Name That Target - Round II

[Mike Peregrine]

Anyone up for another round?

1. This day resulted in a possible well-known event, or a possible well-known bust.

2. The possible target(s) for this day may have been in the plains, or may have been deeper in the Midwest.

3. This event/non-event may have occurred during 2005, or it may have occurred during another year.

We'll start with just three basic maps - which have enough information to give you some idea of where to start. Forecast times are noted on the maps, so you should be able to figure out time frames here. More clues will be given later, as I have time to post.

The first person who comes up with either a target that produced a tornado, or the conclusion that the day was a bust have first option at running the next round if they want.

Start naming your targets:

500mb -

CAPE -

Bndry - 6km Shear -

Hopefully I don't screw this up too bad ... it's definitely not as easy as it looks.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Well, so far it looks like we have a choice between the high CAPE along the OK/TX border area or the stronger deep-layer shear in Minnesota. I personally would probably choose the Minnesota target just for proximity.

 

[nickgrillo]

Well, not a whole bunch you can go on my those maps... But... This surely looks to be a summer day, given the very broad high SBCAPE across the country. The first place I'd look at would be southern MN, given the strong westerly mid-level flow (which has contributed to the strong BL-6km shear) and modest SB instability (AOA 2000 j/kg). In this case, I'd pick a target area near Mankato, MN.

 

[David Wolfson]

[God, I love these compared to what I'm slogging through at work. Thanks, Mike!]

Ah, a puzzle.... You woke up and were starting to accumulate 18Z data, when your only computer access vanished, and you were left with three various prog charts.

Waal, I'd head for the east-central KS-NE border -- I'll say, Steele City, KS. The CAPE plot suggests that a surface low will be just west of there and reflected at 500Mb with a negative tilt trough line and hint of a speed max. 0-6 shear is good for tornadic supercells without being too crazy, like in MN.

 

[Joseph Tyree]

I would definitely play the dryline bulge in S Kansas. Although the wind speed at 500mb is a little weak, it is enough to support tornadic storms esp. with the high cape environment. The weaker sheer will also lead to slower storm movements. I would really like to see some charts at 850 and 700mb to check the cap strength and wind speeds at those levels. Just by looking at the cape map, I have a fairly good idea what the surface chart looks like.

 

[Jeff Lawson]

From the provided data, Minnesota looks like the "obvious" target, but like David, I suspect there's more going on at the surface in NE KS / SE NE than meets the eye. I like the instability there, and while the flow isn't overly impressive, it's better than nothing... especially given the apparent surface low. I'd probably go to Beatrice, NE, and hope for an isolated storm to go up along a favorable surface boundary.

 

[Kurt Silvey]

Way to go Mike! I’m glad to see this keep going.

Like the others I’m drawn to that dryline bulge. But without any additional information, I’d have to play it safe and take a ride down to Salina for more data. Salina would give great road options in all directions.

 

[Shane Adams]

Not much to go by there for me personally. I'm heading to Salina, KS.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

It's just as much fun to watch you guys reason through this as it is to play ... some nice reasoning going on.

Whew ... finally the computer is working a little better and is spitting out data in bits and pieces. Finally managed to grab a 4-panel map that should help ...

 

[David Wolfson]

AAAAAHHHH! Now the computer only gets Unisys inkblots -- torture! :lol:

Well, I still like where I'm at (Steele City, KS). Initiation may happen a bit southwest, but I'd like to be ahead of it because it's a crapshoot where the upper forcing (little wave at 300Mb) will start the show. The 850 suggests the low-level jet is nosing up just to my east.

 

[Kurt Silvey]

Appears to be adequate surface heating in central KS ahead of the bulge, and southerly flow bringing GoM moisture up to the surface low. I think for now I’d sit tight in Salina, but I may point the nose of my truck N towards Concordia.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Hmmmmm.....I might have figured it out. I'm heading to Mulvane Kansas. ?

 

[James McCormick]

I'm not overly enthusiastic about the progged surface flow vectors as it looks like the area of my interest (N Kansas) is veering to SW ever so slightly, but I'd try to find a spot east or northeast of the surface low in northern Kansas and assume there will be some S or SSE flow in the region somewhere. I like the Clay Center area just east of 81/135 the best.

 

[Jeff Lawson]

I think Beatrice remains a good target for supercells, but SC Kansas is looking very interesting, weak flow aside. So, I'll shift myself ahead of the dryline bulge as well, but SE of the surface low, within that little finger of higher CAPE and good lift extending from N OK.

I still suspect the real story is in the surface plot, but for now I'll hang my hat on Wichita.

EDIT: Looks like Mike and I are on the same wavelength.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

I'm a monkey's uncle if it isn't June 12, 04 Mulvane, lol. And I have not spoken with MikeP.