Tornado"Super Outbreak" - Is it Possible Again?

[George Tincher]

Yes, it will eventually happen again. We don't yet have enough weather records to determine the odds of such an event however. We don't know if it's a once in 100 years thing, once in 500 years or once in a thousand years type of event.

I will say November 10, 2002 did come close to pushing the Apr 3-4 outbreak. Had the middle portion of the outbreak been as active as the NRN and SRN portions, I think there would have been a smiliar total tornado count. If you recall, on Nov 10, 2002, most of SRN IN, SRN OH and all of KY didn't get much (squall line vs isolated sups), whereas as they did in 1974. This was the main difference.

Another date from 2002 that could have been HUGE was April 28th. There were 35 tornadoes anyway, including the La Plata, MD F4. But there were so many supercells that day that didn't produce tornadoes. There were at least 3 waves of supercells that moved through my area, that to my knowledge, never produced a single tornado. Had the number of storms to produce tornadoes that day been higher, it could have been one Jim Dandy of an event.

-George

 

[beaudodson]

One thing unusual about the Super Outbreak was how many populated areas were hit by strong/violent tornadoes. This outbreak wasn't just in the open cornfields. Major population centers were hit (some more than once). Truly an incredible outbreak.

 

[Bill Tabor]

Re: Tornado"Super Outbreak" - Is it Possible Again

Does anyone think there will ever be another outbreak like the jumbo outbreak of April 3-4, 1974?

You betcha! I think there will be a bunch. In geological years we've only scratched the surface. I hope to chase a few of them.

On the other hand can you imagine chasing under a 135mph 500mb jet?!! Think of the storm speeds. With widespread storms and high density tornadoes it could be extremely difficult and dangerous to chase such a situation. Reminds me of a high risk I chased with Gene Moore in the TX/OK panhandle area about 5 years ago. All the storms were moving 60 to 70mph. I think there may have been a few over 80 or 90. We set up in front of them and there wasn't much to see - just a gray sky. In just minutes a raging "front" appeared with electrified anvils causing coronal discharges on our scanner. Gene got shocked. The storm rushed upon us and we noted a couple areas of rotation in the mess. We 180'd and I punched my Tahoe (just tuned) to maximum acceleration. Throttle retard at 100 and I needed everthing as the winds nearly blew us off the road trying to escape. Gene noted a spinning tornadic vortex right off our right side slightly behind us trying to eat us. We finally pulled away and took shelter behind a metal shed. 13 telephone poles were blow over or broken at our previous position. I'm just glad it didn't happen when I was driving so fast during my escape. Anyway you get the idea.

 

[George Tincher]

The thing is, if another similar event occurs, it will probably be in the same general area. It seems that the area of the nation most prone to these HUGE events are MO, IL, AR, TN, MS, AL, GA, KY, IN, OH, etc. Most of the really historically huge outbreaks have occurred in those areas or some part of those areas. Therefore I have no reason to think future ones will not behave similarly.

Much of that region is not particularly well suited to chasing, though some areas are obviously better than others.

The other thing is, as far as chasing, an outbreak such as April 3-4, 1974 would be the LAST type of setup you'd want to chase. Lines of supercells moving at 60 mph would be no joy. LOL. Also, a good number of those tornadoes happened after dark, especially those in SRN KY, TN, and AL. Factor that into the poor chase terrain and you can see where I'm going.....not a pretty picture.

I think the Super Outbreak (and those in the future like it, whenever they take place) will be more important historically than they will for actual chasing importance. Certainly, an event like that is big news and will be talked about for years. I've often regretted not being alive then just because I missed the experience of living through such a massive and unprecedented event (I didn't enter this world until 1977). But I doubt many chasers would have any interest at all in chasing such an event.

In contrast, the Apr 10, 1979 outbreak only produced 11 tornadoes (or thereabouts). But most were huge and some were almost like giant sculptures begging to be photographed. I'm not sure about the forward speed of those storms, but everything else was almost perfect. If the storm speed was reasonable, that outbreak would have been a chasers dream come true, whereas Apr 3, 1974 would have been a nightmare. Another date that comes to mind is Apr 26, 1991. That date won't go down into the recod books as being a Super Outbreak. But for chasing, it was awesome. Again, I'm not sure about the storm speeds. Being early April, they were probably a bit higher than perfect. But still, though the number of tornadoes was far less, they happened over some of the greatest chase terrain in the world. And they occurred from a smaller number of storms.

I think the best outbreak days for chasing are the smaller days where you only have 2-3 supercells, but highly cyclic ones. If this can take place in an area that's flat and with few trees, has good road networks and if the storms are moving at tolerable speeds, then you have the perfect outbreak for chasers. Of course in the day of the chaser convergence, that might spoil an otherwise perfect event. LOL. In that regard, spreading people out over a wide area would be the only beneficial thing about having a major outbreak.

The point in mentioning this is that we get those kinds of days far more often. And they are likely far more rewarding to the chaser than a 'super outbreak" in which chaos reigns supreme. At least I think most chasers would agree.

 

[Jeremy Lemanski]

The thing is, if another similar event occurs, it will probably be in the same general area. It seems that the area of the nation most prone to these HUGE events are MO, IL, AR, TN, MS, AL, GA, KY, IN, OH, etc. Most of the really historically huge outbreaks have occurred in those areas or some part of those areas. Therefore I have no reason to think future ones will not behave similarly.

Much of that region is not particularly well suited to chasing, though some areas are obviously better than others.

The other thing is, as far as chasing, an outbreak such as April 3-4, 1974 would be the LAST type of setup you'd want to chase. Lines of supercells moving at 60 mph would be no joy. LOL. Also, a good number of those tornadoes happened after dark, especially those in SRN KY, TN, and AL. Factor that into the poor chase terrain and you can see where I'm going.....not a pretty picture.

I think the Super Outbreak (and those in the future like it, whenever they take place) will be more important historically than they will for actual chasing importance. Certainly, an event like that is big news and will be talked about for years. I've often regretted not being alive then just because I missed the experience of living through such a massive and unprecedented event (I didn't enter this world until 1977). But I doubt many chasers would have any interest at all in chasing such an event.

In contrast, the Apr 10, 1979 outbreak only produced 11 tornadoes (or thereabouts). But most were huge and some were almost like giant sculptures begging to be photographed. I'm not sure about the forward speed of those storms, but everything else was almost perfect. If the storm speed was reasonable, that outbreak would have been a chasers dream come true, whereas Apr 3, 1974 would have been a nightmare. Another date that comes to mind is Apr 26, 1991. That date won't go down into the recod books as being a Super Outbreak. But for chasing, it was awesome. Again, I'm not sure about the storm speeds. Being early April, they were probably a bit higher than perfect. But still, though the number of tornadoes was far less, they happened over some of the greatest chase terrain in the world. And they occurred from a smaller number of storms.

I think the best outbreak days for chasing are the smaller days where you only have 2-3 supercells, but highly cyclic ones.

The point in mentioning this is that we get those kinds of days far more often. And they are likely far more rewarding to the chaser than a 'super outbreak" in which chaos reigns supreme. At least I think most chasers would agree.

Yes, chasing an outbreak such as the super outbreak would be dangerous and likely unrewarding. The tornadoes would be moving at 40-60mph, likely be rainwrapped, and embbeded in a massive squall line. Also, as you stated in your first paragraph, the states that seem to be prone to the largest outbreaks are not the best for chasing, with many more urban areas, hilly/mountainous areas, and tree covered areas. Combine all of those and you get a tornado outbreak that could be extremely dangerous to chase and also has the chance of being very deadly.

I still cringe at the thought of a super type outbreak occuring during the late spring/early summer months, may-june-july. It is unlikely, due to the dynamics often lacking, but if it were to occur, the amount of people outside at sporting events, golf courses, etc. would be so much higher then that of the spring/fall months that you could be looking at a very high death toll.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

I've sometimes wondered what the convective outlook/SPC discussion text for a super-outbreak type event would sound like. The closest resemblance I've seen is from May 30, 2004:

COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT/DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...AND FRONTAL CIRCULATION SPREADING EAST FROM THE PLAINS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND PROMOTE EXPLOSIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY AFTERNOON. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WITH VECTORS ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONTAL FORCING...WILL INITIALLY SUPPORT DISCRETE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS.

ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WEAK CAP...AND STRENGTH OF DEEP SHEAR ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...FAMILIES OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT.

THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TRACK E/NEWD ACROSS NRN AR/ERN MO AND WRN IL THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH LONG-TRACK STRONG TORNADOES...

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING EXTREMELY FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING TORNADOES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO SRN IL.

...LONG TRACK SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED AND ARE DISPLAYING STRONG TORNADIC SIGNATURES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AR

THREAT FOR TORNADOES IS EXTREMELY HIGH OVER SRN IND AND CENTRAL AND ERN KY...A FEW TORNADOES COULD BE PARTICULARLY STRONG.

Then, at least half of the CONUS east of the MS river (and some areas to its west) was under a PDS tornado watch.

This event was concentrated over many of the same areas as the Super Outbreak, although a bit further west.

Anybody know of any case studies as to why this event did not pan out quite like this-with a lot of tornadoes but very few of them strong/violent? It was a very dynamic and intense system for late May, with a 989 MB or lower surface low. This may be less dynamic than an early April system, but keep in mind instability would be considerably greater (in late May).

 

[Simon Brewer]

From all the case studies I've seen, none that compare to the Super Outbreak! I can take a few outbreaks that compare to each other in a different, smaller, but still significant catagory of outbreaks:

Outbreak Catagories:

Super Outbreak: April 3, 4 1974 (alone by itself)

Huge Outbreaks: Nov 2, 2002/ Nov 21-23, 1992/ May 4, 2003/May 10, 2003/ and others that have currently slipped my mind...

Large Outbreaks (usually most tornadoes are confined to a three-state area): May 3, 1999/April 19,1996/June 8, 1995/May 22,1981/May 22, 2004/ June 24, 2003/ May 29, 2004/ May 8, 2003/ April 26,1991/ May 31, 1985/ April 10, 1979/ etc...

Small Outbreaks (most of the tornadoes confined to an area the size of a state): May 5, 2002/May 7th, 2002/May 12, 2004/ etc...


These are just some catagories I made up to classify outbreaks a little better. I guess May 30, 2004 falls into the "Huge Outbreaks" catagory, but it is insignificant to the other "huge Outbreaks", because there were hardly any strong tornadoes in that outbreak, just a bunch of brief and weak tornadoes. I imagine the "Super Outbreak" of 1974 should have a higher number of tornadoes, because I bet many of the weak/brief tornadoes went uncounted. I would bet that the actual number of tornadoes pushed 160.

 

[Robert Edmonds]

I would bet that the actual number of tornadoes pushed 160.

I have wondered what the actual tornado counts are for certain years. I believe the numbers were low for back then. However, today I'm skeptical the numbers are higher than they should be. Perfect example of how there were tornadoes reportedly spotted where I was and there wasn't a thing. I do accept that due to the contrast and storm distance you can miss things, but when your chasing and you see one tornado yet 8-11 have been spotted from the same storm, that makes me skeptical.