RIP 2018 chase season / season summaries

[Warren Faidley]

2018 looked abysmal from my first post in the 2018 state of the season thread. I could never really get into the season and I'm glad I jumped ship early. My "gut feeling" is that 2019 will be better as there seems to be some drought relief in the west.

 

[JamesCaruso]

...

...

The next day saw us drive through Dodge and head to NW OK - nice supercell but missed the tornadoes SW of Dodge - which was a bit of a sore point as the conditions in Dodge, when we stopped for lunch, looked pretty ripe (decent dewpoints, backed flow, bubbly Cu).

....

Dodge that day is a sore point for me too because I knew the outflow boundary had already lifted that far north but I stayed in NW OK because several cells had gone up in the exact same spot before dissipating as they moved north, until one took root and developed and I stayed with it. I was influenced by the Dodge City AFD, which mentioned the OFB having lifted north but still said ”Any tornado potential would be located across the far SE, if that.” They didn’t seem too bullish about tornados, and considering that the “far SE” of DDC’s area is along the OK border out to Comanche and Barber counties, and since I was actually already on a developing storm just south of the border, I thought I was in good shape. That turned out to be my only chase with anything interesting at all, after having missed both WY and CO on the two preceding days.

 

[Jeff Duda]

2018 was abhorrently disgusting from a perspective of a springtime plains chaser. As in 2017, the year-end nationwide statistics will not tell the story of the dearth of tornado events on the traditional great Plains from late March through June. The best days in the US overall in 2018 occurred in Wyoming, Montana, and Iowa, with the latter occurring in mid-July. With the exception of 1 May in NC KS, the year was forgettable unless you happened to be in Wyoming, Montana, or Iowa on those few special days.

For me personally and statistically, this year wasn't actually as bad as 2013 and 2014 were. I still haven't fully lived down my disastrous "miss" of three consecutive days of significant tornadoes within 250 miles of where I was living (two of them being within 20 miles) in May 2013, and I didn't catch the big three-day outbreak in NE/SD in 2014. It didn't help that I recently relocated to the Denver area and thus my comfortable chasing territory also substantially shifted northwestward. I did manage to get out a handful of times for nearby chases and even scored a few tornadoes. One of them was even an impressive event relative to the rest of the year, but it was still generally disappointing.

Chases: 5 (all within a 41-day stretch from mid-May to late June)
Tornadoes: ~3 (not sure if I will count all the distant, brief landspouts on 28 May)
Tornado days: 2 (28 May, 19 June)
Miles traveled: ~1150
Best day: 28 May (landspout fest and simultaneous long-lived landspouts that I attempted to drive between)

Despite all that, the highlight of chasing in 2018 for me was running up behind some geezer driving an SUV down 168th Ave on the Weld-Adams County line, and upon passing him realizing it was Ed Grubb, who I had become good friends with in my days chasing with TWISTEX, which is now 8 years past. He turned around and I literally chased him down, pulled up next to him on the two-lane road (in a double-solid yellow) going about 65, and flagged him over. We reconnected in the wake of departing hailers and then spent some time hanging out in the following months. It put a smile on my face to see an old friend!

 

[Jacob Hernandez]

My chase stats

Tornadoes: 2

States chased in: 2 (KS and OK)

Chases: 2 (5/1 and 5/2)

Tornado days: 1 (5/1)

Not much more. Bring on 2019.

 

[Devin Pitts]

Now that I know for sure I won't have any more chases in 2018 this time(lol) I guess I'll finally tally up everything properly:

Total number of chase days: 12
Tornado days: 5
Final tornado count: 17 confirmed tornadoes
States chased: IL, IA, KS, OK, TX
Highlights: 12/1/18, 7/19/18, 5/1/18
Day with the most tornadoes observed: 12/1/18 in Illinois with 7 confirmed tornadoes

Overall this year was very kind to me. Being based out of the Midwest definitely helped this year even with an incredibly abysmal traditional severe season for Illinois, with the one and only tornado watch of the year in central IL being in December of all months.

Here's to hoping 2019 is much kinder to Central and Southern Plains.

 

[John Farley]

I posted previously, but had not tallied my chase statistics. Here they are:

Chase days: 10 - saw supercells on 8 of them, but no tornadoes - my first definite goose egg in that department since 2012. Did see funnels on at least 3 days and multiple gustnadoes on at least 2 days.

Chase mileage - around 5,200, not counting local outings for lightning, thundersnow, local storm photography, etc.

States chased: NM, TX, KS, OK, CO.

Storms I was on that eventually produced tornadoes: 3 (5/1 in KS and 5/21 and 6/3 in NM). But I creatively found ways not to see any of them. All three of those storms were impressive, though. I was on the 5/1 storm in KS when it produced 4-inch hail and spectacular storm structure ner Susank, but left it for the southern storm before it eventually produced Tescott. And the 6/3 NM storm produced the closest and strongest gustnado I have ever encountered, as well as a massive dust storm, copious hail, and some brief funnels. Probably would have seen the tornado southeast of Willard had I not nearly run out of gas by then. ARRGH!

Like I said before, ready for 2019. And now it is only about a day away!

 

[Jeremy Perez]

2018 somehow wound up productive for us on the plains and at home in AZ. We made two trips to the plains April 29–May 3 and May 27–June 3. Once the southwest monsoon got rolling, I worked on the home state chases, finally catching some Arizona landspouts toward the end of the season and into the transition period.

States actively chased: AZ, NM, CO, TX, OK, KS, NE, WY, MT

Chase days: 21 (10 Plains + 11 AZ)

Supercell days: 10 (1CO, 1TX, 1KS, 1OK, 1WY, 1CO, 1MT, 1NE, 1NM, 1AZ)

Photogenic supercell days: 7 (1TX, 1KS, 1OK, 1WY, 1MT, 1 NM, 1AZ)

Attempted tornado chase days: 10

Tornadoes: 11 (5 mesocyclonic + 6 landspout)

Tornado days: 5

• May 1 — Chester/Tescott/Longford, KS (3T)
• May 27 — Cheyenne, WY (2T)
• May 28 — Cope, CO (4T)
• August 18 — Twin Arrows–Winona, AZ (1T)
• October 21 — Two Guns–Meteor Crater, AZ (1T)

Tornado success ratio: 30% (not counting the random AZ landspout days)

Miles chased: 9,412 miles

• 3,306 miles on plains chase #1
• 4,526 miles on plains chase #2
• 1,580 miles in Arizona

Notable Firsts:

• First Wyoming, Colorado, Arizona tornadoes
• First nocturnal tornado
• First landspouts
• First tornadoes with my son

 

[Alex Elmore]

General comments on the season
It is well known that the unfavorable synoptic pattern that dominated nearly the entire year cut down on decent chasing opportunities and tornadoes. However, some of the numbers that are being used to gauge this season may not be as bad as they seem (they’re still pretty bad, though).

Violent Tornadoes: The lack of violent (EF4/5) tornadoes in 2018 may be based partially on that most of the seemingly potentially violent tornadoes occurred in the middle of nowhere with very few, if any, damage indicators. Some of these very well could have produced violent damage. The tornado record also only goes back to 1950, and the first few decades are questionable when it comes to violent tornadoes. There could have been years prior where this lack of violent tornadoes happened.

Watches: The relatively low number of watches, both severe and tornado, can also be possibly attributed to factors such as improvements to the forecast process. A possible better watch-based stat would be the percentage of verified watches by year.

Again, the low values for these measures are still strongly dependent on the lack of severe activity.

Comments on my season
This year was “meh” for me, as the storms I was able chase, while pretty, lacked punch. Being from the Midwest and usually having scheduling and financial restrictions that prevent me from chasing when I want, I’m used to not seeing any tornadoes, but going a year without seeing one doesn’t hurt any less. This year was a little different, as I had three weeks open for chasing and had the finances to support at least a few expeditions, but mother nature obviously had other plans. I still witnessed some good storms and structure, and I’m content with that. 12/1 in IL will stand out as one of my biggest chasing blunders ever, as I did not see any of the tornadoes that composed the record-breaking outbreak that occurred within a couples hours of where I live. Below are my 2018 stats.

States chased in: IL, MO, NE, KS, CO
Chase days: 8
Miles chased: 2,483
Tornadoes seen: 0

 

[JamesCaruso]

General comments on the season
It is well known that the unfavorable synoptic pattern that dominated nearly the entire year cut down on decent chasing opportunities and tornadoes. However, some of the numbers that are being used to gauge this season may not be as bad as they seem (they’re still pretty bad, though).

....

Watches: The relatively low number of watches, both severe and tornado, can also be possibly attributed to factors such as improvements to the forecast process. A possible better watch-based stat would be the percentage of verified watches by year.

Again, the low values for these measures are still strongly dependent on the lack of severe activity.

...

That is a very insightful observation. However, in light of that I would suggest that the better watch-based stat is actually number of verified watches, instead of percentage. The percentage of verified watches would be just as affected by forecast improvements as would the number of watches - one would expect that percentage to improve over time. But the number of verified watches would provide a more apples-to-apples metric that is not affected as much by forecasting improvement. It would still be affected somewhat though. While it would help smooth out the effect on the trend from more “false alarm” watches in the past, it would not eliminate the effect of “missed” watches, i.e. when something happened but no watch had been issued.

 

[Lucas McIntyre]

Being my second year of even remotely trying to see tornadoes, I have to say the season was a success for me, albeit I only got out to shoot storms locally (Manhattan, KS area) , with the exception of my after work mad dash west just in time to see the Tescott EF3, my first tornado, so I certainly can't complain.

Tornadoes: 1

Chase Days: 7

States: 1, Kansas.

Here's a toast to what was, and a toast for what we can only hope will be a better season in 2019.

 

[Tony Laubach]

It was a transition year for me as I moved from southern Illinois to here in Wichita back in mid-March and while settling into the new job and new life, my chasing was largely restricted to Kansas as part of my new job. Fortunately, the lackluster setups really worked in my favor as I needed the chance to really get settled into the new life here and a lot of chasing would've either hindered all that, or I would've missed a ton of stuff by not getting out. Also being t-boned in mid-May didn't help with things, as it took almost four weeks before I got into a new vehicle thanks to back and forth with insurance (it took over a week before the party at fault sent in their insurance papers).

I missed several of the bigger events here in Kansas, including the screw-up of Tescott and being along the KS/OK border on the day where several decent tornadoes occurred in late May north of Dodge City. Anything out of state was not something I'd say I missed, even as I was near Goodland during the Colorado landspout day.

In all, I did manage three tornadoes, which were all all the ground for what I generously consider a minute between them. Two of those tornadoes were on super low end days where living nearby played a huge role in me salvaging my "seen a tornado every year since 2003" streak. While those naders won't go down in any top 10, I was extremely happy to have them given the year that was presenting itself. I put the Arkansas City print on the wall with the others because it was my first one as a resident of Kansas, and was somewhat photogenic (the most so for me anyway). Largest hail I saw was the day before my crash near Greensburg where I got into 3-inch hail that somehow did NOT take out any windows. Got one several great storms scattered about the spring and summer, so by no means was it quiet in terms of storms, just lack of tornadoes.

It took til October before I crested the 10,000 mile mark on the season, a lot of that due to living here now, but still contributed to my lowest mileage total since the early 2000s. I imagine my new average living here will see that annual total go way down, but still was a measure of how little I got out this year beyond Kansas.

This was not a throw-away season as I was able to get out a lot here in Kansas thanks to my job. But obviously Ma-Nature didn't put on a ton of shows here, and the ones she did I hosed up. My head was in 50,00 other places getting settled, so I wasn't on the top of my game. But I am much more settled, found my rhythm, and hope 2019 perks up a bit for the area. And I'll have saved up some time off come Spring and early summer, so hopefully I will get to play on a few more events back on the high plains this season.

Overall, I give the 2018 season a C+, and that's mostly on me... it would've gone down much higher had I hit one of the bigger Kansas events (I'm a 1 day makes a season kinda guy), but it was my own doing. And limited opportunities presented themselves elsewhere, none of which I didn't/couldn't make. But the + comes from the fact that in a season with limited opportunities, I felt VERY fortunate to have seen what I did and keep my annual streak alive with a brief tornado that did make the wall collection.

 

[kevin-palmer]

2018 was actually the best year of chasing I've had. I'm lucky to be living in Wyoming with easy access to the Northern Plains. The 2 previous years did not have a lot of local activity outside of a couple big days. But in 2018 I ended up chasing almost every week in May and June, all within 6 hours of home. May 10th was a highlight with some incredible structure in western Nebraska, before I got a little closer than I intended to a rain-wrapped tornado. The rest of the month brought some great lightning and post-storm sunsets.

I didn't feel too bad about missing the Laramie tornado since that was such a fluke. But it did hurt missing 5/27 and 5/28 as that could have been back to back days of amazing twisters. Somehow I have yet to chase any storms in Colorado. But June 28th more than made up for any regrets I had. A cyclic supercell on the MT/SD border with ridiculous structure dropped a total of 8 tornadoes. Although I only saw the last 4 from a distance, the season couldn't have ended on a better note. I also finally got enough time lapse footage to finish a film I had been working on: https://vimeo.com/kevinpalmerphotography/upslopeflow

Here's hoping 2019 is a better season for all. But it would be nice to continue the trend of less deadly twisters.

 

[Bobby Little]

Newly retired with decent amount of flexibility (much more for 2019) I saved tons of gas/motel money by not chasing 2018. Driving from mid-Michigan, setups either didnt work out at the time or i chose not to chase (smart choice).
That said, i will be out in 2019 chasing, hitting a few concerts, baseball games, drinking beer, eating burgers/food from the suggestions of fellow Stormtrackers from the earlier forums disscussions, and exploring during set up weeks.
Good luck to all in 2019..hope to meet a few fellow chasers this year.

 

[Nikola Pavlovic]

2018. was pretty dreadful for me in terms of chase days. Here are my stats:

Chase days: 6 (the worst)
Mileage: 6248 (the worst)

Although number of tornadoes and tornado days are about average, this year was very bad, partly due to my job (i would chase 6/28 in my favorite part of SD and MT for sure, and 12/1 in my home state of IL), partly because of lack of events. What i miss are structure chases and structure photos.

Grumpy cat Iowa was my best state for tornadoes this year, as my experience grows i can fight with this unpredictable state better

 

[Clarence Bennett]

2018 was terrible for me. I only had a couple of days worth mentioning: Chased a storm near home in Nashville (I think February) and saw a tornado that resulted in a fatality on the TN/KY state line and then in March down in Alabama which resulted in two birdfart tornadoes near Russellville and then monster hail in Cullman. I spent the last week of May and first week of June in Austin, Tx relaxing and cycling.