Something has gone wrong with the global weather pattern...

[Mike Peregrine]

http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2005/hurricanes.html

Kerry Emanuel is a well-respected professor of meteorology at MIT. The findings of his work concerning global warming have been and continue to be hotly debated. Of course, we aren't scientifically establishing anything by our conversations in Stormtrack, but it is still certainly within the limits of our shared interest to at least talk about why global warming may or may not lay a reasonable groundwork for the explanation of various events. Global warming is a fact. What causes it and the extent of its affects are both what result in the focus for the current debate.

 

[Mike Gauldin]

Not trying to start anything, as most of you probably have more knowledge than I about this (so I really shouldn't say anything, but meh)

I think people in general like to blame things on media hype. El Nino, Global Warming. There isn't enough research to say for sure what causes these drastic changes, as we don't have records back far enough to compare. While these could be at fault, they might also have little or nothing to do with how the weather is acting. I just don't think we have enough evidence to support either argument, while the 'facts' can be strewed to prove either point.

Weather is like politics. Multiple groups, all with their own 'facts' and arguments to prove their points, when really it's just a lot of wasted time. I just can't blame changes on what the media throws out there, or what either side has to prove. Simple fact is, 2005 broke hurricane RECORDS (that is only about 55 years of data). I'm sure down the road we will have a year that breaks 2005. What will it be then?

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

Originally posted by Scott A. Kampas
Normal? What is normal but a mean of extremes?

Exactly. An "average high" is now what the temperature is 'supposed to be' .. but just an average of all the past high temperatures.. There is no "normal"

 

[Jay McCoy]

The only thing I can say about global warming is this. Ofcourse the earth is getting warmer. it has been getting warmer since the end of the ice age. That is why the ice age ended.

People scream about polar caps and glaciers melting. They have been melting for centuries. Much of North America was covered in ice during the ice age but it has now melted just like it is still melting. I dont buy that we have caused this global warming. It is a natural process. Should we have started freaking out when the glaciers in Yellowstone melted?

As for weather patterns being extreme. This is just another dip in a pattern we dont understand becuase our records dont go back that far. We have had hot winters and droughts before. 99, 80, etc.. So if next year is extremely cold and wet then is that a major shift in global patterns and warming or is it just another fluctuation in the pattern that gives us our "norms"?

 

[j_scheerer]

You're exactly right Jay, this winter reminds me of winter 1995.

 

[David Wolfson]

Everyone's saying about the same thing. The e-a system is bounded chaotic, but science has pretty well established that the system is being forced by greenhouse gas warming. Will this mean more variability? They dunno. But can the warm extreme phenomena expect to be favored by a thumb on the scale -- very likely.

The telling thing for me is that the measured effects seem to be tracking the high end of the modeled effects very well. Ft. Yukon may be cold at the moment but the odds are that when all is said and done the disproportionate warming of the arctic regions will persist and increase.

And because it's a bounded chaotic system it's hard to predict how the global forcing will manifest itself in local extremes, or even (God forbid!) under what circumstances some aspects could settle into very different stability ranges. Many scientists are saying that the earth is entering a warm era that hasn't manifested for hundreds of thousands of years. That's getting into a geologic time frame and gets my attention!

I'd hate for our descendents to experience a global hiccup such as large-scale arctic tundra and undersea methane release. The effects would likely be a blip on the geologic time scale and soon mitigated by countervailing effects. But human civilization as we've come to know it might not survive.

 

[Jay McCoy]

But thats the whole point David. these are geological cycles. Maybe things will change where we as humans have a difficult time surviving. Maybe we arent suppose to just like the dinasaurs didnt. I dont think it is manmade though. Greenhouse gasses are releases not only by man but naturally. The arctic has been warming and melting for centuries. There is far less ice now than there was 500 years ago and there is no way to dipsute that. there was less ice 500 years ago than 5000 years ago. Does that mean man caused that too? if so how? it was before machinery and gas emitions.

All of this is part of earths natural cycle. some parts of the wrold are warming while other parts are cooling. The world constantly changes which is what gives us weather in the 1st place. No way for us to control it.

 

[Aaron Kennedy]

So where is the CO2 coming from that's natural? All evidence points to CO2/ Methane etc coming from human intervention. There haven't been that many Volcanic eruptions!

Aaron

 

[Bill Hamilton]

Originally posted by Aaron Kennedy
So where is the CO2 coming from that's natural? All evidence points to CO2/ Methane etc coming from human intervention. There haven't been that many Volcanic eruptions!

Aaron

Here is one possible explaination.

The methane in gas hydrates is dominantly generated by bacterial degradation of organic matter in low oxygen environments. Organic matter in the uppermost few cm of sediments is first attacked by aerobic bacteria, generating CO2, which escapes from the sediments into the water column.......

http://ethomas.web.wesleyan.edu/ees123/clathrate.htm
http://www.sciencenews.org/pages/sn_arch/1...1_9_96/bob1.htm

 

[Jay McCoy]

I am not saying man hasnt contributed situation with C02 and with deforesting the CO2 will only get worse but I think the warming is also a natural process that has been going on for thousands of years since the end of the ice age.

And I dont think we can be certain exactly how much we have warmed in the past century. i dont think they could accurately measure tempurature to the .10 degree back in 1900

 

[Robert Dewey]

Where's Captain Planet? He's my hero... He's gonna take this polution down to zero! :lol:

The power, is yours!

 

[David Wolfson]

I'm sure no expert in paleonology, but they can indeed draw inferences before there were satellites or thermometers. Among other things they look at various markers like the geographical distribution of pollen in sediments. For example, if a particular species is associated now with a temperature range, then it's reasonable to assume it was in the past. I'm quite sure there are several other independent yardsticks for estimating historical temperatures including gas content.

 

[Bill Tabor]

Originally posted by Chris Rozoff
I look forward to learning more about what led to this year's dangerously dry and warm conditions over the states.

Chris

Very interesting graph Chris. Thanks for sharing that. Some things I notice are that we are almost at the peak of the historic CO2 max cycle meaning we should start dropping "soon". However I note that this CO2 peak seems to hesitate more than past peaks a bit. Also note that our current temps are not as high as the ones in past CO2 peaks at the same level. In fact it appears the temperature is sitting in a standard range for maybe 10,000 years or so.

Also interesting article and facts posted by Mike in this thread on the subject:
http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=9980

 

[David Wolfson]

Uh, Bill, the current atmospheric CO2 concentration is over 380 ppmv.... See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:CO2-Mauna-Loa.png and look at Chris' graph again....

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Yes, there is a NATURAL fluctuation in various gas levels, but the "big deal" is the rate at which these have increased in the past 100. As Chris said, few argue that natural process aren't playing in any role. However, the recent rise in both global temperature and various gas concentrations has been much, much higher in the past 100 years (much less the past 25) than before that time.

For those who are getting a 'broken image' for the second link in Chris's post, the image can be accessed at http://serc.carleton.edu/images/introgeo/t...th_Pole_CO2.gif