Twenty-Seven Making a Comeback?

Jul 18, 2004
Westport, CT
Well the convection associated with the remnants of TD27 is looking much more organized this morning than it ever did when it was actually a depression. Although there is still strong shear over the region, the 06z GFDL actually strengthens this to a TS that scoots northward along the eastern Yucatan coast and then NEwd into southern FL as a Category 1 hurricane. There's a recon flight en route to the system right now, so we'll soon (~18z) see whether or not we have a tropical cyclone on our hands. If so, there is little doubt that it will go right to TS Gamma, as recon yesterday found tropical storm force winds without a closed LLC. The 12z SHIPS doesn't want do much with the system -- peaking it at 35kt before dissipating it in 72hrs.

The NHC has a special tropical disturbance statement out on this system, which is indicating that advisories may be re-initiated later today. SSTs are not going to be a limiting factor with former TD27 as they are running around 28-29C over the area. The 06z GFS is hinting that this system could play a significant role in the nor'easter/blizzard potential for New England next week -- if this establishes itself as a warm-core system it will be interesting to see what happens.
Well assuming 27 will make some sort of comeback there seems to be a good consensus on taking it on a similar path to Wilma. Including a rapid acceleration in forward speed. So if strengthning can occur over the loop current despite the shear it probably won't have time to weaken much as it hits Florida.