Tornado Drought

[Joshua T. Clark]

To all,

I have just recently looked at the storm data information on the NWSFO website in Norman and was quite disturbed that there was only 15 reported tornadoes in the state this year. What could be the cause of this. Is the most active Atlantic tropical cyclone season in recorded history the cause of this. Is it the ADO (Atlantic Decadal Ossilation), the possible onset of a El Nino event, or is it just cyclical just like tropical cyclone season.

January, 26 2004
Here is what a tornado looks like in Hawaii
I live in the most benign weather area in the world. I can remember only three times this year that I saw lightning and heard thunder. We do not get very many significant thunderstorm events here.

 

[Andrew Khan]

What was the most active state this year, for tornadoes? Was it KS or TX? I do not know how the active Atlantic would relate to tornadoes lacking in the OK region, or how the ADO would.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Are you going by this? http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/tornadodata/ok...tornado2005.php That table hasn't been updated for a while, and there are a few more tornadoes that aren't on that list (namely, 6-5-05 I believe). Last I counted, there have been 19 (or 20) tornadoes in the OUN CWA this year.

I made the following charts earlier in the year, so the number count for 2005 should be adjusted. Regardless, it's painful to see that, since my first spring in the southern plains was 2002, two of my most inactive tornado years in Oklahoma have occurred. There just hasn't been much in the way of good tornado supercell action in the state like there has been in KS and NE the past several years.

^^ REMEMBER: those are from earlier this year...

 

[Tim Vasquez]

Good grief, and I thought 1988 was bad. I guess 2005 will become the new "legendary" drought year.

 

[Skip Talbot]

At least its comforting to know that, even in the worst of years, there will still be several good chases and beautiful tornadoes out somewhere in the plains to catch.

 

[mikegeukes]

Tornado Counted County Segments from NCDC Storm Events

01/01/2005 to 09/30/2005

Number of Tornadoes by State (Tornado Counted County Segments)
76 Alabama
01 Alaska
05 Arizona
17 Arkansas
29 Californai

31 Colorado
00 Connecticut
00 Delaware
00 District of Columbia
45 Florida
01 Hawaii

06 Idaho
16 Illinois
11 Indiana
33 Iowa
117 Kansas

06 Kentucky
16 Louisiana
00 Maine
00 Maryland
01 Massachusetts

05 Michigan
74 Minnesota
66 Mississippi
22 Missouri
11 Montana

40 Nebraska
01 Nevada
00 New Hampshire
00 New Jersey
06 New Mexico

04 New York
22 North Carolina
57 North Dakota
03 Ohio
26 Oklahoma

01 Oregon
11 Pennsylvania
00 Rhode Island
14 South Carolina
19 South Dakota

01 Tennessee
105 Texas
04 Utah
00 Vermont
24 Virginia

04 Washington
00 West Virginia
70 Wisconsin
07 Wyoming

What are county-segments in NCDC tornado data? A county-segment is that portion of a tornado's path within a single county. If a tornado stays in one county, then a "tornado" is the same as a "segment." But this also means that tornadoes are counted twice when they cross into another county, three times when they enter a third county, and so forth. The reason for county-segment tornado recordkeeping is that the National Weather Service verifies tornado warnings by county. So when you look at NCDC tornado databases or the NWS Natural Hazard Statistics (based on Storm Data), you are not counting tornadoes, but instead county-segments of tornado tracks. This causes inflation of the tornado totals often reported by media and others who do not notice this important distinction. Source: SPC

Mike
http://mgweather.com (My Resume)
http://www.mgeukes.blogspot.com (My blog)

 

[Andrew Khan]

Tornado Counted County Segments from NCDC Storm Events

01/01/2005 to 09/30/2005

Number of Tornadoes by State (Tornado Counted County Segments)
76 Alabama
01 Alaska
05 Arizona
17 Arkansas
29 Californai

31 Colorado
00 Connecticut
00 Delaware
00 District of Columbia
45 Florida
01 Hawaii

06 Idaho
16 Illinois
11 Indiana
33 Iowa
117 Kansas

06 Kentucky
16 Louisiana
00 Maine
00 Maryland
01 Massachusetts

05 Michigan
74 Minnesota
66 Mississippi
22 Missouri
11 Montana

40 Nebraska
01 Nevada
00 New Hampshire
00 New Jersey
06 New Mexico

04 New York
22 North Carolina
57 North Dakota
03 Ohio
26 Oklahoma

01 Oregon
11 Pennsylvania
00 Rhode Island
14 South Carolina
19 South Dakota

01 Tennessee
105 Texas
04 Utah
00 Vermont
24 Virginia

04 Washington
00 West Virginia
70 Wisconsin
07 Wyoming

What are county-segments in NCDC tornado data? A county-segment is that portion of a tornado's path within a single county. If a tornado stays in one county, then a "tornado" is the same as a "segment." But this also means that tornadoes are counted twice when they cross into another county, three times when they enter a third county, and so forth. The reason for county-segment tornado recordkeeping is that the National Weather Service verifies tornado warnings by county. So when you look at NCDC tornado databases or the NWS Natural Hazard Statistics (based on Storm Data), you are not counting tornadoes, but instead county-segments of tornado tracks. This causes inflation of the tornado totals often reported by media and others who do not notice this important distinction. Source: SPC

Mike
http://mgweather.com (My Resume)
http://www.mgeukes.blogspot.com (My blog)

Only one tornado in TN? I thought there were at least 2-3....?

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Looks like Kansas was the place to be in '05 ...

Watch out Colorado, California is hot on your tail. Florida also continues to enjoy a rotation celebration these days. Texas certainly had a great showing this year as well, not far behind Kansas. Oklahoma continues to be caught in the great tornadic depression.

 

[Jeff Miller]

If this chart is to prove accurate for future trends, I would certainly predict '06 to be a better year with '07 being a banner year for tornadic activity in Oklahoma (again, only going by the obvious trends that this chart is showing in previous tornadic minimum years.) Will be interesting to see if that holds up. There hasn't been a period of more than one year of extreme minimum activity, but scarily, the "minimum years" definately have been increasing and getting closer in number year by year. 2002-2005 is almost like 1950-1952 except on a more extreme number.

The next few years should say a lot about oklahoma tornadic potential in my opinion.

To make it clear, I am only using this chart and no other meteorological information, climatological history, or any other predictive analysis in this little quip.

 

[mikegeukes]

Only one tornado in TN? I thought there were at least 2-3....?

The data only goes thru September 30, 2005 and are tornado counted county segments.

Mike

 

[Andy Wehrle]

How about WI, though:

Yearly average: 21 tornadoes

2001: 12 tornadoes (1 F2+)
2002: 26 tornadoes (3 F2+)
2003: 14 tornadoes (all F0-F1)
2004: 36 tornadoes (4 F2+)
2005: 62 tornadoes (3 F2+)

Source: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mkx/climate-severe.php

What a turnaround!

I think May 3, 1999 used up most of Oklahoma's tornado allotment for the next 5 years. :wink:

 

[Shane Adams]

Can't say it enough, amazes me how OK is always the topic when tornadoes don't happen. Weird why no other state raises eyebrows.

 

[Rick Smith]

The preliminary count for Oklahoma for 2005 is 26. This is still subject to change.

Also interesting to note this will be the first year since 1988 that there were no F2-F5 tornadoes in the state, as well as the first ever May with no tornadoes.

Rick

 

[Robert Dewey]

Can't say it enough, amazes me how OK is always the topic when tornadoes don't happen. Weird why no other state raises eyebrows.

I agree... When OK has few tornadoes, it's considered an overall drought even if everyother state scored high. It seems like OK is the benchmark for all activity on the plains... (at least that's how some view it I think)

Judging by the videos and photos from various chasers, I wouldn't exactly call this a bad year either.

 

[nickgrillo]

You got that right, it was a great year for many chasers. I can't stand it when I hear people say "bad years"... Yeah, sure there are plenty of years with fewer tornadoes, which is why a chaser should educate themself to the point of a "meteorologist without a degree" and make accurate targetting and chasing decisions (as much as possible), and not wait for the "perfect" day. Most of the days this year which were forecasted outbreak days (namely 5-11 and 6-4) were fat busts for lots of people (including myself).

This year was below average for many areas... But this year still carried very good chase ops (just like any other year). Maybe I'm just used to squeezing out mediocore setups, given I've grown up in MI