status? What is the opinion of the mods and admin regarding this?
Let's add value to this forum via more privacy for our target discussions and perhaps we'll find more of the chasers who have drifted away being pulled back in since they will not be sharing their forecast thoughts with the entire www but rather just their peers.
I like the idea of keeping Now and Report threads available to the public to maintain draw to ST and exposure for those who want it.
Thoughts?