What Have You Learned from Your Chase Busts?

[Jason Foster]

Well, even if you chase the Mid-Atlantic....West Virginia is still a NO ZONE. But i wonder if I could actually chase in the Ozarks with this hill, treed terrain I have to deal with on the local front.

My overall lesson learned is KISS. Simplicity does seem to success.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

For what it's worth, I don't consider a lack of severe convection a bust. In that case, I find it to be more the case of a failure on our part to accurately predict how the atmosphere would actually behave. For me, a "bust" is my own inability to be on the right storm at the right time, hence I return home with a bruised ego as a result of my own pernicious decisions.

To me the definition of bust is kinda "relative": for instance, if you chase one setup and on the triple point you see a supercell wiht a brief tornado-gustnado while other chasers on the dry line see a monster photogenic wedge going at 15 mph, I consider this worst than a bust
Obviously, if you're chasing a setup where many chasers see a "normal" supercell structure and you don't see anything cause of strong cap, ok, that's a bust but I'm pretty conscious I've not lost something incredible.
So, to me you can have a terrible bust even if you're seeing good convection: it depends on what you're losing and if you're losing something.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

After a difficult season this year I realized something. Never let the fear of failure affect your decision making. Also, indecisiveness is worse than a bad forecast.

I think back to June 11th this year in Colorado. We missed the Last Chance storm the day before. I really liked the dryline play in NW Kansas for the 11th, but knew it had high bust potential. With that said, I didn't even consider it that morning on the basis I was afraid of missing storms altogether if we went for the dryline play under a stout cap. With that said, it was obvious the storm of the day would be there if it developed.

I stayed in Colorado with most everyone else. We chased tornado-warned cells near Limon, none of which produced more than a brief spinnup. The dryline popped in Kansas and a monster supercell developed with multiple tornado reports with it. To this day I have yet to see any photos or video from that storm. Should have gone to Kansas.

Indecisiveness cost me tornadoes on May 10th, May 19th and June 10th and 11th.

 

[James Hammett]

I had an awfully large number of busts this year because I did a lot of chasing in IA and NE and both, for the most part, had an awful year. That said, there are a few things I focus on to minimize busts and they're always a work in progress:

1) Commit to chasing early on and be ready to head out earlier than expected if necessary
2) Learn how to forecast the cap
3) Learn how to forecast linear convection
4) And finally, new for 2011, chase in MN more often

There are many good threads discussing these points already so I won't repeat them here.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

Last year, for instance, after chasing for 12 years, the significance of the 700mb map finally came home to me. I'm the kind who needs to have concepts connected to practical experiences, and while I may be a slow learner, two busts out in Iowa drilled into my brain that once 700mb temps exceed the 12 degree mark during peak season, you'd either better move to where the cap is breakable or else love watching turkey towers rise and die. My second Iowa bust last year was in southwest IA/northwest MO. While lots of chasers were scoring farther north up toward MN, my buddy Bill and I went for monster 6,000 CAPE moving up from northeast KS. It was my fault. We both knew it was a risk and were a hair away from heading north, but CINH seemed like it could erode, and I reasoned that if the cap did break, then we'd have Armageddon on our hands. It didn't help that the SPC issued an MD for our area. But the cap held. We got a crapload of towering Cu's and one patch of elevated convection, but that was it. Meanwhile, tornado reports were filtering in from 150 miles north of us.

That advise, while it may work most of the time, wouldn't have held true for me on June 3, 2001 in south-central Kansas. I sat under a monster cap all afternoon along an outflow boundary near Medicine Lodge, KS. 700 temps were 12C-14C across Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Fortunately, we had a weak mid-level trough swinging through which would be our only hope to break the monster inversion. Here are the MD's issued for that event:

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1015 FOR FAR NRN OK..FAR SRN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

MONITORING LATEST INSTABILITY ANALYSES NEAR THE OK-KS BORDER FOR
SIGNS CONVECTION MAY BE IMMINENT. ACTIVITY WOULD DEVELOP AND
BECOME SEVERE VERY QUICKLY ONCE CAP IS BROKEN...MEANING A TORNADO
WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

LATEST INSTABILITY ANALYSES INDICATE EXTREME INSTABILITY HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW EVIDENT
WITHIN MESONET DATA FROM JUST NORTH OF TUL TO NEAR PNC TO JUST
NORTH OF END AND GAG. SURFACE-BASED CAPES HAVE INCREASED TO OVER
6000 J/KG OVER N-CENTRAL OK...WHERE LOWER 90F TEMPERATURES ARE
COLLOCATED WITH LOW-MID 70F DEW POINTS. 18Z SOUNDINGS FROM DDC AND
OKC INDICATED SUBSTANTIAL CAP...WITH INVERSION MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
OF 23C-25C IN THE 5-6 KFT LAYER. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
THE ETA AND ETAKF FOR 18Z BOTH HANDLED THIS INVERSION LAYER VERY
WELL. IN ADDITION...ETAKF STILL SUGGESTS CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
NEAR THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN 21-23Z...INVOF REGION OF CURRENT
WEAKENING OF CAP ON CURRENT ANALYSIS IN N-CENTRAL OK.
MASS CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BOUNDARY WITH SLY WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KT
ACROSS WARM SECTOR...COMBINED WITH FURTHER WARMING AND MOISTENING
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER...MAY OVERCOME STRONG
CAP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...LMN
PROFILER SUGGESTS DEEP LAYER WILL REMAIN MORE THAN FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KT.


..EVANS.. 06/03/01


SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1019 FOR NRN OK AND SRN KS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 358...

LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY AT 22Z WAS MOVING SLOWLY NWD AND WAS LOCATED E-W
CLOSE TO THE OK/KS BORDER...APPROXIMATELY FROM ABOUT 50 N GAG TO
20 S BVO. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S
JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S...MLCAPES ARE NEAR 4500 J/KG. DESPITE THE STRONG
INSTABILITY...THE AIR MASS REMAINS STRONGLY CAPPED. HOWEVER...
LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THE CU HAVE BEEN SWELLING ABOUT 50NW
END...CLOSE TO WHERE THE 21Z RUC DEVELOPS CONVECTION BY 00Z. IF
STORMS CAN DEVELOP...THE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME RAPIDLY SEVERE
GIVEN THE EXTREME INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYERED SHEAR AROUND 40 KT.

..IMY.. 06/03/01


SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1022 FOR NRN OK AND SRN KS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 358...

NO THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN WW AS OF YET...AND WW MAY BE
CANCELLED SHORTLY.

THOUGH SOME POSSIBILITY STILL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER...EVENING SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE AIR MASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY REMAIN STRONGLY
CAP. THE LOW LEVEL JET AT 35 KT CONTINUES TO IMPINGE UPON THE
BOUNDARY...AND A BRIEF WEAK THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AN HOUR AGO. HOWEVER THE STORM WAS NOT ABLE TO DEVELOP AN ORGANIZED
STRONG UPDRAFT. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES...CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT MAY NOT BE
SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THUS...THE
TORNADO WATCH MAY BE CANCELLED SHORTLY.


Needless to say, we had lost all hope for initiation, so we started to head back to Tulsa. As we were dropping south on I-35 back into Oklahoma, a storm finally developed and was giving the cap all it could to survive. We stopped to watch it for a few minutes then decided to give it a chance. Once it finally overcame the inversion it exploded and quickly developed into a sculpted supercell with an incredible bell-shaped meso. We approached the cell just as twilight was setting in. The non-stop lightning was something similar to what I had seen just two months earlier in Hoisington, KS on April 21st.

We managed to get inside the "bear's cage" on the southern flank of the meso as a tornado descended in an open field near Murdock, KS. It was nearly 10pm at this point, however the intense lightning made the tornado quite visible. While we would have rather had a daytime tornado, this was still a nice consolation prize. The storm didn't last more than a couple of hours before it ran too far into the stable air north of the OFB, thus promptly ending its life. Unfortunately at the time I didn't have a video camera which had quality low-light capabilities, so this tornado was nothing more than a first-hand experience for me and the three other chasers riding along that day.

The point of my story is there are no absolutes when it comes to our rules for weather forecasting and chasing. While 95% of the time, a strong cap (12C+ 700 temps) may not be overcome, the 5% in which that rule is broken are the days you hope to be there. If there is one thing I learned from that chase is that persistence pays off.

Also, didn't Vortex II opt out of chasing on May 22 in South Dakota because of their concerns for the cap not breaking?

 

[Ben Holcomb]

Biggest lesson I have learned is to not overthink things and stick with my targets. This has burned me multiple times.

The second lesson is Iowa. Don't chase there. I'm 0 for 5, and can only consider ONE of those days even remotely 'successful' (4/6/10).

 

[Patrick Martin]

I've learned 2 key things. 1. You have to go to see anything, and 2. that if there is upslope flow into the Raton Mesa in late May/early June, that upper 40dp's will more than get the job done, and I need to be there!

May 31st of this year taught me that after literlally spending an entire morning agonizing over model run after model run, pouring over surface and upper air data, and waffling over going or not, and ultimately blowing off the "see text" and my target of Springfield, CO.

 

[Marcus Diaz]

The 1 thing I have learned is stick with your gut. If you feel confident the morning of about a target, just go for it. I've had 3 times this year (March 8, May 10, and May 31) where I was really burned because I had a change of target midway through the day. March 8, my morning target was Sayre, OK, but instead I was suckered into the OK panhandle. May 10, day before and morning of target was Perry, OK, instead I tried catching the early show in KS (and busted hard). May 31, Springfield, CO the morning of, but decided to stay local cause I thought the storm wasn't going to last long. So for 2011, if I feel pretty confident on my target, I'm not going to let the early shows and midday MDs lure me away.

 

[Robert Rohloff]

My busts seem to have a recurring theme

1. Get going early
2. Have some patience, catch up is difficult and you will be out of position on the next storm.....

 

[John Gnuechtel]

The main thing I've learned after six seasons is that while I can keep myself safe when I do manage to reach a supercell base, my forecasting and analysis skills to pick a target have a very long way to go. It's plain as day for me to see what the main dynamic players are near initiation time, but I'm just terrible at pinpointing it several hours in advance. This has landed me just outside the reach of the big show a number of times. Watching a huge exploding updraft from 90 miles away is cool and all, but it does get kind of old. *cough* Bowdle *cough*

Won't stop me from trying again next season though.

 

[Verne Carlson]

The biggest thing I've learned chasing out of Denver is that even though Kansas looks good for tornadoes later in the day, always give a second look at eastern Colorado upslope.

May 22, 2008 Windsor, CO - drove away from 60 Tds and turkey towers at 8:00am and missed the biggest wedge tornado close to home.

April 22, 2010 Las Animas, CO - disregarded the surface low in CO and missed the tornadoes that sons Michael and Eric caught. Got pulled north and abandonded texas target and missed those too!

June 15, 2009 Elizabeth, CO - left late from work heading to the obvious target in Kansas and caught 4 tornadoes only one other chaser was on.

Now I always look twice close to home before heading too far east!

 

[Rob H]

I'm 0 for 2 in Iowa, but I'm not to the point where I'll make it a rule yet. I've got a gut feeling there's an amazing day near Sioux City this year, so we'll see how that works out

I do what Skip does and write up chase logs, and I'm pretty hard on myself. Luck plays a part in any chase, but you can't change your luck. I try to focus on things I can change:

1. Know the synoptic situation inside and out, and how it affects your target. Even when the models do well, these features can be 100 miles away from where you thought they would be. When you don't know why you're chasing your target or how the day is playing out, then you're effectively limited to following other chasers or watching reflectivity for a decent storm and hoping it's in the right environment.

2. Don't let technology beat you. If your GPS breaks, don't mess around trying to fix it or buy another one - otherwise you miss Wadena and Albert Lea on 6/17. If you have other people in the car that aren't busy, have them try to fix it while you rely on your eyes and instincts. And if you can't rely on your eyes or instincts - shame on you, that's also something you need to work on. Technology should never be a necessity or even a crutch, it should be a helpful addition.

3. Pick a target and commit to it. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush, so don't sit in the middle of two plays and hope you can get one or the other. People thought 4/22 was going to be a great day in TX, and if it wasn't for that OFB, it could have been a junk day. We started the morning just South of where the tornadic storms in KS were, and ignored all the signs of an awesome upslope play because we didn't want to miss out on 'the big show' down in TX, but we ended up sitting in the middle and seeing a weak tornado from miles out, and a few wall clouds. On 6/17, our technology problems were part of the issue, but I was arguing for Alexandria (south of Wadena), and my partner was arguing for the MN/IA border. We were both right, as each target had multiple tornadoes and an EF-4, but we ended up kind of in the middle because we didn't commit fully to either.

4. Go early. I can't count the number of times we left later than we wanted to, and ended up stressed out and rushing to get into position. If you think initiation is going to be no earlier than 3pm, plan on being there at 1pm, or maybe even noon. You can relax, really analyze the pre-initiation environment, and hang out with other chasers.

edit: #4 can help out with #1, #2, and #3 - so I'm inclined to say my #4 is the most important thing I've learned. Chasing is always a race against time and ongoing events.

 

[Wes Carter]

It seems the general consensus here is to:
1. Go Early.
2. Pick a target and stick with it.

That seemed to be 90% of my problem this year. As a rather new chaser, I find myself second guessing myself (for good reason) but the truth of the matter is that if you try to change your target too late in the game you are almost guaranteeing that you will miss both possibilities. So you've reduced a maybe to a probably not.

Another thing that I have learned is to take a harder look at the visible satellite images and loop them. Often OFB's are not obvious in the still images, but when you run a loop they sometimes smack you might in the forehead.

 

[Jeremy Den Hartog]

One of the many things I've learned is don't let a forecast model try to convince you that a cap is going to weaken or break. Instead, be more realistic about it - if the 700mb temps are through the roof, why would the cap weaken or break? What would cause it? Why are other forecast models not showing the cap breaking?...etc

To many times have I wanted the cap to weaken or break so badly that I dug through models looking for any glimmer of hope. If I found it, typically I was all in. Its kind of a 'high risk high reward' scenario - which is really what storm chasing is to a big extent I guess. However, it would save me some money and a LONG car ride home if I wasn't so quick to pull the trigger .

Bottom line, just because you 'wish' it would break doesn't mean it 'will' break. Not even my 'cap break dancing' worked for me last year (spinning on my head on a peace of cardboard with my 'beatbox' weather radio off to the side)... - ok this last part I was kidding about but hmmm maybe it would work???

 

[Andy Jackson]

My main regrets this year were 6/17 and 5/24 because I was very close to both, I plan to remedy this with a more refined approach to selecting a target and like others have said to stick with it. I'm still learning the behaviors of certain synoptic situations and hopefully I will be able to forecast better in the future.