Mar 30 (Next Thur) Possible Event?

[Alex Lamers]

I'm very interested. Models generally eject a negatively tilted shortwave out of the west, a potent one at that, and drive warm air extremely far north. With proper moisture transport I think this could be one of our first true North-South good looking Spring storm systems. IMO GFS ensembles are overdeepening this...closing the low off (12 utc run). Regardless there should be at least a decent piece of energy to focus convection. Anyone else watching this as a possible chase day?

 

[Chris Wilburn]

I'm very interested. Models generally eject a negatively tilted shortwave out of the west, a potent one at that, and drive warm air extremely far north. With proper moisture transport I think this could be one of our first true North-South good looking Spring storm systems. IMO GFS ensembles are overdeepening this...closing the low off (12 utc run). Regardless there should be at least a decent piece of energy to focus convection. Anyone else watching this as a possible chase day?
[/b]

Just noticed myself as well Alex. I will take a little bit more time to analyze it later, but as of now you cant help but at least be encouraged. Good moisture return and a strong negatively tilted shortwave gives us something to work with. Still a week out but worth watching for sure.

Chris

 

[Anthony Silver]

I've also had my eyes on the next system....and yes, it does look somewhat promising. Given that the models are still 180+ hours out, I wouldn't get overly excited about it just yet. At this point, the setup looks a lot like March 12th all over again.

 

[Bob Schafer]

March 30, possibly yes along the Mississippi Valley, but keep an eye west of there for March 29, too.

 

[Chris Lott]

Anybody looking at the W. Texas panhandle and W. Oklahoma when this event( if it happens) starts to unfold? It appears right now the GFS is painting a pretty picture in that area for next week.

 

[samuel stone]

ICT already hints towards possible severe in the wednesday-thursday time frame. Could be premature but it gives some hope to the situation.

 

[Brian Stertz]

ICT already hints towards possible severe in the wednesday-thursday time frame. Could be premature but it gives some hope to the situation.
[/b]

By the looks of the 00z GFS...it could be one heck of a "cold core" setup Thursday 3/30 across C.Kansas, and maybe some tough dryline tornadic storms across E.Kansas, W.Missouri, E.Oklahoma, and W.Arkansas. Things definitely screaming get ready for one last good chase in the month of March.

 

[Shane Adams]

and maybe some tough dryline tornadic storms across E.Kansas, W.Missouri, E.Oklahoma, and W.Arkansas.
[/b]

The effects of the drought continue....another potential dryline setup waaaay too far east from normal, because the DL will push east untl it hits the moisture, and that place has been well east of the Plains all season. The MS valley area has not been in a drought like the Plains have. Some disagree, but I keep seeing things that are indicating this drought is really screwing with the Plains chase season. It's 23 degrees here this morning. Be a helluva recovery in the next five/six days to get chaseable weather around here. And I don't mean cold core.

 

[Gabe Garfield]

Be a helluva recovery in the next five/six days to get chaseable weather around here. And I don't mean cold core.
[/b]

After last Monday, I have no problem with cold core! LOL It produces very nice tornadoes (even though brief), and it sure beats the heck out of seeing nothing on the dryline.

As far as next week's potential, moisture is looking slightly better on this morning's run than it was on yesterday's runs. However, as we've seen before, mositure has been way overdone this far out. Wind fields look alright, though the timing could use improvement (best shear over warm sector from Wed. into Thurs.). Even so, it is a long ways out, so I'm hoping for some improvement in a few categories.

Gabe

 

[Andy Wehrle]

The last few GFS runs have put a smile on my face, too, because at the very least it looks like a return to a spring pattern. I thought we were done with this blocking pattern/eastern polar vortex/Midwest-Plains ridge crap after the southwest flow pattern set up in early-mid March (9-12 especially).

Which reminds me-Hey Shane-it's called 'It's March'. I wouldn't give up the ship before its left port-people seemed eager to write off the 2004 chase season prior to May 22 (or to a lesser extent May 12) and the 2005 season prior to the first two weeks in June. Hang in there.

 

[Joel Wright]

Well, there's a good chance at an outbreak during this time frame because I will be moving and unable to chase, or even put much thought into the storm at all.

I don't know how this storm will compare to March 12th, but that thing had a LOT of stuff going for it. Everything came together perfectly for that storm. I'd be very surprised to see anything come close to that magnitude until well into April. This time of year I'm always worried about moisture return. The March 12th storm was loaded. This one will likely have much less to work with. I hope I'm wrong, but that's sort of what I'm expecting.

The March 12th storm had the benefit of previous storm systems tapping lots of gulf moisture northward, not to be swept away until the main storm (March 12th) came out and swept it all away.

 

[Jay McCoy]

Shane dont give up the dryline yet. We have finally started getting moisture here in the panhandle. WE got about 1 1/2 inches over the past weekend plus a 2-4 inch snow across the panhandle wednesday so moisture is being put in so we can have a fighting chance at a dryline west of us. Hell even Norman got wet over the weekend so something is changing.

I like wednesday in this area. The GFS hammers west and central Oklahoma then shift its a bit NE into Kansas on Thursday.

 

[Rob Satkus]

The effects of the drought continue....another potential dryline setup waaaay too far east from normal, because the DL will push east untl it hits the moisture,[/b]

Normal as compared to what? I would say there is nothing abnormal about drylines pushing well into eastern Ok, Ar, Mo etc. in these early season situations. Besides, much of Oklahoma had anywhere from 2-6" of rain last week and 1-4" of snow the other day....certainly not a long term drought buster, but a good short term helper. My yard is still muddy and things are getting greener. The system on March 12th had the dryline progged to fly to the east and guess what..it didn't, remaining anchored along I-35 for much of the day. The models tend to go a little overboard on how far east the dryline position ends up being. Now, I'm not forecasting the dryline to hang back to the west with this system mind you..anything can happen of course. I would think any flying dryline for now would owe more to the strength of the jet stream/how fast the system is moving etc.
With this system I am more concerned about the quality of the moist air coming back...these last couple of systems have probably done a good job of trashing the Gulf...would be nice if this next one slowed down a bit, because we are gonna need all the time we can get for quality moisture return.

Rob

 

[mikegeukes]

Next Thursday:
12Z Model runs have the GFS closing the H5 low off over Kansas
and is much stronger, while the ECMWF, NOGAPS,and UKMET
have the next system much further north and weaker.

Right now, GFS seems to be the outlier compare to
the 3 other models, in closing the low off.

Mike
http://chaseseason.blogspot.com/ Your source for wx links.

 

[Bobby Prentice]

With this system I am more concerned about the quality of the moist air coming back...these last couple of systems have probably done a good job of trashing the Gulf...would be nice if this next one slowed down a bit, because we are gonna need all the time we can get for quality moisture return.

Rob
[/b]

The Gulf of Mexico sea surface temperature (SSTs) generally remain 1-2 degrees Celsius above normal for this time of year:

FNMOC: SST-Anamaly

Even with that being said, the quality low-level moisture necessary for severe storms (e.g., supercells) over the Great Plains generally comes from the Carribean Sea, not the Gulf of Mexico. It's important to see parcel trajectories originating from this source region and not just recirculated, modified continental-polar (Cp) air parcels with only brief residence times over the Gulf of Mexico. This airmass can get transported north rather quickly on the low-level jet. Unfortunately, parcel trajectories forecast graphics are not readily available on the internet (that I've ever seen). It must be inferred using surface or 850 mb dewpoint/wind forecast graphics.