Tropical / Subtropical / Hybrid Storm Off the Southeast US Coast

[HAltschule]

Holy cow. I just glanced at the new 00z/06 NAM model and saw an enormous and very powerful tropical system or extratropical/hybrid low forecast to move from just East of North Carolina, southwestward to off the coast of Savannah, Georgia this coming week. The models suggest that this thing will have major gale or storm force winds, at least, if it verifies....in addition to major rains for the Southeast U.S. coast.

Unbelievable to see a storm like this on the models this early in the season. And if it is an extratropical system, the strength and track forecast are equally unbelievable as well.

It might be one of those seasons after all!!

PS: This afternoon's GFS also has a similar low tracking off the coast of the SE US this week...so the models appear to be on to something.

EDIT: My bet is that thing is a monster extratropical or hybrid low due to the fact that we have a large cutoff low circulation at 500mb. Not your classic or favorable pattern for a tropical system.

EDIT 2: (From HPC)
THIS SYSTEM MAY TAKE ON HYBRID TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOPS. WITH LOSS OF STEERING/WEAKENING AND WARMING MID LEVELS EXPECT LOW MAY JUST DRIFT ALONG WARMER CLOSER INSHORE
GULFSTREAM OFF THE GA/SC COAST. SEE LOCAL OFFICE AND OPC WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MONITOR POTENTIAL TPC DISCUSSIONS LATER THIS WEEK.

 

[HAltschule]

Hybrid Subtropical / Tropical system organizing as planned. Hurricane force wind warning issued for the ocean waters east of Hatteras, etc. Check out these advisories....15 foot waves forecast for Palm Beach County beaches and up to 36 feet on the ocean waters. Nice!!

ANZ086-070230-
HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR OUT TO 34N 71W TO 32N 73W
400 PM EDT SUN MAY 6 2007

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING...

...N WALL OF GULF STREAM NEAR 33.3N 76.7W...33.7N 76.6W...35N
75.3W...

.TONIGHT...N TO NW WINDS 30 TO 40 KT INCREASING TO N TO NE 40 TO
55 KT...EXCEPT 55 TO 70 KT NEAR AND E OF THE GULF STREAM. SEAS
10 TO 16 FT BUILDING TO 18 TO 24 FT...EXCEPT 24 TO 30 FT IN THE
GULF STREAM...AND 10 TO 18 FT FAR SW PORTION. SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED TSTMS. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM IN RAIN AND
BLOWING SPRAY.
.MON...E TO NE WINDS DIMINISHING TO 35 TO 45 KT...EXCEPT 45 TO
60 KT NEAR THE GULF STREAM. SEAS 20 TO 30 FT...EXCEPT 28 TO 36
FT IN THE GULF STREAM...AND 14 TO 20 FT FAR SW PORTION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM IN
RAIN AND BLOWING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...E TO NE WINDS DIMINISHING TO 25 TO 35 KT...EXCEPT
30 TO 40 KT W PORTION. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 14 TO 22 FT...EXCEPT TO
22 TO 28 FT NEAR THE GULF STREAM. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.TUE...E TO NE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT...HIGHEST SW. SEAS SUBSIDING TO
10 TO 16 FT...EXCEPT TO 20 FT NEAR THE GULF STREAM.
.TUE NIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT...EXCEPT DIMINISHING TO
15 TO 25 KT NE PORTION. SEAS 10 TO 19 FT...HIGHEST SW.
.WED...WINDS DIMINISHING TO SE 15 TO 20 KT THROUGHOUT. SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 8 TO 12 FT.
.THU...E TO SE WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING
TO 5 TO 7 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FT.
$$