Tropical Storm Don

[Randall Marable]

This is tropical wave worth watching over the next few days. I think the overall track of this system will ultimately determine whether or not if becomes a serious threat within the next 2 to 4 days. Even still, after this, it may become a factor if reaches the Gulf of Mexico as the ECMWF has been hinting at off & on for the last few runs. Nonetheless, the most important thing is that the NHC is interested in our system...


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2011

1. A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.

 

[Ari Brown]

The NHC TWO this morning kicked 90L's chance of development down to 20% (within the next 48 hours) because of lack of a surface circulation and upper level winds becoming more unfavorable. There seems to be a general consensus between the dynamic and statistical models on the track of this system, westward through the Caribbean and towards the Gulf of Mexico. The longer it takes to develop, if it develops, will determine whether it ends up heading more towards the GOM or towards the Yucatan and the rest of Mexico. We should have a better analysis of this wave by tomorrow, as a Hurricane Hunter flight is planned into it; though, if 90L's structure doesn't improve today, I won't be surprised if that flight is postponed.

 

[Ari Brown]

Well, as of not too long ago, AL902011 was deactivated on the NCEP's Best Track/ATCF system, meaning that for right now it's officially 'dead'. We'll have to wait and see if it has a better chance at development as it moves westward. Tomorrow's scheduled Hurricane Hunter mission has undoubtedly been canceled. The Atlantic is quiet otherwise.

 

[cdcollura]

When there is A LOT of activity in the Pacific, the Atlantic is usually "dead" for the most part.

I think this year the bulk of the activity will start in late August.

 

[Patrick Marsh]

2004 was a nasty year for hurricanes, and Hurricane Charley didn't develop until 9 August. The season has a long way to go.

 

[Ari Brown]

Definitely. And considering the factors this year (Atlantic high blocking recurvature, neutral ENSO, etc.) this year looks like it has potential to end up like 2004 on steroids. Each and every wave out in the Atlantic is gonna have to be watched closely because unless we're lucky enough to get a strong trough come through as it approaches land or the Atlantic ridge breaks down, there's not going to be much recurvature this year.

 

[Ari Brown]

Interestingly enough, 90L is back. It was reactivated yesterday on the Best Track server and the NHC now has a 20% chance of development for it. Based on the current high pressure ridges and model guidance, it appears that 90L is probably headed generally towards the Texas/Mexico border. The question now is how strong can it get before it runs into land.

AL, 90, 2011072612, , BEST, 0, 200N, 830W, 25, 1010, DB

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED THIS
MORNING BETWEEN WESTERN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

 

[Justin Bailey]

90L is begining to look much better this evening. showing signs of some pretty good outflow in the northern half too. gonna be interesting to see what tomorrow brings.

 

[Matthew A Smith]

90L needs to kick the H's ass that has been planted over TX for 2 months. It does look much better tonight, but it is moving at a pretty good clip. I don't feel good about it having enough time to do much before it says 'yo' to the Rio Grande.

 

[Ari Brown]

Well, models have finally picked up 90L again (they were killing it earlier) and now they're mostly aiming at either Texas or Louisiana. All indications are right now that if 90L develops, it will be a small storm, so it won't do as much for the drought situation in Texas as a massive storm like Hurricane Ike (2008) or Hurricane Alex (2010). Hurricane Hunters are planning to fly into the wave tomorrow afternoon, and 90L is looking healthy tonight so the mission will probably be flown.

 

[Randall Marable]

Well, models have finally picked up 90L again (they were killing it earlier) and now they're mostly aiming at either Texas or Louisiana. All indications are right now that if 90L develops, it will be a small storm, so it won't do as much for the drought situation in Texas as a massive storm like Hurricane Ike (2008) or Hurricane Alex (2010). Hurricane Hunters are planning to fly into the wave tomorrow afternoon, and 90L is looking healthy tonight so the mission will probably be flown.

Personally, I would prefer if it doesn't develop. I was hoping it would remain a disorganized tropical wave as it moves towards the Western Gulf. Meanwhile, the NHC is liking it's chances of development a lot more as of now...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF
CUBA HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT A CIRCULATION COULD BE FORMING
ABOUT 125 MILES EAST OF CANCUN MEXICO. IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE...
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

 

[Ari Brown]

Personally, I would prefer if it doesn't develop. I was hoping it would remain a disorganized tropical wave as it moves towards the Western Gulf. Meanwhile, the NHC is liking it's chances of development a lot more as of now...

Yeah, usually strong tropical waves and weaker tropical depressions and storms are the best for rainfall purposes. At this point, it looks like 90L is on the precipice of becoming a situation for Texas. The NHC now has an 80% chance of development and advisories could start today. Hurricane Hunters are planning on staying busy over the next 36 hours at least, as they have five flights scheduled into 90L. Right now I'd say that Texas and Louisiana need to pay close attention to this system.

 

[Randall Marable]

Though I was hoping it was wrong, I'm kinda leaning toward the ECMWF's solutions of that last few days. I noticed some of the other models this morning are shifting back toward its solution after trending further north and northwest.


EDIT:Nevermind, please disregard these thoughts. The early consensus appears to be honing in and around the middle Texas coast. Personally, I think it may better to wait for all of the sampling to be completed and ingested into the appropriate computer model runs. I should have thought about this before I posted that.

 

[Randall Marable]

Yeah, usually strong tropical waves and weaker tropical depressions and storms are the best for rainfall purposes. At this point, it looks like 90L is on the precipice of becoming a situation for Texas. The NHC now has an 80% chance of development and advisories could start today. Hurricane Hunters are planning on staying busy over the next 36 hours at least, as they have five flights scheduled into 90L. Right now I'd say that Texas and Louisiana need to pay close attention to this system.

Yea plus we need the rain here in Southeast Texas as well. A hurricane here only causes us headaches and troubles. A hurricane down the coast in South Texas or Northern Mexico only wraps up all of the good rains and moisture to the south of us.

 

[Mike Moore]

P-3, C130 and G5 all heading out on missions... let's see what the models do with all of this new data.