Very warm air aloft in the Northern Plains

[Justin Turcotte]

I've seen H85 temps near +18C in eastern Nebraska once in January but never in North Dakota. The BIS sounding has H85 temps around +15C. Winds at 925mb crank up to 50-60 mph later today in eastern ND and MN. The only thing keeping the area from shattering record highs is some snow cover and southerly winds which is a poor mixing direction this time of year. Should be fun looking at some visible loops today and watching the fringes of the snow pack erode. No real strong push of cold air in site and not much snow in southern Canada... Perhaps an early spring will shape up for the north. Hopefully the current parade of weak shortwaves up here will also happen in June.,

 

[Scott Olson]

This has certainly has been the warmest winter i've experienced in South Dakota. For weeks we've been averaging at least 12-16 degrees above climo with some days upwards of 22 and the forecast continues this trend. The amont of soil moisture remains at 40-90% above average for E SD/E ND and most of MN.

 

[bill mudd]

and TWC said that the BUTTERCUP has already made a showing in places like Montana - 3 MONTHS early! whats going on?

 

[Joel Wright]

Thunderstorms are forecasted here over the coming weekend. If that happens it will be the second round of thunderstorms in less than a month. We very rarely see thunderstorms from Dec-Feb. This is just crazy.

The whole country seems out of whack.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

We know what this means...widespread blizzards and stable Arctic air across the Plains and Midwest in April and May. :lol:

 

[Jason McKittrick]

Here in Omaha we are on track to break the record for the warmest January ever. The high today, 65, just 3 degrees shy of the record of 68. The NWS mentioned in their discussion this afternoon that we will likely set record high minimums both tonight and tomorrow night as temps only drop to around 40, almost 10 degrees warmer than our average high. Every day now, we continue to add to our record streak of consecutive winter days with highs above 32, I believe we are now at 38. The previous record for consecutive days above 32 happened to be set in 1987, which also happens to be the last time we experienced an honest to goodness blizzard, 19" with 65 mph gusts.

No flowers here yet but we also have thunderstorms in our zones for this weekend, a rare event indeed.

 

[Tim Gonyo]

Perennials are coming up in my flowerbed in Southern Wisconsin. Frost is surface based or completely absent... We have currently been 32 degrees or above EVERY DAY this January... Last time we saw a subfreezing high was a couple days before Christmas. Tomorrow's forecasted high is near 50F, which is +22F. We're +12.8F for the month of January, on our way to the warmest January -- EVER.

February looks to continue this trend. Anyone with serious model experience, will we have any sort of winter this year, or is it dead? With the EPO, NAO and AO forecasted to go negative really soon, shouldn't arctic air be blasting us?? What is UP with this Pacific Jet from hell???

It won't die.

 

[Joel Wright]

I guess this is a prime example of how the weather can be unbelievably cruel; and yet can be unbelievably wimpy conversely.

Weather patterns remind me of a firefighter's hose loose on the ground, spraying everywhere. It's that random and chaotic. Sometimes you get doused all to hell. Other times you're high and dry......

 

[Robert Dewey]

My prediction is... The rest of the winter may remain on the warm side with a big snowstorm here or there (followed immediately by moderating temps). With such an extended period of positive NAO, I can't help but think it will tank around early spring (especially if this pattern persists). Of course, that would spell doom for the severe weather season with spring arctic outbreaks scouring the Gulf of Mexico.

I guess for all of those who wished for a warmer winter - you got it. But now you have to pay with a potentially cold and wet spring.

As was said in another thread - normal is the mean of two extremes. Well, we've been on the warm "extreme" since this past fall, so when is that big and extended cold snap "extreme" going to arrive to even things out?

Welcome to 2006 - Where weather is non-existant.

 

[nickgrillo]

Originally posted by rdewey
My prediction is... The rest of the winter may remain on the warm side with a big snowstorm here or there (followed immediately by moderating temps). With such an extended period of positive NAO, I can't help but think it will tank around early spring (especially if this pattern persists). Of course, that would spell doom for the severe weather season with spring arctic outbreaks scouring the Gulf of Mexico.

I guess for all of those who wished for a warmer winter - you got it. But now you have to pay with a potentially cold and wet spring.

As was said in another thread - normal is the mean of two extremes. Well, we've been on the warm "extreme" since this past fall, so when is that big and extended cold snap "extreme" going to arrive to even things out?

Welcome to 2006 - Where weather is non-existant.

:shock: Oh crap... Will we be seeing this? OMG...

<img src=http://midwestchase.com/2006/acoldspring2006.jpg>

 

[Chris Foltz]

Originally posted by Tim Gonyo
... on our way to the warmest January -- EVER.

A better way of saying would be to say it's the warmest January on record. Not to nitpick but we've only kept meteorological records for about the past 100, perhaps 120 years or so and I would tend to question those records kept in the early 20th century given the instrumentation of the day back then. IMHO, it's impossible to make the statement that this is the warmest this or that, coldest this or that, first time for this or that, etc..... Not picking you specifically Tim so please don't misunderstand. I've noticed other posts implying essentially the same thing and just felt the need to comment.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by nickgrillo+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(nickgrillo)</div>

<!--QuoteBegin-rdewey

My prediction is... The rest of the winter may remain on the warm side with a big snowstorm here or there (followed immediately by moderating temps). With such an extended period of positive NAO, I can't help but think it will tank around early spring (especially if this pattern persists). Of course, that would spell doom for the severe weather season with spring arctic outbreaks scouring the Gulf of Mexico.

I guess for all of those who wished for a warmer winter - you got it. But now you have to pay with a potentially cold and wet spring.

As was said in another thread - normal is the mean of two extremes. Well, we've been on the warm "extreme" since this past fall, so when is that big and extended cold snap "extreme" going to arrive to even things out?

Welcome to 2006 - Where weather is non-existant.

:shock: Oh crap... Will we be seeing this? OMG...

<img src=http://midwestchase.com/2006/acoldspring2006.jpg>[/b]

Ha... Hope not.

 

[Marko Korosec]

Originally posted by rdewey
But now you have to pay with a potentially cold and wet spring.

This is such a motivation for me, since I am planning to chase in States this year
Hope you're 105% wrong...even I actually agree with your words..