What Have You Learned from Your Chase Busts?

Eight years of lessons learned taken from my chase logs, starting with the latest chase and ending with my first. Not all of these are from busts, some are repeats that I've failed to learn, some conflict with each other, some are just funny, and some will be out of context without the chase log they came from:

1. Tape the GPS to the dash so it doesn't come flying off during a turn.
2. Make sure you have working data before the chase.
3. Watch where you park, and don't blindly maneuver on the side of the road
4. Know when your storm is going elevated and when to retarget to more promising/unhindered targets to the south.
5. The hills have eyes
6. Don't second guess your target.
7. Be careful of the bugs when stopping for the night in rural parts of the plains.
8. Don't second guess your target, especially when you are reconsidering it for Iowa.
9. Marginal chase days can be rewarding even without tornadoes
10. Don't fall behind a storm and expect to catch it on slow Iowan highways.
11. Don't gamble with gravel roads and mapping software with a tornado behind you.
12. Don't eat bison meat hot dogs from Badland's gas stations.
13. Be careful where you step when chasing out west.
14. Make sure your overnight location is close enough to get to the next day's target.
15. Be prepared for when someone gets sick on a chase trip.
16. Go for the intercept.
17. Tours with large caravans are too unwieldy on high risk days with fast storm motions.
18. Weak lapse rates due to lack of good solar heating can ruin a chase.
19. Make sure the roads are at least gravel when stopping for the night.
20. Rain shafts can be very deceiving.
21. Wind instruments are more trouble than they are worth.
22. Don't get trapped by the RFD core on a north south highway.
23. Don't split a hotel room with Adam, Danny, and Mike. (they snore)
24. Don't waste time in Shamrock, TX
25. Clean the mud out from your undercarriage after a chase
26. Test the software more thoroughly before the first chase.
27. Kill time on a cap bust with a chaser convergence.
28. Southwest Wisconsin is less than ideal for chasing.
29. Don't mess around in the core of an HP supercell.
30. Take the time to navigate and verify your route while under a storm.
31. In the heat of the moment do a "stupid check" and look around to make sure you aren't missing anything.
32. Move on a tornado intercept, don't bet that its going to stick around for a more ideal viewing position.
33. There are major data holes in the Texas panhandle.
34. The locals are loco in the Texas panhandle.
35. Its difficult chasing storms across the Missouri River into northwest Missouri.
36. Chasing Iowa results in a bust.
37. Good company eases the trauma of busting.
38. Move on initiation. You can always drop back to your original target.
39. The visibility on the high plains allows visual intercepts from incredible distances.
40. The road network in central IL allows for the successful chasing of fast moving, HP supercells
41. Don't leave the window down while your piglet is in the car.
42. Its ok to pass police while in a tornado warning.
43. Don't abandon cold front storms in favor future storms that may never occur.
44. Continue to scan the rest of the storm base even if there is a dominant feature as there may be new developments.
45. High shear/low instability setups may not justify a plains run.
46. Cloud cover and frontal precip can ruin a marginal setup.
47. Pick an intercept point for fast moving storms well ahead of the storm's path.
48. The best forecasting and positioning does not always yield the best storms.
49. Extreme shear and instability make for a light speed, linear bust if there is no directional shear.
50. Don't distract Chad with Rich Thompson's index when he's driving.
51. Don't let wall clouds pass overhead!
52. Don't forget food on the roof of your chase vehicle.
53. Carefully consider all targets, and don't get suckered into SPC's area of highest tornado probabilities.
54. Instruct the others in your caravan the hard lessons you have learned while chasing, especially the ones about driving in mud.
55. Get out earlier and stay closer to the updraft bases for better views of the big tubes.
56. Veering 850 mb winds ruin the moisture for supercell development
57. Cold fronts spit out mostly junk.
58. Don't discount less anticipated areas of the tornado outlook.
59. Busts with scenic pictures are still enjoyable.
60. Photographing a beautiful sunset sky is more rewarding than racing after nocturnal tornadic storms 100 miles away.
61. Take a moment to assess storm speeds. The minute you lose on the chase can save you 300 miles of frustration.
62. Iowan drivers lack courtesy, and they don't take well to aggressive driving.
63. Don't step out of the car to shoot storm features when its hailing and pouring rain.
64. Even if the cap erodes enough for cells to fire on the dryline, a stout cap east of the dryline can keep storms from moving off the boundary and organizing.
65. With a line of developing supercells, its best to drop down the line rather than trying to follow one storm, and playing catch up with it.
66. Do not trust the models, even the RUC analysis, and carefully study the current conditions, as the original target area may still be primed for the best show.
67. Watch other target areas as the day progresses instead of focusing on the initial target
68. Try not to get stuck on the interstate, behind a squall line, with city traffic.
69. March or May, chase when you can for the magic can come anytime.
70. Invest in a dash mounted video camera.
71. Southeast Minnesota has chaseable terrain
72. Southwest surface winds and flow aloft can ruin a chase
73. Don't be suckered into taking off work to chase a squall line.
74. Pay attention to what your chase partner is doing.
75. The dirt roads of the great plains are not to be trusted.
76. Monroe, WI is a great chase stop.
77. Don't wait several months before writing your chase logs.
78. Don't wait for the perfect setup.
79. Two person caravans do not make good chase configurations.
80. The van is a decent place to spend the night
81. Fix the A/C before driving 600 miles in the blazing sun
82. Don't chase along the Mississippi.
83. Ferries are not chase vehicles.
84. Marathon chases can be quite enjoyable as long as you have a trustworthy chase partner.
85. Kansas has great weather and great scenery.
86. When you see a tornado, take a deep breath, and make sure you are actually recording it.
87. Abandon a nocturnal chase the moment you lose situational awareness.
88. The discrete storm ahead of the line is not always the best storm.
89. Watch your proximity to storm lowerings.
90. Some tornadoes are impossible to catch
91. A strengthening storm system poses a dangerous tornado threat long after dark.
92. Watch out for suspicious farmers when pulling off the road to spot storms.
93. Make sure you and your chase partner are compatible, with same agendas.
94. Tripod all cameras before the intercept.
95. If possible, take the time to route around towns during an intercept.
96. Stay in the car when the CG is close!
97. The data connection needs to be established earlier to be on top of storm initiation.
98. Leave the night before if chasing west of Des Moines.
99. Don't eat spicy buffalo wings from Dairy Queen at 11 in the morning.
100. If the clouds don't clear about by early afternoon any chance for instability or supercells is minimal.
101. Having a knowledgeable chase partner makes a world of difference.
102. If you fall many miles behind a storm moving faster than 50 mph, you need to let it go.
103. Late seasons chases with marginal conditions usually result in a bust.
104. Don't ignore a potential target closer to home (like Bloomington).
105. Don't get excited about the 160 hour GFS.
106. Forecast the cap the morning before the chase.
107. Don't exceed ten over the speed limit.
108. When the cap is weak you must leave early.
109. Derechos make for dramatic severe weather, but difficult for tornado interception.
110. Don't get your hopes over "public reported" tornado warnings.
111. A pretty rainbow is enough to justify a local chase.
112. Mobile radar data is a must for next season, I've had one too many "just narrowly missed the tornado" chases this year.
113. Target an area of convection over an area of no convection.
114. Secure your cargo pods better, and don't use them if you don't have to.
115. Near Vandalia and further south the chase territory gets ugly.
116. Buy a gazetteer for states you know you'll be chasing in.
117. Don't drive to a remote corner of the state without data when the show is forecasted to be close to home.
118. Rain-X wears off after two chases. You have to reapply it!
119. Pay attention to flash flood warnings! Take a detour to better roads.
120. Bring more memory for the digital camera and a tripod for the camcorder!
121. Watch the weather closely, even if there isn't a forecasted risk.
122. I learned my limits on how far I can go in a day, which is good experience to have before I make a trip down to the Great Plains this May.
123. The cap can make or break a chase.
124. Central Illinois has nice flat terrain and a good road network.
125. Storm chasing can be worthwhile even when the prospects are low.
126. A route through a major city is never a good a chase option. Wait for a later exit.
127. A beautiful sky can be just as good as the thrilling action of a severe storm.
128. Meteorological knowledge is invaluable when planning a chase. Factors that probably shot this chase down were lack of lifting mechanisms and winds aloft. I will need work on my forecasting skills for next Spring.
129. I don't have to drive all the way to Decatur just for McDonald's.
130. Drive slow on wet roads. Hydroplaning is not fun.
131. I know well that when they issue a warning its too late to jump in the car and try and catch anything. The same can be said about a watch if you aren't in it. We arrived in Roscoe with not more then a few minutes to spare before the storm struck. Arriving an hour earlier would have made things less hectic and perhaps we would have bagged the nader that dropped before we got there.
132. Chasing at night without proper information and orientation is very dangerous and foolish. It will probably be some time before I attempt a night chase, and hopefully I will be more prepared.
133. Good data and knowledge of locations are critical, especially in the dark. We drove not knowing exactly where the core was or the meso. A laptop with internet and mapping software would be a good bet as well as a mobile radio rig.
 
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85. Kansas has great weather and great scenery.

The two things I have learned:

1. Pay more attention to the cap. I've gone out on too many cap busts.

2. Kansas chasing is generally easier and more rewarding than Oklahoma chasing (and I have done a lot of both). Kansas' superior roads make all the difference.
 
2. Kansas chasing is generally easier and more rewarding than Oklahoma chasing (and I have done a lot of both). Kansas' superior roads make all the difference.

Oklahoma is overrated. They've got the storms, but half the state is pretty lousy chasing. There are spots even west of 35 that are ugly, like along the Canadian. Big data holes too. The OK panhandle is a dream come true, but its one county tall. The eastern AR floodplain is just as flat and probably as big as the OK PH (although the state is generally considered a bad place to chase).
 
Lot of good tips (and some weird ones) in your post Skip. Can you elaborate on this one though? Obviously elevated is bad, but I couldn't tell you if a storm was going elevated based on environment or GR if my life depended on it.

Skip Talbot said:
4. Know when your storm is going elevated and when to retarget to more promising/unhindered targets to the south.
 
That lesson was from June 10, 2010. I have heard that one over and over again: "stick with your target and don't abandon your storm". This was one of those days that went the other way though. I really liked northern CO and southern NE and got on the first storm that initiated up there. It put down a decent looking wall cloud but then became elevated, probably as low level instability was cut off from anvil blow off from storms 100 miles to the south obscuring the sun. I thought there would be enough separation between storms, but apparently there was not and the southern cell produced the tornadoes of the day near Last Chance, CO. I should have abandoned that storm a lot sooner and maybe I would have had a shot at those tornadoes instead of coming in a half hour too late.

Here's a couple pics for comparison:
10061004.jpg


Nice looking rain free base, wall cloud is bulking up.

10061007.jpg


Base starting to retreat. Wall cloud looking more ragged...

10061008.jpg


Wall cloud falling apart. The base is becoming undulated and smooth, an indication that its ingesting stable air.

10061011.jpg


Its obvious at this point that the storm is sucking in stable air and being shaped by cold outflow, which results in the laminar, striated structure and the bits of scud floating under the base. I probably should have left the storm after the second photo, but couldn't give it up as it was still tornado warned and just really fascinating to watch.
 
50. Don't distract Chad with Rich Thompson's index when he's driving.

52. Don't forget food on the roof of your chase vehicle.

54. Instruct the others in your caravan the hard lessons you have learned while chasing, especially the ones about driving in mud.

Hahaha. In my defense... well, my bad(s).
 
I definitely second skips Number 12. I got sick from those gas station bison hotdogs in 2003.
 
Good day all,

THREE lessons from 2010.

1). Stick with your original target! I wandered into Liberal Kansas on April 22, missing all the tornadoes in Texas. Original target was Wheeler and SW of there. Lesson well learned!

2). If it's MAY - Chase. If it's May and a marginal setup in SE Colorado - Anyway you can - Chase! Missed the stuff on May 31 (Campo) simply because a 2% SPC outlook / marginal setup did not seem "worth" continuing on past Woodward, OK (3 hours before the event).

3). Avoid entering Indian Reservations, especially in South Dakota, where people brake for no reason in front of you causing you to lock-up and all the GPS, laptops, and equipment going flying. Also, there is NO data whatsoever in these areas. Lesson learned on May 24, 2010.

Maybe I should add the "cautions" to be taken on food poisoning. Chips and other junk food aside, I got sick off a batch of carrots (from WalMart SuperCenter) and blew my cookies all over a roadside curb in Denver on May 26 after seeing a cool supercell earlier. Not a bust, but a bust in my "gut"!
 
Skip, I definitely remember June 10th. We met you, I believe in southeast Wyoming right before initiation. We made the same mistake of staying on that junk storm for too long. I too really liked northern Colorado and southwest Nebraska that day.
 
34. The locals are loco in the Texas panhandle.

I resent this remark pal!!!:D
 
34. The locals are loco in the Texas panhandle.

I resent this remark pal!!!:D

Ha, I knew someone would catch that. June 13 '09 near Turkey, TX when we ran into some trailer trash irate that we were stopped on the side of the road. The teens had spurs on their boots at the Pizza Hut in Clarendon, and Cotton Hill checked us into our hotel room that night too. It was great.
 
Ha, I knew someone would catch that. June 13 '09 near Turkey, TX when we ran into some trailer trash irate that we were stopped on the side of the road. The teens had spurs on their boots at the Pizza Hut in Clarendon, and Cotton Hill checked us into our hotel room that night too. It was great.

Haha we ran into all sorts of interesting characters that day...

Getting back on topic...I like to think I wont make the same mistakes again after a bust, but Im sure I will.

One of the biggest IMO is to learn when to leave a storm and get on newer ones that have developed. I have improved in this significantly over the years, but its still a mistake that happens...May 19th being this years example.

The other one is to always be aware of initiation time. May 24th our starting location was perfect to get those nice tornadoes, but we simply did not act on the early initiation time. If I wasn't still high from May 22nd I probably would have kamikazeed myself on the way home.
 
One of the biggest IMO is to learn when to leave a storm and get on newer ones that have developed. I have improved in this significantly over the years, but its still a mistake that happens.

I agree this is a huge one and the only way to learn is the hard way. I spent too much time on the cell north of the beast that produced the Parkersburg EF5. I blasted south but didn't make it until the tornado had weakened somewhat and turned into a dusty mess.
 
I (partially) recant what I've said about busting in Iowa after bothering to add up some stats. I'm 7 (tornado days) for 18 in Iowa through 2009, but was 0 for 9 in 2010. Apparently 1) I have a short term memory and 2) you can't make a rule about busts and Iowa (though you can make a rule that the tors will be buried in messy HP's).
 
Most of my chases are a bust. It is because I simply don't leave the southern IL area to chase that much though every now and then I will travel away like I was in TN when Yazoo City got hit the first time. I have also went further up north in IL to chase. Many chasers get all bent out of shape when a chase is a bust, I differ, I simply enjoy getting out and following severe weather even if there is no tornadic event, the lightning-wind-hail and storm structure alone will win me over!
 
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