State of the Chase Season: 2019

[chrisbray]

since this hasn't been started yet....take it away! From my limited understanding signs are much more positive than last year.

 

[Todd Lemery]

I’m not smart enough to know if this year will be better, but I like the way you think!

 

[James Wilson]

Some of my best chase years have been El Nino years ... 2015 and 2016 for example I saw over 50 tornadoes with a couple big event days. I expect the impact to be very positive this year as well though those years had a STRONG El Nino.

 

[Devin Pitts]

One thing I like this early out is our drought situation compared to the last few years at around this time. I feel quite a bit more optimistic than I did around this time last year that's for sure.

 

[Jason Boggs]

Of course the TX Panhandle will get storms, but I'm not so sure that we'll have a big tornado year. I'm thinking the biggest tor threat will be east of I-35 this year. We just haven't seen any moisture here (TX PANHANDLE) all winter. I think CO will see a nice season in late May through June.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Chase seasons since 1980 with at least weak El Niño:

2016: strongly peaking El Niño
2010: moderately peaking El Niño
2007: weakly peaking El Niño
2005: weakly peaking El Niño
2003: strong El Niño weakening
1998: strong El Niño in winter almost completely gone by spring
1997: strengthening strong El Niño
1987: moderate El Niño
1983: strong El Niño weakening

Some good seasons in there, but a few really bad ones too.

From a blog post last year (graphics included):

http://stormhighway.com/blog2018/march1918a.php

 

[Paul Knightley]

Dan's very informative post sums it up succinctly - some good, some bad! Overall, my understanding is that La Nina years tend to favour more violent outbreaks, especially in the early season. El Nino less so. But I think when the overall tropical forcing is weak, then it's harder to make a really good analogue set. Sub-seasonal effects like the MJO will always tend to modulate what happens on a narrower part of the season (i.e. I'm thinking about those of us limited to a fixed 2-week period).
Some good papers out there about this stuff - e.g. https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JAMC-D-16-0249.1

 

[samuel stone]

One observation i can make is that soils and aquifers in kansas are literally bursting with water, small creeks and runs that rarely or never flow consistently have had constant flow for months. We had a very wet late summer through now. I haven't seen this type of saturation, this time of year in the last 15 years. Take from that what you will. Less mixing? beter evapotranspiration? none of it matters though if the large scale jet stream pattern isn't favorable in the spring

 

[Warren Faidley]

CFS is very quiet ATM through March, although I'm not sure of the long term accuracy. The three month CPC outlook does not currently show any "below average" probabilities in the Plains. In other words, nothing negative pops out. I think we are still about a month away from seeing how the current pattern transitions, or at least a long-shot hint of things to come, like last year where the early lack of tornado activity did relate to a crummy season.

 

[James Gustina]

Hopefully, this looks like the last major arctic air intrusion onto the central and southern Great Plains for the near term. The GFS-FV3 is a little less nice with the upcoming pattern (it's also had a less than consistent winter thus far) but the standard GFS and Euro both point to a possible pattern shift with a more northerly trough path heading just past the 240 hour mark. I very much doubt we see any meaningful moisture return out of the Gulf this early in the year just judging by the multiple troughs moving through the south-central Great Plains in quick succession, but it's definitely a bit more heartening to see this early in the year as compared to the last 2 seasons.

 

[Todd Lemery]

Accuweather posted this for what it’s worth.

 

[Warren Faidley]

LOL, that's the exact map I've drawn and many others accounting for a maturing dryline further east during a drought pattern.

 

[James Wilson]

 

[chrisbray]

Seems to be another strong trough coming across the south on Saturday.

 

[Devin Pitts]

Looks like March really did come in like a lion, unfortunately...