What Have You Learned from Your Chase Busts?

[Bob Hartig]

I know that's kind of a weird question, but I doubt I'm the only one here who has learned some valuable lessons from busted chases. Last year, for instance, after chasing for 12 years, the significance of the 700mb map finally came home to me. I'm the kind who needs to have concepts connected to practical experiences, and while I may be a slow learner, two busts out in Iowa drilled into my brain that once 700mb temps exceed the 12 degree mark during peak season, you'd either better move to where the cap is breakable or else love watching turkey towers rise and die. My second Iowa bust last year was in southwest IA/northwest MO. While lots of chasers were scoring farther north up toward MN, my buddy Bill and I went for monster 6,000 CAPE moving up from northeast KS. It was my fault. We both knew it was a risk and were a hair away from heading north, but CINH seemed like it could erode, and I reasoned that if the cap did break, then we'd have Armageddon on our hands. It didn't help that the SPC issued an MD for our area. But the cap held. We got a crapload of towering Cu's and one patch of elevated convection, but that was it. Meanwhile, tornado reports were filtering in from 150 miles north of us.

Between that and our previous Iowa bust, I finally got to be good buddies with the 700mb map. Not to say that I might not still take a similar risk when that kind of CAPE is involved, but I'll be using every tool I can lay hands on to get a better handle on mid-level temperatures.

All that to say, a bust may not be fun, but it's not a bad thing if you learn from it.

 

[cstrunk]

It's better to head out early than to head out late. In most cases.

 

[Skip Talbot]

...two busts out in Iowa... My second Iowa bust last year...Between that and our previous Iowa bust...

Bob I think you are looking a little too much into 700 mb temps and overlooking the obvious. I write up a chase log for each of my chases and at the bottom I always try to end with a couple of "lessons learned" in the hopes that I will learn from the mistakes and that they will be engrained in my brain by writing them down. One lesson that I've yet to learn after dozens of schoolings is to abandon the chase when the target shifts into Iowa. I believe I'm 0 and 26 for Iowa chases. Its a silly curse that's plagued many chasers (with the exception of Mike H), but I refuse to give into superstitions, so I'll be out there busting time and time again.

 

[Danny Neal]

FWIW I am 0-11 in Iowa chases.

 

[Donovan Gruner]

Iowa has screwed me over and over... including baiting me into missing the real show in central IL... Lesson learned... Iowa is a jerk.

 

[Tony Laubach]

Here are two lessons I have learned over time...

1. Stop chasing Iowa... no need to explain that one.

2. Stop chasing March.. Since I started keeping records in 2002, I have chased a total of 20 times in March with 17,817 miles of road time in there. Out of those 20 chases, it was my very first March chase in 2004 that yielded my ONLY March tornado day (Oklahoma). Since then, I am 0-19. Oddly enough, I am 2 for 3 in February. LOL

 

[Bob Hartig]

Oh, man, I should've seen it coming--another Hate On Iowa thread!

I've actually scored pretty nicely in Iowa on a couple of occasions. Until Bowdle of this year, the flat-out nastiest tornado I've ever seen was the massive, dirty wedge that followed the May 25, 2008, Parkersburg EF-5, which sideswiped Hazleton. And a couple years prior on April 13, 2006, I witnessed a string of tornadoes starting in Van Horne and ending with a night-time tornado that hit Iowa City. So I'll stand up for poor old Iowa. For that matter, on the second bust that I've described down there in the southwest part of the state, folks were bagging tubes in the northern part of the state and in Minnesota. If we'd played up around Spencer, somewhere around that neck of the woods, we'd probably have done okay.

But I'm not going to try to persuade those of you whose hearts have gotten broken by Iowa. Have you tried sacrificing a chicken? That might help.

 

[Donovan Gruner]

I've only seen a landspout in Iowa. Nearly every time I chase there, everything is ruined by morning cloud cover. 1/2-16 in Iowa for me.

Although I have seen some neat structure in Iowa.

 

[James Gustina]

Well, I can't speak for Iowa, but I've learned that my success-bust ratio gets better if I hop across the state line into Indiana before the storms congeal into an ugly mess. Oh, and that a Moderate or High risk chase around here is like playing Russian roulette.

 

[Dann Cianca]

I have learned that it is WAY better to bust when you're with a bunch of friends! Instead of a bust, it becomes a road trip. Busting alone sucks.

Also... paying more attention to the mixed layer instability/inhibition parameter helped this year on decision making for sure. I've been burned before when only looking at surfaced based CAPE.

 

[Melissa Jablonski]

Well, I can't speak for Iowa, but I've learned that my success-bust ratio gets better if I hop across the state line into Indiana before the storms congeal into an ugly mess. Oh, and that a Moderate or High risk chase around here is like playing Russian roulette.

With all but one chamber loaded.

 

[Donovan Gruner]

I have learned that it is WAY better to bust when you're with a bunch of friends! Instead of a bust, it becomes a road trip. Busting alone sucks.

Also... paying more attention to the mixed layer instability/inhibition parameter helped this year on decision making for sure. I've been burned before when only looking at surfaced based CAPE.

MUCAPE is a good one as well. I just used to pay attention to surface based CAPE as well, and have definitely gotten burned because of it.

 

[Jeff Duda]

It's better to head out early than to head out late. In most cases.

+1 on that one. length

 

[Andrea Griffa]

You can bet on it, man! I've learnt from my busts, even too much!

I will never forget what does it mean arriving in late in Harper on whatever may 12 you can imagine p)...It's an experience I dont' want to do again. Especially when you meet Gene Moore after the outbreak at the Motel 6 and he makes you see 11 fresh tornadoes. The answer is: check out the models for the day 2 always and always and always

 

[Jesse Risley]

I always ask myself, "why did you bust?" and "what did you miss that caused the bust?" If nothing else, it's better to live and learn than to live and continue wallowing in my own shortcomings. If there was something I missed, like the presence of a very subtle pre-frontal trough to my east (for example), then I want to be sure to understand how that factor contributed to my shortcoming, and also how to better prevent a repeat of that factor causing a bust in the near future.

Quite a few chasing busts are related to strong capping, but if you're never willing to take a risk on some of those days where some other factor could potentially overcome the capping, then you will eventually be disappointed when the powder keg explodes at a time when everyone was least expecting the explosion.

For what it's worth, I don't consider a lack of severe convection a bust. In that case, I find it to be more the case of a failure on our part to accurately predict how the atmosphere would actually behave. For me, a "bust" is my own inability to be on the right storm at the right time, hence I return home with a bruised ego as a result of my own pernicious decisions.