Name That Target - Round II

Anyone up for another round?

1. This day resulted in a possible well-known event, or a possible well-known bust.

2. The possible target(s) for this day may have been in the plains, or may have been deeper in the Midwest.

3. This event/non-event may have occurred during 2005, or it may have occurred during another year.

We'll start with just three basic maps - which have enough information to give you some idea of where to start. Forecast times are noted on the maps, so you should be able to figure out time frames here. More clues will be given later, as I have time to post.

The first person who comes up with either a target that produced a tornado, or the conclusion that the day was a bust have first option at running the next round if they want.

Start naming your targets:

500mb -

500mb.gif


CAPE -

CAPE.gif


Bndry - 6km Shear -

BndLyr-6kmshear.gif


Hopefully I don't screw this up too bad ... it's definitely not as easy as it looks.
 
Well, so far it looks like we have a choice between the high CAPE along the OK/TX border area or the stronger deep-layer shear in Minnesota. I personally would probably choose the Minnesota target just for proximity.
 
Well, not a whole bunch you can go on my those maps... But... This surely looks to be a summer day, given the very broad high SBCAPE across the country. The first place I'd look at would be southern MN, given the strong westerly mid-level flow (which has contributed to the strong BL-6km shear) and modest SB instability (AOA 2000 j/kg). In this case, I'd pick a target area near Mankato, MN.
 
[God, I love these compared to what I'm slogging through at work. Thanks, Mike!]

Ah, a puzzle.... You woke up and were starting to accumulate 18Z data, when your only computer access vanished, and you were left with three various prog charts. :)

Waal, I'd head for the east-central KS-NE border -- I'll say, Steele City, KS. The CAPE plot suggests that a surface low will be just west of there and reflected at 500Mb with a negative tilt trough line and hint of a speed max. 0-6 shear is good for tornadic supercells without being too crazy, like in MN.
 
I would definitely play the dryline bulge in S Kansas. Although the wind speed at 500mb is a little weak, it is enough to support tornadic storms esp. with the high cape environment. The weaker sheer will also lead to slower storm movements. I would really like to see some charts at 850 and 700mb to check the cap strength and wind speeds at those levels. Just by looking at the cape map, I have a fairly good idea what the surface chart looks like.
 
From the provided data, Minnesota looks like the "obvious" target, but like David, I suspect there's more going on at the surface in NE KS / SE NE than meets the eye. I like the instability there, and while the flow isn't overly impressive, it's better than nothing... especially given the apparent surface low. I'd probably go to Beatrice, NE, and hope for an isolated storm to go up along a favorable surface boundary.
 
Way to go Mike! I’m glad to see this keep going.

Like the others I’m drawn to that dryline bulge. But without any additional information, I’d have to play it safe and take a ride down to Salina for more data. Salina would give great road options in all directions.
 
Not much to go by there for me personally. I'm heading to Salina, KS.
 
It's just as much fun to watch you guys reason through this as it is to play ... some nice reasoning going on.

Whew ... finally the computer is working a little better and is spitting out data in bits and pieces. Finally managed to grab a 4-panel map that should help ...

4panel.gif
 
AAAAAHHHH! Now the computer only gets Unisys inkblots -- torture! :lol:

Well, I still like where I'm at (Steele City, KS). Initiation may happen a bit southwest, but I'd like to be ahead of it because it's a crapshoot where the upper forcing (little wave at 300Mb) will start the show. The 850 suggests the low-level jet is nosing up just to my east.
 
Appears to be adequate surface heating in central KS ahead of the bulge, and southerly flow bringing GoM moisture up to the surface low. I think for now I’d sit tight in Salina, but I may point the nose of my truck N towards Concordia.
 
Hmmmmm.....I might have figured it out. I'm heading to Mulvane Kansas. :) ?
 
I'm not overly enthusiastic about the progged surface flow vectors as it looks like the area of my interest (N Kansas) is veering to SW ever so slightly, but I'd try to find a spot east or northeast of the surface low in northern Kansas and assume there will be some S or SSE flow in the region somewhere. I like the Clay Center area just east of 81/135 the best.
 
I think Beatrice remains a good target for supercells, but SC Kansas is looking very interesting, weak flow aside. So, I'll shift myself ahead of the dryline bulge as well, but SE of the surface low, within that little finger of higher CAPE and good lift extending from N OK.

I still suspect the real story is in the surface plot, but for now I'll hang my hat on Wichita.

EDIT: Looks like Mike and I are on the same wavelength. :D
 
I'm a monkey's uncle if it isn't June 12, 04 Mulvane, lol. And I have not spoken with MikeP.
 
I like Hollingshead's thinking. If I am correct I played too far north that day and busted. I am heading to Wichita right now but may end up somewhere just a little bit SW of there. ;) That day was a tricky forecast. All of you further north had better get south on 135 quickly.
 
Thank goodness I got enough from the SPC site to help me figure this forecast out ...

MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IS BECOMING MORE FOCUSED ACROSS THIS REGION AT THIS TIME. PRESSURE FALLS ARE MORE CONCENTRATED IN AN AREA BOUNDED BY XXX-XXX-XXX-XXX AND SURFACE WINDS ARE BACKING ACROSS XXX DEVELOPING INFLOW TOWARDS THE LOW
XXX of XXX AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST AND BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE WITH SFC DEW POINTS UPR 60S TO LOW 70S...AND DAYTIME HEATING RAISING SBCAPE TO BETWEEN 4500-5500 J/KG /MLCAPE 2500-3500 J/KG/. 18Z RAOB DATA SHOWS CAPE JUST UNDER 4500 J/KG AT TOP WITH A MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE OF 9C/KM. WHILE SHEAR HAS YET TO RESPOND TO APPROACHING TROUGH...RUC MODEL FORECASTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40 KT BY 13/00Z FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES NEAR THE SW-NE BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE ACROSS
THE AREA BY THAT TIME. ALSO...CONSIDERING THE LARGE CAPE/VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES...THE THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION.

DRYLINE IS MOVING SLOWLY EWD EXTENDING FROM THE LOW BETWEEN XXX/XXX THROUGH XXX AND XXX INTO XXX. ADDITIONAL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE AS MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENHANCES UVVS BY EVENING. STEEP LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KT INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL STORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
 
OK ... time to relieve the suspense ...

If you came with me on this day, you would have seen this:

5-12%20Storm0044.JPG


Kinda cool yes ... BUT if you had gone with Eric Nguyen (and lots of others), you would have seen this:

040612-15.jpg



Definitely a tricky forecast day ... the most INTERESTING thing about this discussion today is that it was an almost IDENTICAL replica of the reasoning that chasers employed to arrive at their targets on June 12, 2004.

I'd say that Mike gets it first for naming the specific target, though the earlier calls of the dryline bulge and Salina were also close enough that it's tough to call. Mike can have the choice of either doing the next contest or delegating it to someone else - - -

Thanks for playing -
 
Well, I know this is moot and after-the-fact,

But before I got sidetracked onto work today (at work - shock horror!), I read some of this thread and positioned myself at 9am in Salina OR Concordia KS sipping a Cappuccino and watching data.

Who knows whether I would have made it or not........but it's sure a better starting point that then REAL one we had this day!!!! :lol:

KR
 
Nick can have it if he wants or someone else.

*Most* chasers this day were up in se NE I believe. I saw tons of them including several vets(Hoadley, Marshall, Gold, DOWs......). I believe Piotrwoski was up here as well but got some of the later Mulvane action(likely due to leaving the early crapfest that got going in se NE and heading in the direction towards home). The northern target in se NE got hosed because of early convection leaving a rather strong outflow boundary in the area. Stuff fired on this boundary far too early and had trouble being undercut by it(north side of it was quite cold and never got a chance to heat up any).

Edit: Maybe I didn't see Marshall(according to KERs post/account). I saw him late June 10th on I-80 going east and then again near Ft. Dodge at a gas station the next day(11th). I swore I saw his truck in the mix the 12th too but perhaps not.
 
Nick can have it if he wants or someone else.

*Most* chasers this day were up in se NE I believe. I saw tons of them including several vets(Hoadley, Marshal, Gold, DOWs......). I believe Piotrwoski was up here as well but got some of the later Mulvane action(likely due to leaving the early crapfest that got going in se NE and heading in the direction towards home). The northern target in se NE got hosed because of early convection leaving a rather strong outflow boundary in the area. Stuff fired on this boundary far too early and had trouble being undercut by it(north side of it was quite cold and never got a chance to heat up any).

:lol: LOL... Sure, I'll make a new thread when I get off work in a few hours.
 
Ah, June 12th. Good case. No wonder northern Kansas looked so tempting... it was!... until the outflow boundary of death raced south out of Nebraska and killed the sharp convection that had begun to develop.
 
I would have said KS as well...

When I see a very tight CAPE gradient like that with a shortwave trough rotating through, that's usually a good bet. Also, I would assume the mid level thermal axis would be just east of the area, so a weakening CAP would be present versus a strengthening CAP over SE NE...
 
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