Southwestern US Monsoon 2025

[William Monfredo]

...but it is just early July...

...chasing in that region...

I lived in AZ for eight years, and the monsoons provided the singular opportunity for storms w/ lightning with often good clarity. While Warren shot in the Tucson area, I focused on Grand Canyon & Flagstaff in the north.

The freezing level as it relates to lightning production’s seemingly lower compared to where the photographer stands when you’re already at 6000-7000 feet, so lightning appears to happen quickly from smaller-looking storms.

I believe there’s time for rebounds and reboots for a couple of months still.

One of my favorite things, the anvils from the North Rim of the Grand Canyon would blow off a dozen miles to the South Rim and create a steely gray-blue look to the sky. I also particularly remember the flash floods at the Park would spill out over the sides of the Canyon rim.

When the storms evaporated, they left behind orphan anvils: Cirrus spissatus cumulonimbogenitus. I learned that Latin phrase just because it sounds so dorky. But, it's not entirely necessary to do the Southwest if you already know where and when to get other lightning storms.

 

[William Monfredo]

One of mine that shows a distant thundercloud across the Grand Canyon in AZ. I hope this year produces some more storms there, too.

 

[James K]

I also particularly remember the flash floods at the Park would spill out over the sides of the Canyon rim.

Oooh I bet that would be a sight to see! (and deff would need videoing !)

Cirrus spissatus cumulonimbogenitus.

sounds like some sorta disease (especially the last word) or something .lol.
I'm gonna have to put that into an AI image generator & see what it comes up with.....

 

[Warren Faidley]

Well, well, well..... was going to write something about how next week was looking, but the NWS did a much more professional job, so I'll post their comments:

NEXT WEEK IS SHAPING UP TO BE AN ACTIVE MONSOON WEEK RIGHT AS WE GET
INTO THE HEART OF THE MONSOON FROM A CLIMATOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE. THE
MID-UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS
WITH NE FLOW OVER SE ARIZONA EARLY IN THE WEEK, WHICH WILL THEN
TRANSITION TO EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST
AND A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST HELPING TO PUMP IN
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WITH ELEVATED STORM CHANCES. THIS TYPE OF SETUP
WOULD YIELD STORM IMPACTS LEANING TOWARDS A SEVERE THREAT AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WITH A TRANSITION TO BOTH A SEVERE AND FLASH
FLOOD THREAT AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

 

[joel ewing]

It's that time of year to start the annual monsoon thread.

Still too early to make a reliable forecast, but current trends suggest the usual start in about three weeks.

Some early wild cards this year include tropical activity near the Baja Peninsula that could cause early RH surges and the effect of recent rains
on stabilizing dust beds. I have not had time yet to inspect the dust beds, but it only takes a few weeks of 110º F+ to bake them properly
for haboob production. In fact, sometimes, early rains can produce small plant blooms that dies in the heat, becoming potential airborne particles
during dust storms.

I will be going live this year on YouTube during the BIG monsoon / haboob days, so stay tuned.

Hey Warren! Well, like you.....I've lived in Tucson for many decades....64 years actually, and just like last monsoon season.....I don't think that it's gonna be much of a monsoon at all. And oh man.....we're in such a horrific draught now.....I've NEVER seen this Sonoran Desert in as bad a shape as it is now......EVER. I live in the desert.....not in town. Always lived in the desert, really. Older readers may remember the old cowboy trick of when cattle were in near-dead condition from draught conditions, they would take burners and light various cacti on fire....so it would burn off all the thorns, then the cattle would eat the cacti...usually prickly-pear....and get the moisture out of it. But even the prickly-pears are so dried up, they are dying too. This is getting REAL OLD. Please keep a good thought for us down here. Respects, joel ewing

 

[William Monfredo]

Please keep a good thought...

Thanks for the anecdote.
I would not advocate for a persistence forecast. (The first two weeks of July is not a predictor of a season that runs until October 1.)
The North American "monsoon" from Mexico into the Southwest produces highly-variable rain totals across extremely short distances.
Regardless, I hope you get some in your bucket, too.