TS Kiko (E Pac)

[Josh Morgerman]

I have about as much time as you Josh minus 1 day ...

Yeah, your distance will make this one a tough chase subject for you. Even being as close as I am, in Southern CA, I'm having trouble getting a handle on this one.

Re: the cyclone... I'm getting conflicting signals from the satellite imagery this afternoon. It shows up nicely on the visible-- the swirl is well-defined and now I can easily spot the circulation center-- however, the infrared shows warming cloud tops. It'll probably flare-up again tonight, with the diurnal max.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Wow, Rich, that's some story. A lot of lessons learned in that. Although I'm sure it was very frustrating, it sounds like there were a lot of memorable moments-- including the photographed one.

It's interesting-- your description of the Baja sounds like the deserts of Southern CA.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

This really grabbed my attention in the 8 pm PDT Discussion:

THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...I EMPHASIZE...HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. RELIABLE MODELS LIKE THE GFS AND THE ECMWF DEVELOP A STRONG RIDGE NORTH OF KIKO AND EVENTUALLY FORCE THE CYCLONE TO TURN WESTWARD BEFORE REACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE EQUALLY RELIABLE UK AND GFDL/HWRF GROUP SHOWS A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TOWARDS BAJA CALIFORNIA OR EVEN TO THE AREA OF CABO CORRIENTES AND THE SEA OF CORTES. AT THIS TIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST...TURNING KIKO WESTWARD JUST TO THE SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND AWAY FROM MEXICO. HOWEVER...WE MUST BE READY TO MAKE A BIG CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IF THE NORTHWARD TREND SUGGESTED BY THE UK/GFDL/HWRF RUNS BEGINS TO MATERIALIZE. THIS OPTION COULD RESULT IN A STRONGER CYCLONE SINCE THE OCEAN IS VERY WARM NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. SO STAY TUNED.​

 

[Josh Morgerman]

The 2 am PDT advisory indicates some intensification-- now 996 mb/50 kt-- and I notice the TS-wind radius has contracted to 70 mi. The latest infrared shows convection is consolidating nicely. It's a modest system, but methinks it will reach Cat 1 today.

The NHC is still calling for it to hook left S of the Baja-- although it's a low-confidence forecast. The GFDL insists on a more N motion.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

A sure shot close to home?

Forecast for Greater Lake Tahoe Area

Updated: 9:26 am PDT on October 20, 2007
Lake Wind Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening...
Rest of Today
Brisk. Mostly cloudy with isolated snow showers late in the morning. Highs 40 to 50. West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Ridge gusts up to 95 mph decreasing to 65 mph in the afternoon.

Yup, we're supposed to get our first big Santa Ana even of the year. The winds usually don't get quite that strong right in L.A. However, in the fifteen years I've lived here (minus time in Europe), I've seen a couple of Santa Ana events that caused damage to trees and bent street lamps in the city. You just never know with these things.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

In other E Pac news... A nice, new disturbance has popped up in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and the NHC indicates in their 1605Z TWD that a depression might form in the general area.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

The 18Z models-- even the GFDL-- are now pretty unanimous in fishing Kiko. <sigh>

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Almost a 'cane now-- 991 mb/60 kt. Methinks it'll be wasted talent!

 

[Josh Morgerman]

I've been looking closely at the infrared and water vapor loops this evening, and the motion seems to be N or even E of due N.

Most of the models are showing an almost immediate left (WNW) turn-- except the outlier GFDL, which has consistently insisted on N motion to mainland MX or the Baja. Given this, I find tonight's apparent N (or E of N) motion interesting-- it could be significant.

The 2 am advisory is due out very soon-- it'll be interesting to see what they say Re: the motion.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

The cyclone seems to be moving N-- however, it's being sheared and is on a weakening trend. This won't be chase material. Next!

 

[cdcollura]

Good day,

The cyclone seems to be moving N-- however, it's being sheared and is on a weakening trend. This won't be chase material. Next!

Sitting now in Cabo San Lucas and diappointment is extreme...

Wow, 40 MPH - Impressive, moving W too - What happened?

It died because it's too close to "Atlantic Basin in 2007" ;-)

This is the W hemisphere, not Asian Pacific waters...

Told Ya so, Told Ya so

 

[cdcollura]

Good day - Just kidding.

I was not obcessed enough to go there. I am still in Miami, FL.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Good day - Just kidding.

I was not obcessed enough to go there. I am still in Miami, FL.

I read that first post and I thought, "He's lost it."

I would have chased this with the slightest excuse-- but there was no excuse. Pure crap.