My look at tomorrow afternoon's potential severe weather

[NickSeyour]

I wanted to post this in the forecasts and nowcasts section but it would'nt let me so whatever I'll post it here.


Despite a near perfect forecast for the New England I am getting more and more visitors from outside the six states and in that area some concerns arise. We’ll be watching the severe weather potential Friday afternoon for parts of the south central US. Cool dry air from New Mexico and Mexico will collide with warm and wet air from the Gulf of Mexico. This will set up a battle zone which so often in turn means severe weather will erupt. What put’s a burr in my bonnet however, is that the dew points will be relatively low in the 60’s. This usually would not fuel severe weather and ruin a potential outbreak. On the other hand we just had a severe outbreak in North Carolina with dew points in the 50’s. So who knows … maybe this season the norm will be for low dew point severe wx outbreaks?


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[Skip Talbot]

I wanted to post this in the forecasts and nowcasts section but it would'nt let me so whatever I'll post it here.

Welcome to Stormtrack, Nick. in order for new users to familiarize themselves with the rules in the Target Area, there is a thirty day waiting period before members are allowed to post in there. New users are encouraged to post in the Educational forum in the mean time.

What put’s a burr in my bonnet however, is that the dew points will be relatively low in the 60’s. This usually would not fuel severe weather and ruin a potential outbreak. On the other hand we just had a severe outbreak in North Carolina with dew points in the 50’s. So who knows … maybe this season the norm will be for low dew point severe wx outbreaks?

The minimum dew point temperature for severe weather really depends on the time of year and the location. Early season setups often have colder air aloft and do not need as high of dew points in order to destabilize the atmosphere. By late June in the southern plains, I would agree, however, that 60 degree dew points would be a little sparse on the moisture. Dew points also do not need to be as high in the higher elevationis. Mid 50's dewpoints are all you need for monster supercells and tornadoes up in the panhandles and eastern Colorado. For Spring warm sector setups in the Plains and the Midwest I'm generally looking for at least 60 degree dew points, but again it depends on the overall setup, the temperatures aloft, and the surface temperature/dew point depression.

 

[NickSeyour]

My response

Welcome to Stormtrack, Nick. in order for new users to familiarize themselves with the rules in the Target Area, there is a thirty day waiting period before members are allowed to post in there. New users are encouraged to post in the Educational forum in the mean time.




The minimum dew point temperature for severe weather really depends on the time of year and the location. Early season setups often have colder air aloft and do not need as high of dew points in order to destabilize the atmosphere. By late June in the southern plains, I would agree, however, that 60 degree dew points would be a little sparse on the moisture. Dew points also do not need to be as high in the higher elevationis. Mid 50's dewpoints are all you need for monster supercells and tornadoes up in the panhandles and eastern Colorado. For Spring warm sector setups in the Plains and the Midwest I'm generally looking for at least 60 degree dew points, but again it depends on the overall setup, the temperatures aloft, and the surface temperature/dew point depression.

Dude thanks a lot I'm new to stormtrack but I love this ever active community of weather weenies and meteorologists. I'll try to post in the educational section and become as helpful as I can on this brand new site which I love