Tropical Storm Gabrielle

[B Ozanne]

Accuweather is starting to hype this storm up.

NWS in Upton, NY is thinking its going to stay extratropical. But I agree with the earlier assesment that just about everything can turn tropical this time of year.

Its been 22 years since Gloria, I've patiently paid my dues.

 

[HAltschule]

Accuweather is start to hype this storm up.

NWS in Upton, NY is thinking its going to stay extratropical. But I agree with the earlier assesment that just about everything can turn tropical this time of year.

Its been 22 years since Gloria, I've patiently paid my dues.

WOW...22 Years already? I remember Gloria as a early teenager. I was fascinated even though I was 20 miles inland.

If this current system becomes a named storm...it would be a "G" name. Oooohhhh. Spooky how coincidental. Muwah Ha ha. Seriously though...it is looking quite extratropical at this time. But they have been known to easily acquire tropical characterstics...which I believe will happpen here too. Storm is already producing Gale Force winds and the Hurricane Hunters found peak flight level winds of 38mph. So, it's slowly getting there...now we just need to lose the shear, lose the dry air on the west side and get some convection going over the center!!!

 

[Mike Davis]

Seems to still be a storm in waiting

Reading posts and advisories for days now brings up an interesting question needing comment:

'The system could become tropical in a day or two' ... or words to that effect for the past week. What is the Member's opinion as to what it will take to make the high pressure and dry air on the west side of the storm to finally weaken?

It seems a pretty safe bet that this storm could quickly intensify, but it just seems to maintain a "delay in developmental evolution", at this time.

Who wants in the pool as to when it will finally evolve and under what triggering factors?

9-5-07 23:45hrs EDT

 

[Mike Davis]

Water Vapor Imagery

Water Vapor Imagery..

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh3.html

Seems be say a lot?

 

[cdcollura]

Spot on - Mike ... The WV loops looks more like a trough than anything else.

Shear is NOT good for tropical systems ... This is why the "storm MAY become a cyclone" text has been popular for a week now!

When, and if, the shear relaxes, then get excited. Until then, the storm (if you wanna call it that) can be very very far from the USA.

Also, if it moves NE (along with the stronger SW flow aloft), then a "fish storm" is a good bet.

 

[B Ozanne]

The next day or two is finally here. NHC issued a special tropical disturbance statement this morning.

Edit: As a note of confidence just 40 minutes before this statement the NHC noted that tropical development was not likely for several more days.

 

[HAltschule]

Bill: Agreed on the renewed excitement. Though I can't blame the NHC for their forecast because the models have done a terrible job forecasting the upper low and resultant shear to relax and exit the area.

It looks like the latest satellite trends supports strengthening and organization. In fact, a recent 14z vis. loop shows strong convection starting to fire up rapidly in the center of the storm. This is what was lacking for the past several days. Also noticeably different is the lack of N to NE'ly shear that was ripping the system apart. It seems that the shear has relaxed tremendously. Both of these things favor strengthening and I think a TD or maybe even a TS will be named by tonight. (Why possible TS status? Well...gale forece winds to 40mph have been occurring for several days to the east of the center. If these winds can wrap around closer to the center, then it would be a T.S. There is a very disctinct possibility that it already may have T.S. force winds with it).

Chris: I am not so sure about the "fish storm" track you are expecting. Just about all of the models continue to forecast a west to west-northwestward movement of the system. With a lack of shear and upper low dissipating currently, the system would fall on the southwest side of the bermuda high and will be forced to moved toward land. The 00z and 06z models also support this. I would expect landfall between Charleston, SC and Hatteras, NC over the next couple of days. I think once the storm makes landfall, it will get picked up by a trof and recurve and then go out to sea...but not before bringing high end T.S. or low end CAT 1 Hurricane conditions to coastal SC and NC.

The next thing to watch is the strength of the system. It is currently over the very warm gulf stream waters. Water temps. now are about 1 degree C above normal and the waters have been untapped by any other significant storms this summer. So, rapid strengthening "could" occur higher than what the models are forecasting.

Just my $0.02 on the current scenario.

 

[Mike Davis]

Significant overnight change..

Since I live in Jax, FL, I have been watching this thing constantly. My previous post of Water Vapor showed nothing organized that would cause one to continue looking. But overnight, Thurs/Friday, I certainly did not see the transformation, but it happened.

I knew the East side still had some Gale Force winds, but, when the West side subsided, it was get it on time! I have to wonder what was missed? NHC, darkness of light? Obviously, models were days off and late, but kept the "maybe" in there. This one is intriguing because so many other storms we get out in that area look good, have cold cores, no LLC, then they are history..

This one should make the Algorhythms sing for awhile!

 

[cdcollura]

Good day,

The dreaded shear is relaxing, high building westward ... FL already has 15 knot easterly trade wind flow.

We already have a LLC based on Visible Satellite with convection trying to wrap in a loose ring around it.

TD to form at anytime ;-)

 

[HAltschule]

"It ain't over till the fat lady stinks."

"stinks" or "sings"??

 

[cdcollura]

Good day,

Convection now blowing up on the W side of the system, and new convection forming on south side, while continuing on the E side. Almost closing around LLC that is forming.

Shear is relaxing - alot. In fact, if you loop the visible a slight anticyclonic curve can be noted north of the system. A developing upper high?

Plane in there ATTM, let's see if a TD has indeed formed by 5 PM EDT. System is also moving slowly to the West (I do not see any N component as of yet). North Florida to SC might be in this things "sights".

 

[B Ozanne]

I will guess a tropical storm, on first advisory.

I agree, it will be a TS today (maybe not by 5pm, but today). Of course, if I'm wrong I can just erase this thread and act like nothing ever happened. If I'm correct there will be much gloating on my end.

 

[HAltschule]

My vote is for a Serious Tropical Depression (S.T.D. - Alright sorry for the bad humor...a "T.D.") to be "named" and not a T.S. by the end of the day. Doesn't seem to be well organized enough to be a TS yet. Winds on buoys have decreased a bit. But with the NHC...who knows what they will do.

Prelim. reports are that there is no closed circulation found during the first few passthroughs. We'll see what the rest of the mission finds...

I think North Florida will be OK from this...but I would target the area from Charleston, SC to Hatteras, NC still.

 

[HAltschule]

Does anyone have a link to the recon, vortex, etc.. decoders?

 

[Bob Schafer]

Does anyone have a link to the recon, vortex, etc.. decoders?

Yeah, Howie, here:

http://www.ofcm.gov/nhop/07/pdf/r-app-g.pdf