Tropical Depression Ten (10)

[HAltschule]

Various models develop a decent looking Tropical Storm or Hurricane in about 6-8 days. Because so many models pick up the system, it seems to me that it's likely to occur as of now. The area to watch seems to be in the NW Caribbean where it will form...and then the various model tracks diverge. Some place a tropical cyclone anywhere from Key Largo, FL to New Orleans. The GFS, which has been VERY accurate this season, places a well organized system offshore of Tampa with a landfall south of Gainesville, FL...but along the Gulf Coast.

Thoughts/Comments/Discuss....

 

[Justin E. Reed]

Bring it on bitches! LOL. Lets get this thing to ride up the peninsula to JAX, I'm ready to see some action!

 

[Stuart Robinson]

I agree on the model confidence - but not quite where it will form from – perhaps even South of Jamaica even? – I note the RECON flight plans for tomorrow ….
3. SUSPECT AREA SOUTH OF JAMAICA
FLIGHT ONE
A. 17/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01IIA
C. 17/1600Z
D. 16.0N 76.0W
E. 17/1900Z TO 18/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

 

[HAltschule]

I'd be really surprised if they sent the H.H. out to Jamaica for a recon mission tomorrow. Right now, there is absolutely nothing indicative of organized rotation or cyclone development. It may take another couple of days to get going...if it does at all.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

I agree Howard , But I guess that it is more simpler to cancel a flight than to arrange one quickly - I will be surprised if the flight ever leaves the ground.

 

[cdcollura]

Good day,

As long as it does not hit on Sep 25 to 27 ... I will be away in CT on business (training seminar).

I am worried about these two days (25-27) after being left well out of any hurricane chases this year thanks to shear and the good ones being in 3rd (or even 4th) world countries...

 

[rdale]

It's tough enough for forecast tropical stuff a few days in advance - if you're asking for a tropical outlook 10 days out I think it's a lost cause... Sorry.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

No surprise - the RECON flight WAS cancelled

3. REMARKS: ALL TASKING FOR SUSPECT AREA NEAR JAMAICA
CANCELED AT 17/1130Z.

 

[cdcollura]

We have shear / trough-iness all over the Caribbean.

Tropical aspects can (and will) look like garbage for a while...

Troughs have been KNOWN to set-up and just stay there - Almost as persistant (and annoying) as the central US RIDGE each year around May ;-(

These troughs effectively "vaccinate" the US and Caribbean from tropical systems by cuasing developing storms to recurve out to sea or weakening / dissapating storms to reach the US because of the wind shear.

 

[Brian Emfinger]

Visible Satellite shows a weak circulation east northeast of Miami. There isnt much convection with it attm. I bet a new circulation will develop out of the mass of convection to the north thats east of the Cape. We are probably still a day or two away from something really getting going though.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

It's now Invest 93L, and the Miami radar shows some clear turning. Initial model runs bring it W or WNW-ish, across the Gulf, to TX or LA. SHIPS brings it to 85 kt by Day 5-- perhaps a bit bullish.

This got interesting fast!

 

[Brian Emfinger]

I know I'm not the only one to be reminded of Katrina here right? At least as far as track/predicted track and current location.

 

[rdale]

A lot of storms pass through that area, there's nothing in the big picture that looks Katrina-ish.

 

[HAltschule]

It sure does seem as though this system has rigorous convection already and a decent circlulation (very possibly closed) associated with it. At the rate it is organizing it could be a Tropical Depression by 11pm tonight.

EDIT 1: While the GFDL brings the system toward New Orleans, the Canadian Model (which actually picked up on the development here 2 days ago), brings a well organized Tropical Storm along the FL coast with landfall over or just south of Jacksonville, FL in 2 days or so. This mornings 12z NAM brings a weaker system onshore near Cape Canaveral. The NOGAPS and UKMET both bring the system across FL and offshore into the Gulf near Punta Gorda.

One thing is certain with this system and that is the uncertainty amongst the model tracks.

EDIT 2: The circluation has fallen apart on radar and satellite. It may have been a convective flare up before that took the appearance of a circulation. I think I will retract my TD prognosis by 11pm and give it a couple of days.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

Wow - check out the Obs from Bouy SPFG1 (or is that a station?) Anyway it is sited on the West side of Grand Bahamas - we could actually have a TD already..


Wind Speed (WSPD): 38 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 42 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 1008.8 mb
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -4.1 mb ( Falling Rapidly )

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SPGF1

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Florida.shtml