Record Cold Outbreak On/About Jan. 20, 2008?

[HAltschule]

If the 18z GFS 384 Hour Model run is close to being accurate, we could be looking at some record breaking arctic air for much of the northern half of the United States. 850 Temperatures in Northern Minnesota are forecast to max out a -36 degrees Celsius. This would likely relate to surface temperatures not exceeding the -20's F (or even -20 to -30 F) for highs.

If this does pan out, Florida will be in really big trouble with a deep freeze and this weeks cold weather with be something they wish they had.

Will watch and wait to see if the models are consistent with this or if it will do the flip-flop thing.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Pretty MASSIVE difference between just the 18z and 12z runs.....fwiw.

12z run(the one with upper air soundings) thought +3c here with a southwesterly fetch at 850mb(384hr).

18z run thinks -24c and nw winds at 850mb(372hr). What's 27c though.

I can't believe I just compared a 12z and 18z run for something that far out, lol.

I was wondering this earlier....how the hell can the off hour runs be sooooooooooooo much different sometimes? Hell all one has to do is look at the 12z and 18z for only 84 hours out and see some big differences.

 

[rdale]

That just tells you how much the 'butterfly in Brazil' is messing with things...

Whenever you see that sort of change, you completely ignore the output.

Or post it on StormTrack :>

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

Fwiw also, the GFS loooooooves bringing arctic outbreaks into the future well in advance, but then we'll only end up seeing seasonal temps. I wouldn't believe it until it's there consistently and less than a week out. If one watches the gfs close enough that far out they'll see many cold outbreaks come and go. Not saying it won't happen, but I'm hard pressed to believe anything like that is likely based on that one run. As Mike has already said, the outbreak isn't even on the latest run anymore.

 

[Craig Maire II]

BRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR!

I'm really hoping that this potential record cold outbreak doesn't occur because first off I have just gotten over a serious cold and 2nd I hate having to start my car at 3:30am when the temp is below zero!

 

[rdale]

The GFS says it the below zero readings won't hit til 4am so you're safe :>

 

[Craig Maire II]

Rdale wrote: "The GFS says it the below zero readings won't hit til 4am so you're safe :>"

I'll be able to sleep better tonight knowing this Rdale lol

 

[HAltschule]

There must have been a couple of extra butterflies flying in Brazil yesterday. This mornings models show no sign of an outbreak then whatsoever...except about 3000 miles further north..where it's not really record cold for that area. Will keep a watch on the models for fun because sometimes they tend to pick up on the old regime again. At least I got my chuckle of the day thanks to the GFS>

 

[Mark Sudduth]

Ah- the GFS- try it with hurricanes! Just look at Dean from 2007 as an example. One run, North Carolina landfall. Next run, Texas. Next run, New England. Next, miss well east. But what is fascinating, perhaps, is that the GFS at about the 7-8 day range nailed Dean without much deviation at all. It was an incredible sequence of runs that showed the same thing over and over again- and it happened. But- until then, when Dean was still 10+ days away, it showed all sorts of possible landfall locations.

The phantom hurricanes that the GFS spins up during the season are awesome too. Still, it is entertaining to go look at what a numerical computer model "thinks" the map will look like 384 hours out in to the future.

I for one hope this cold air stays locked up and never comes down here- but if it does, then please let it snow! We have not had snow in the SE NC region in almost 4 years- and yet it snowed almost 2 times a year when I was a kid growing up here. Hmm, what could have caused the drop in annual snow?

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Well the last few runs have really been hinting at that nasty cold. Looking more and more likely to happen. Starting around 144hr onward the gfs through 384hr just looks nasty. Wave after wave of artic air moving south. At least if it does happen it's not March or April.

 

[HAltschule]

I just noticed this too. The GFS has come back around to the very arctic cold solutions that would keep maximum temperatures in the -10's to -20's across much of the northern half of the country. 468 Thickness values cloise to the US border...C'mon...that's painful just to think about. What's interesting is that the GFS keeps this large pattern shift and arctic blast in place for many days at least.

 

[Derek Weston]

Good grief, the current 180hr is just disgusting for next Thursday.(UTC 00 Fri) Highs of -20, -25 up into Western Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota. Down into Iowa with highs in the negative teens.

 

[David Wolfson]

Noteworthy that the progged major cold wave has moderated. We're flying out of RST Sunday with a vested (parka'd?) interest. -20F or worse is now looking like -10F. It's a crisp but not outrageous 0F as I write this. Except for the North Slope, Alaska is warmer.

The omega block/Gulf of Alaska ridge seems to be an increasingly common feature in recent years heading into the spring, with few of the 1050Mb+ cold pools accumulating and pouring out of the arctic. I'm interested to see how the "ice road truckers" fare this season. I have the impression it's been relatively warm up that way.

... Just found this picture of massive ice crack-up in Beaufort Sea:
http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/content_contenu/SIE/Beaufort/n18_09jan08_1253Z_annotation.jpg

... and check out this loop to date: http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/content_contenu/SIE/Beaufort/ANIM-BE2007.gif

That is a January 9th picture and is not normal. I guess we'll see in a few months how much Arctic Ocean ice survives this summer. This does not look real good, folks.

 

[John Farley]

There were already a couple record lows in New Mexico this morning (Jan. 17), including -9 at Las Vegas and -13 at Taos (I think that was the other record low; Channel 4 reported there were two.) Even colder temperatures, though not necessarily records, occurred in the high valleys of northern NM and southern CO, including -32 at Alamosa, CO and -23 at Angel Fire, NM. So there is some cold air around!

 

[John Hudson]

We're well aware of the cold outbreak north of the 49th. For tonight:

City of Winnipeg
3:18 PM CST Friday 18 January 2008
Wind chill warning for
City of Winnipeg continued

Extreme wind chills continuing.

This is a warning that extreme wind chill conditions are imminent or occurring in these regions. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.



An Arctic high pressure ridge building into Saskatchewan is creating a cold northwesterly flow over Manitoba. Wind chills this morning were generally in the minus 40 to minus 45 range, and only moderated slightly during the day. Wind chills are expected to be minus 40 or colder once again tonight through Saturday morning, and possibly again Saturday night. An exception to this is southwestern Manitoba where winds are expected to diminish to light by Saturday morning, ending the extreme wind chills there.


Well, at least real estate is cheap here. And anyone has to wonder why?

John