Nowcasting with the Short Fuse Composite

[James Hammett]

Anyone still using the short fuse composite graphics for nowcasting initiation when chasing? Here's an example from DDC:

https://www.weather.gov/ddc/shortfuse

I used those graphics a lot in the mid to late 00's but just realized I haven't at all for the past couple of seasons. With all the hi-rez convective model runs available and with some of the short fuse graphics broken/unavailable now I've moved on. Anyone still finding value in them?

 

[rdale]

SPC's short fuse graphics are probably a better choice since they are national/regional.

 

[James Hammett]

No doubt and I use SPC mesoanalysis every chase. In fact I've written a custom "chase day" viewer for their graphics that I'd like to open source when I get time. But the graphics & overlays aren't specifically tuned for identifying the short-fuse "threat area" criteria though. Graphics aside the question is more about whether the short-fuse criteria is still valuable in this age of rapid refresh/high resolution CAMs.

 

[Bill Hark]

I never really used those products as I am already in data overload. I may revisit them.

 

[Jeff Duda]

I knew about them when I was getting into chasing back in the 2007-2008 timeframe, but I never ended up using them for whatever reason. I think it was partially the preference for surface obs and visible satellite over the short fuse products followed by the realization that those products couldn't really be much better than a RUC or SPC mesoanalysis given the data that had to go into them to create them. I don't think there was ever anything special about the short fuse composites - they were just zoomed in versions of RUC analyses, perhaps with an extra sfc ob or two assimilated, and with other fields plotted that you wouldn't normally see. However, I think it's been shown that no single composite index exists that predicts everything chasers need to successfullly see supercells and tornadoes, so none of those added composite fields really added much value, at least, IMO.

 

[James Hammett]

Over time I've condensed the multi-point short-fuse criteria into biasing toward the nose of a steep low-level lapse rate punching into the moist axis for initiation. But I just use the mesoanalysis graphics for that.