• After witnessing the continued decrease of involvement in the SpotterNetwork staff in serving SN members with troubleshooting issues recently, I have unilaterally decided to terminate the relationship between SpotterNetwork's support and Stormtrack. I have witnessed multiple users unable to receive support weeks after initiating help threads on the forum. I find this lack of response from SpotterNetwork officials disappointing and a failure to hold up their end of the agreement that was made years ago, before I took over management of this site. In my opinion, having Stormtrack users sit and wait for so long to receive help on SpotterNetwork issues on the Stormtrack forums reflects poorly not only on SpotterNetwork, but on Stormtrack and (by association) me as well. Since the issue has not been satisfactorily addressed, I no longer wish for the Stormtrack forum to be associated with SpotterNetwork.

    I apologize to those who continue to have issues with the service and continue to see their issues left unaddressed. Please understand that the connection between ST and SN was put in place long before I had any say over it. But now that I am the "captain of this ship," it is within my right (nay, duty) to make adjustments as I see necessary. Ending this relationship is such an adjustment.

    For those who continue to need help, I recommend navigating a web browswer to SpotterNetwork's About page, and seeking the individuals listed on that page for all further inquiries about SpotterNetwork.

    From this moment forward, the SpotterNetwork sub-forum has been hidden/deleted and there will be no assurance that any SpotterNetwork issues brought up in any of Stormtrack's other sub-forums will be addressed. Do not rely on Stormtrack for help with SpotterNetwork issues.

    Sincerely, Jeff D.

North Central Plains Snow (Feb 19-20)

  • Thread starter Thread starter RMacDonald
  • Start date Start date

RMacDonald

Looking at the latest runs 04Z of my Smartmodel, seeing some good snow amounts up in the North Central Plains. Duluth is projecting around 10", Rockford, IL about 4.5", and Chicago area around 2". Going to try to add some sites in SD as they look primed.
 
Just released out 00Z Smartmodel run, looking at some serious snowfall accumulations from Pontiac, MI to Grand Rapids, MI possible 15" snowfall. Also Detroit could possibly be in for a major ice storm, looking at 5" of snow then potential for .6" of ice. Thoughts?
 
Looking at the output for KGRR, from the 20th at 19Z to 21st at 00Z showing Heavy Snow with 1.2 to 1.8" snow rates per hour. Then another bout of precip from the 7z-11Z with .9 to 1.1" snow rates per hour. The 15" is for a 48 hour period. I did see some periods of sleet and FZRA, that might bring the total down, but need 4 more runs before my program will take those into account.
 
I was looking more for the upper-air causes / tracks / etc. as it doesn't do much good if you just look at surface outputs.
 
Perhaps it's attempting to resolve convection? Looking at BUFKIT soundings across the area, there's quite a bit of elevated instability on the cold side. I have been noticing that the ZR threat seems to be backing off here near DTX, with more in the way of sleet. It will be interesting to see how the baroclinic zone sets up, somebody might be in store for a major ice storm.
 
It is also trying to adjust for the snowfall ratio's. Just pushed another run as of 06Z, still holding the same amounts for the GRR area. I guess i will either be on the money or way off base. I do have have it take some variables from the 850/700mb levels, dont incorporates as much upper air as I would like too though. Any thoughts on snowfall potentials. I also noticed that GRR has backed off the FZ precip now and how sn and -pl.
 
Just pushed out another SmartModel run, zoning in on the MI area. Still seeing high amounts of snow accumulation possible, still showing GRR and Pontiac with 12"+ of snowfall expected. Any thoughts and inputs on this.
 
Seems a bit unusual that the NAM is actually colder than the GFS. 12z GFS brings quite a bit of ZR (0.5-0.7 inches) into the DTX area. WRF runs are warmer too. 9z SREF keeps me right on the 50% probability for <=0C through south-central lower MI, so there's still some decent uncertainty. Mean precip type shows ZR with some sleet mixed in, but not much in the way of snow from Flint to Grand Rapids southward.
 
Just pushing out 19Z run, looking at GRR, starting to trend it downard now, looking at 8-9" now. Taking a bit a time but it is starting to hopefully figure things out. Also got Detroit down to 1-3" of snow and .4" of Ice. Thoughts.
 
Rdale, I dont actually have graphical capability, I just have value based upper air data. I can try to extrapolate it using the lowest pressure values at 850MB to find the general path.
 
ust pushed out 00Z SmartModel data. Just some minor changes of overall snowfall forecasts: More details are posted at http://smartwxmodel.net Here are some latest predictions for snow based on my model:

Redwood Falls 18"
Brookings: 16"
Minneapolish, Oshkosh, LaCrosse: 15"
Madison 8" with .6" of FZRA
Milwaukee 12" with .3" of FZRA
 
HRRR brings 5-8 inches north of DTW in a short period of time. Earlier WRF runs (NSSL's run) show a huge amount of QPF, closing in on 2 inches within a narrow band just north of the 850mb 0C isotherm. The radar simulation has a strong convective appearance along this area, with a high "lightning threat" parameter, and 50-60% probability of convective initiation. In fact, MUCAPE even approaches 200j/kg.

I'm right along the SN/IP/ZR line near DTX. Definitely a sensitive forecast.
 
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