Potential Derecho???

[Chase K]

It is a little far out but the models are looking good for a big wind event from the Dakotas up into the Canadian prairies. This model is for central South Dakota. Thoughts?

 

[rdale]

A couple of notes...

1) That lat/long seems to plot near Fargo ND, not central SD.
2) That's a 246 single model forecast. Never ever ever take a single point single sounding from a 246 hour model.
3) Repeat after me - never ever ever look at a 246-hr single point single model sounding.
4) Never predict a potential derecho at 246 hours.
5) Use ensembles when looking at 246 hours.
6) But still don't take a single point sounding at 246 hours.

 

[Chase K]

Thanks for the advice rdale. It is much appreciated. I am 14 years old and still a beginner. I will work on it