Mar 30 (Next Thur) Possible Event?

[Mikey Gribble]

I am actually more excited about Wednesday than I am about Thursday. I am not a fan of closed lows and I really like the directional shear on Wednesday before the low closes off. It looks like there will be a nice fetch of moisture off the Gulf, but I am always worried about moisture at this time of year. After last years surplus of cold core tornadoes, it would certainly make a tempting target, but my track record with cold core chases is not good so I would probably play the dryline further South on Thursday if the GFS were to verify. A lot could change between now and then, but I am fairly certain we will end up getting at least one good chase day out of this system.

 

[Kevin Bowman]

The effects of the drought continue....another potential dryline setup waaaay too far east from normal, because the DL will push east untl it hits the moisture, and that place has been well east of the Plains all season. The MS valley area has not been in a drought like the Plains have. Some disagree, but I keep seeing things that are indicating this drought is really screwing with the Plains chase season. It's 23 degrees here this morning. Be a helluva recovery in the next five/six days to get chaseable weather around here. And I don't mean cold core.
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recovery is more than possible in that time span, in the March 12th outbreak, Chicago spent all day in the upper 30's, the warm front passed and it shot up to the mid 60's.