Severe weather expected in Estonia and neighboring countries

[Tarmo Tanilsoo]

After a longer break, an extratropical storm is now headed toward Estonia. High wind warnings have been already issued at coastal areas. Wind gusts are expected to reach 50 miles per hour at some places. High water levels up to a meter above mean sea level are expected in southwestern Sweden. I will keep you updated on upcoming storm.

Cyclone is currently having central pressure of 982 millibars, but according to OPC, it is rapidly intensifying and according to latest GFS run, minimal pressure is expected to drop below 960 millibars within next 24 hours.

 

[Marko Korosec]

This system is bringing strong cold front with quite intense cold air outbreak across the whole central Europe into the Balkans on Monday, it will be actually the strongest outbreak this winter season if we can call it "winter", unbelivable!

We're expecting strong winds gusting to 50mph as well along with quite a lot of precipitation (about 3-4" with places exceeding 10" - orographic precips) with secondary lee cyclogenesis behind the Alps when front passes them on Monday and also some snow later on the evening and on Tuesday, maybe 5-10" in some lower places and 30"+ in higher elevations.

Here are two GFS maps if anyone is interested, pretty impressive for this time of the year, certainly not the usual thing!





Finally some action also here, I am expecting some nice storms, maybe also some thundersnow.

 

[Tarmo Tanilsoo]

This morning, (at least) Laguja area woke up with white grounds. It has snowed overnight. At the moment, air temperature is 29,8°F and it is rather calm. However, it was windy at night.

I think that calm weather and clear sky right now might be a silence before a storm since I remember 19 March 2006 event. It was rather peaceful in the morning, but by noon, it had turned into a blizzard. Winds gusted over 30 mph and occasional snow squalls went over. I have some webcam shots from that day. By the evening, there was convective activity, cumulonimbus clouds were seen in Laguja and roads were pretty much clogged up with snow.

 

[Tarmo Tanilsoo]

Looks that I need to carefully watch this storm. ETV24 has reported that winds in Sweden were much higher than forecasted, reached to 56 mph. 11,000 households have been left without electricity.

In Laguja, currently there are some interesting clouds in Southwest and weather is rather calm.

Edit: SMHI says that last 24 hours peak wind gust in Sweden has been 67 mph.
Edit 2: One station in Norway just reported 92 mph gust few hours ago.

 

[Tarmo Tanilsoo]

Latest report from my home:

This is what I currently see in southwestern sky. Clouds indicate that something bad is indeed coming(I saw the same clouds during October 2006 storm when it approached). Roughly 10 minutes ago, I measured a wind gust of 18 miles per hour from west-southwest. 1 minute average wind was 7 mph.

 

[Tarmo Tanilsoo]

Southwestern sky in Laguja right now.
Wind gusts have now intensified in Laguja to 22 miles per hour and weather keeps getting cloudier. Air temperature is right now 42 degrees Fahrenheit. According to my infrared thermometer, temperature of cloud bases is approximately 21°F. Wind is blowing from southwesterly directions.

 

[Tarmo Tanilsoo]

This is sky in Laguja right now. Wind gusts have now intensified to 27 mph. 1 minute average wind is 11 mph. Wind is right now southerly.

According to EMHI, wind gusts have increased to 38 mph at our islands. Also, it has started to snow in northwestern parts of a country after a cold front is moving in. Now the latest bulletin is that Estonian Meteorological and Hydrological Institute has put whole Estonia under storm warning. Wind gusts up to 56 mph are possible.

 

[Tarmo Tanilsoo]

This was the sky and ground about 5 minutes ago:


It is still very windy, according to EMHI, wind gusts in my neck of the woods have reached 29 mph. Cold front has moved in to Laguja as well and rain has changed into sleet. Sleet can also be seen on a webcam image I just linked. Currently, air temperature is 33,1 degrees Fahrenheit. However, I have heard that temperatures are rising again in the western part of the country.

 

[Tarmo Tanilsoo]

This is the sky right now:


At the moment, clouds have broken a bit. Winds are now in its maximum here in Laguja. 1 minute average wind is 13 miles per hour. Wind gusts are up to 36 miles per hour. Air temperature is right now 41 degrees Fahrenheit.

 

[Tarmo Tanilsoo]

This was sky roughly 20 minutes ago:


At noon Estonian time, electricity was knocked off in Laguja, it came back on half a hour ago. Winds were high all day, gusting up to 36 miles per hour. Now wind has diminished. Wind started diminishing rapidly during this hour.