Something has gone wrong with the global weather pattern...

[Mark Farnik]

I first knew something had gone awry when we reached a high of 59 degrees on Christmas Day in northern Colorado. :? With each passing day of this continued abnormal warmth, I am more and more convinced that something has gone wrong with the global weather pattern. While the majority of the United States is experiencing a prolonged wave of record warmth that makes it feel more like late March than late January, Russia, Siberia and Scandinavia are experiencing an unrelenting deep freeze that has claimed the lives of over a hundred people. An unprecedented record snowstorm blasted Athens over the weekend, bringing several inches of snow and howling winds to a city that has seen snow of any significance maybe a dozen times in the last couple of centuries. :shock: Australia is being burned by record smashing heat and raging brushfires. Much of eastern Asia's higher elevations have been buried by record setting snowfall. A tropical depression lingers off the coast of Vietnam; it is not supposed to be there. It is the wrong time of year. Spring flowers are blooming in Montana and Wyoming, and birds are migrating northwards. And don't forget Tropical Storm Zeta, which dissipated only a few weeks back after becoming the longest lived out-of- season Atlantic tropical cyclone. Something is very, very wrong with the weather pattern. What is happening now reminds me of the description of the weather pattern in the first chapter of the book "The Coming Global Superstorm", which was later made into "The Day After Tomorrow. It's very creepy. :shock: I don't necessarily believe there is a global superstorm imminent, but I have a feeling if the weather continues to slide further out of whack as time goes on, we could all be in serious trouble. Maybe someone should check to see if the North Atlantic current has finally made its long predicted shift to the south...
Comments and discussion welcome.

 

[B Ozanne]

Ah....and all of this is called the weather. Unless you live in places like Seattle or Honolulu this is exactly what to expect. What I am trying to say is that experiencing the average conditions is actually quite abnormal. This is what happens in the mid-latitudes. Sometimes its above normal, sometimes its below. This January in the northeast is shaping up to be very warm, the last two were very cold. Its been cold in Moscow and eastern Europe, but that happens. As far as Siberia, I haven't seen anything that impressive. I haven't seen any -80F type stuff, which is common every few years.

Record snowfall you saw on tv in Japan? Those places are known as the snowiest cities/sea level locations in the world. No surprise there. They get so much snow their streets are heated. City streets, not just driveways.

Heat in Australia? Not shocked there, its generally pretty warm there and its summer after all. Records have to get broken somehow.

Snow in Athens? Sounds bad, but that does happen. I did see some photos of snowplows on the streets. They had those snowplows for a reason. Actually, Greece gets some serious winter storms.

I've noticed that the media is calling this "some wild weather." They say that at least 12 times a year. If something happens that frequently I wouldn't call it wild. I should keep track of how often the guy on my local Fox channel calls it wild weather.

Now, the North Atlantic Current shutting down. That is interesting. Some recent research states that it has significantly slowed over the past few decades.

 

[Dan Robinson]

I used to feel like this until I realized I was posting things to weather lists every few months with some 'unprecedented' event that I saw. After a few years I started to realize, hey, this weird stuff is happening all the time and has been happening throughout history. This winter we've had numerous thunderstorms from November through January. Normally that's something that I'd be floored about. But I've seen it before. Nothing surprises me anymore. In fact I would be more surprised if things were normal for an extended period of time.

One thing that chasing has taught me is that there really isn't an off-season that you can relax and forget about missing anything. Just about anything can happen year-round.

 

[Scott A. Kampas]

Normal? What is normal but a mean of extremes?

 

[B Ozanne]

Originally posted by Scott A. Kampas
Normal? What is normal but a mean of extremes?

Exactly, the media has no concept of standard deviations either.

 

[John Massura]

Re: Something has gone wrong with the global weather pattern

Originally posted by Mark Farnik
A tropical depression lingers off the coast of Vietnam; it is not supposed to be there. It is the wrong time of year.

There was a weak tropical disturbance (strong emphasis on weak) that sort of developed in the South China Sea, but it never had winds over 20 knots, and was ripped apart by the northeast monsoon (which is normal and has been in place as normal this year).

Tropical cyclones can happen any month of the year in the west Pacific, but I agree, this time of year is their minimum. Of course, Singapore got hit with a typhoon this time of year back in 2001.

 

[Mark Farnik]

B Ozanne said:

Ah....and all of this is called the weather. Unless you live in places like Seattle or Honolulu this is exactly what to expect. What I am trying to say is that experiencing the average conditions is actually quite abnormal. This is what happens in the mid-latitudes. Sometimes its above normal, sometimes its below. This January in the northeast is shaping up to be very warm, the last two were very cold. Its been cold in Moscow and eastern Europe, but that happens. As far as Siberia, I haven't seen anything that impressive. I haven't seen any -80F type stuff, which is common every few years.

Record snowfall you saw on tv in Japan? Those places are known as the snowiest cities/sea level locations in the world. No surprise there. They get so much snow their streets are heated. City streets, not just driveways.

Heat in Australia? Not shocked there, its generally pretty warm there and its summer after all. Records have to get broken somehow.

Snow in Athens? Sounds bad, but that does happen. I did see some photos of snowplows on the streets. They had those snowplows for a reason. Actually, Greece gets some serious winter storms.

I've noticed that the media is calling this "some wild weather." They say that at least 12 times a year. If something happens that frequently I wouldn't call it wild. I should keep track of how often the guy on my local Fox channel calls it wild weather.

Yes, there are always deviations in the weather pattern. It happens. But it's when the deviations are extreme that it is unsettling. I'm willing to bet that the entirety of the Great Plains haven't seen such a prolonged winter "heat wave" in at least a hundred years, and probably a lot longer than that. When spring flowers begin blooming three months early, and migratory birds, who aren't easily fooled, are flying north, you know something is amiss. The fact that Fargo, North Dakota has not dropped below zero in almost two months is very bizarre. Also consider that much of southern Canada has been running above average temps, since the polar jetstream is locked in over the far northern stretches of that country. This type of unrelenting Pacific zonal flow is just downright wrong for the dead of winter. If not the world, the U.S. will likely be experiencing even more extremely deviant weather as we progress through 2006. And yes, Scott, the normal is nothing but a mean of extremes. Well said, my friend.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

The big climate debate continues and will probably go on and on ...

The weather has changed. The fact that folks would rather pretend it's part of the status quo has not.

Whether owed to normal, cyclical solar or earthly fluctuations or to the escalation in greenhouse gasses by man, there is no more denying that climate is going through a noticeable overhaul right now. My biggest question is the same asked by the author of this thread ... whether the large-scale global changes are now having a more noticeable effect on some of the things noted in this thread and localized, 'extreme' weather events. It's true ... abnormalities and things we consider to be 'extreme' have always been around (and the point that "normal" is defined by a mean of extremes is well-taken) ... but at least on the surface they do seem to be increasing in quantity and severity as time goes on, and they are affecting larger numbers of people. I'm sure we'll continue to hear more about it ...

From http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.html :

... the concern is not with the fact that we have a greenhouse effect, but whether human activities are leading to an enhancement of the greenhouse effect. ...

... Is the climate warming? Yes. Global surface temperatures have increased about 0.6?C (plus or minus 0.2?C) since the late-19th century, and about 0.4?F (0.2 to 0.3?C) over the past 25 years (the period with the most credible data). ...

... Indirect indicators of warming such as borehole temperatures, snow cover, and glacier recession data, are in substantial agreement with the more direct indicators of recent warmth. ...

...Arctic sea ice has decreased between 1973 and 1996 at a rate of -2.8 +/- 0.3%/decade...

...Northern Hemisphere annual snow cover extent has consistently remained below average since 1987, and has decreased by about 10% since 1966. This is mostly due to a decrease in spring and summer snowfall over both the Eurasian and North American continents since the mid-1980s. ...

...on regional scales, there is clear evidence of changes in variability or extremes. ...

On the question of what the future holds:

According to the range of possible forcing scenarios, and taking into account uncertainty in climate model performance, the IPCC projects a global temperature increase of anywhere from 1.4 - 5.8?C from 1990-2100. However, this global average will integrate widely varying regional responses, such as the likelihood that land areas will warm much faster than ocean temperatures, particularly those land areas in northern high latitudes (and mostly in the cold season).

Precipitation is also expected to increase over the 21st century, particularly at northern mid-high latitudes, though the trends may be more variable in the tropics.

Snow extent and sea-ice are also projected to decrease further in the northern hemisphere, and glaciers and ice-caps are expected to continue to retreat.

 

[Shane Adams]

When things return more to "normal" over the next year's cycle, this year won't matter. I remember a little thing in the 30s called the Dust Bowl. That was a years-long era of unusually dry and arid conditions. But somehow the climate survived and things returned to "normal". What I mean to say is, if anyone thinks this year is an indication of what will be "normal" from now on, they are quite mistaken IMO. Folks can label me 'in denial' or whatever, but I just don't buy the "Day After Tomorrow" global warming thing.

I can remember 70-degree days in December twenty years ago. I remember the drought/heat wave of 1980. I saw the longest OK tornado drought in history in 2002-2003, after experiencing the state's most active tornado season on record just four years prior. Fluctuations happen, otherwise "normal" wouldn't exist.

 

[Bill Tabor]

Originally posted by Mike Peregrine

Whether owed to normal, cyclical solar or earthly fluctuations or to the escalation in greenhouse gasses by man, there is no more denying that climate is going through a noticeable overhaul right now.

Last time I made a similar statement I was quickly reminded of variability and a document by Doswell. Check out Dr Chuck's words here:
http://www.cimms.ou.edu/~doswell/Normals/normal.html

He notes that variability is the norm, and in particular that our records don't go back very far so we aren't really in position to know what is normal.

Additionally I would like to point out that it only takes once good volcano eruption to dwarf anything man has done ever to the atmosphere. Eruptions of the past have had significant effect on green house gases and caused global stagation / destruction of growing seasons including extinctions. On another note we are "due" for super volcano Yellowstone to erupt. Now that would be a real problem.

 

[John MacKay]

The period of warmth has been longer than usual, but looking at Wichita's F6s for January and Februrary, there have been some January's and Februrary's that have looked like this in the past (most notably, look at Februrary 1999 in the midst of a La Nina). Although, seeing the lowest high temperature in Wichita this month being 40 and only below 20 once, there is a uniqueness to this pattern.

I also found out severe weather can occur in January in northern KS. Until this past weekend, the earliest I remember severe weather occurring in the year was Feb. 17th in 2000, when some hail, possibly up to golfball size at times as I recall, fell when the temperature was hovering around 40 degrees at 9 PM.

 

[B Ozanne]

Originally posted by John MacKay
The period of warmth has been longer than usual, but looking at Wichita's F6s for January and Februrary, there have been some January's and Februrary's that have looked like this in the past (most notably, look at Februrary 1999 in the midst of a La Nina). Although, seeing the lowest high temperature in Wichita this month being 40 and only below 20 once, there is a uniqueness to this pattern.

I also found out severe weather can occur in January in northern KS. Until this past weekend, the earliest I remember severe weather occurring in the year was Feb. 17th in 2000, when some hail, possibly up to golfball size at times as I recall, fell when the temperature was hovering around 40 degrees at 9 PM.

If all you had to do was look back to 1999 this thread is pretty much wrapped up then.

BTW, some very cold air is now moving into interior Alaska. Fort Yukon is now at -52F, off their low of -56F a few hours ago. Tonight promises to be a little colder. Armed with a trusty alcohol thermometer and knowledge of the local cold spots you could make a run at the North American record low tonight. Well, maybe not, but worth watching.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Originally posted by B Ozanne+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(B Ozanne)</div>

<!--QuoteBegin-John MacKay

The period of warmth has been longer than usual, but looking at Wichita's F6s for January and Februrary, there have been some January's and Februrary's that have looked like this in the past (most notably, look at Februrary 1999 in the midst of a La Nina). Although, seeing the lowest high temperature in Wichita this month being 40 and only below 20 once, there is a uniqueness to this pattern.

I also found out severe weather can occur in January in northern KS. Until this past weekend, the earliest I remember severe weather occurring in the year was Feb. 17th in 2000, when some hail, possibly up to golfball size at times as I recall, fell when the temperature was hovering around 40 degrees at 9 PM.

If all you had to do was look back to 1999 this thread is pretty much wrapped up then.

BTW, some very cold air is now moving into interior Alaska. Fort Yukon is now at -52F, off their low of -56F a few hours ago. Tonight promises to be a little colder. Armed with a trusty alcohol thermometer and knowledge of the local cold spots you could make a run at the North American record low tonight. Well, maybe not, but worth watching.[/b]

From what I've seen, the North America record is -81.4F at Snag in Canada's Yukon Territory (Feb. 3, 1947). They have another VERY tough 30 degrees to drop before breaking that record. They may have a tough time with the lower-48 record of -70F. LOL Point taken however -- it's cold up there right now!

 

[B Ozanne]

Originally posted by Jeff Snyder

From what I've seen, the North America record is -81.4F at Snag in Canada's Yukon Territory (Feb. 3, 1947). They have another VERY tough 30 degrees to drop before breaking that record. They may have a tough time with the lower-48 record of -70F. LOL Point taken however -- it's cold up there right now!

You're right, 30 degrees is a lot. I was thinking about large diurnal swings, which they really don't have up there right now. I do think -60 is in range though, especially if you went out looking for that mark. Again, very cold up there, even for Alaska.

 

[George Tincher]

Originally posted by Shane Adams
When things return more to "normal" over the next year's cycle, this year won't matter. I remember a little thing in the 30s called the Dust Bowl. That was a years-long era of unusually dry and arid conditions. But somehow the climate survived and things returned to "normal". What I mean to say is, if anyone thinks this year is an indication of what will be "normal" from now on, they are quite mistaken IMO. Folks can label me 'in denial' or whatever, but I just don't buy the "Day After Tomorrow" global warming thing.

I can remember 70-degree days in December twenty years ago. I remember the drought/heat wave of 1980. I saw the longest OK tornado drought in history in 2002-2003, after experiencing the state's most active tornado season on record just four years prior. Fluctuations happen, otherwise "normal" wouldn't exist.

I couldn't agree more.

I was amazed how the news media tried to use the Global Warming angle to explain why last year's hurricane season was so active, despite experts from the NHC telling them that we were simply in an active cycle and citing other periods with a similar level of activity.

And remember 1998, when El Nino was blamed for all of the tornado outbreaks? Come to think of it, El Nino was blamed for just about everything under the sun.

Some things may going on as far as climate change. But I think many people are really jumping the gun and reaching to suggest many of the extreme weather events are somehow related to Global Warming.