Lurkers, Target Area, memberships, and Stormtrack

[Jim Saueressig]

If I remember right the TA used to be hidden from the unregistered public during the "on" season and it cut down of server overloads during events as well? I personally don't post forecasts because at my level of knowledge there is nothing I could say that hasn't been already covered. I do read it to try to get a better understanding on the general thinking in regards to certain scenarios. I have posted reports and contributed to NOW threads however.

I do agree that at least the forecast / now area needs to remain hidden to the general public and I personally believe those ignorant posts that have been happening that have had no purpose to the thread other than for someone to show off and act important needs to stop. I think those people posting that need an immediate removal without warning because the rules of the section were quite clear to begin with.

 

[Jay Bell]

Does anyone have evidence of n00b's reading the forecast thread and converging on a point that they otherwise would not have, and interrupting a chase? That seems to be the big concern, but is it really happening to that level?

I have to ask the same thing. Does anyone have real proof? I think there is enough info available to the masses that ST has less to do with the problem than does the spc itself....not that I am saying they are at fault either. There are a lot of "outlook" chasers out there....but that's how many chasers get started learning to forecast.

Jay Bell

 

[Jason Bolt]

I don't believe we can ever prove there is an influx of n00b chasers showing up at someone's posted target b/c of what they read on ST. No matter the policy adopted chasing has become the new fad for many people. Look at poker and how big it was around 2000. It was the fad at the time. Interest has dropped off considerably. Now we have five different storm chaser TV shows. Public interest is at an all time high. Streaming, Youtube, and Jim Cantore have made this the public phenomenon of 2010. We can't control that.

I would encourage everyone to think globally when considering this issue. When I started lurking on here, even before I got brave enough to register, there were several meteorological geniuses and legends who frequented ST. It looks to me that many legends in our field have left. Why? I can't help but think that with increased public access, an influx of novice chasers who don't want to lurk and learn, and in turn a highly increased noise level in the Target Area many veterans have been driven into silence or simply do not frequent the site at all anymore. I would like to see ST turn back into a chaser driven community. If there is an idea to cut down the noise and nonsense I am all for it.

 

[Jason Bolt]

Ok here I go spewing posts instead of shutting up and reading like I should.

I am not saying "let's make it so tight that there are no new chasers on here". Everyone has got to start somewhere. I just want a system that discourages nonsense, noise, and posts that violate the rules. It's possible to have interaction of new and veteran chasers in a constructive format. If anyone does not believe that please look at page 3 of this thread 4/29/10 FCST: TX, OK, KS, NE. http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?p=267847#post267847

This an outstanding example of n00b/vet interaction. Thanks to Mickey Ptak, Chris Whitehead, Mikey Gribble, and everyone I am forgetting that posted on that thread!

 

[Jason Blum]

Speaking very frankly, I'm skeptical that Joe Q. Leecher would really take the time to wade through much of the technical discussion in the forums in search of a target, when he/she can much more easily turn on the weather channel or the SPC. Much less take the time to register here and wait for approval. I honestly think that too much credit is being given to the typical leecher.

I do understand that there are exceptions as evidenced by some of those applications quoted at the start of this thread... but I just can't help but think that they are a statistical blip compared to the number of people showing up with shiny new iPhones linked to spotter network, or other easily enabling technology. (Not to mention people trailing prominently-marked chase tour vans and big armored batmobiles!)

It seems to me that judicious screening of applicants (including referrals by existing members), along with an annual membership fee, and a strict zero-tolerance policy for people posting B.S., is the best way to go.

IMHO.

 

[Mike Bennett]

This is a valid point, but again I don't think its really that big of a factor. There may certainly be a lot of people out on the Plains because they've read SPC, Stormtrack, Facebook, or blog posts. However, the reason they are converging and following chasers is not because chasers said where they were going to be, but because their car is decked out in stickers, antennas, and lights. If people feel its important that they not be followed, then they should chase discretely. If chasers feel that their target is being invaded because of their forecasts, they can give a more vague synoptic scale forecast, regional forecasts, or simply discuss the setup as a whole without giving a pinpoint target.

I agree with this part of Skip's post. The lurkers or whatever you want to call them react, I believe, mostly from TV and radio simulcasts. This occurs often close to metro areas or close to fairly large towns. At least it seems to me when a chase becomes a circus is when there is a lot of media coverage on a particular storm. The locals come out of the woodwork. I think this is being blown way out of proportion. Closing the Target Area is not going to change this.

I am a media chaser. I have been chasing since the early 90's, pre-"Twister". I started out chasing close to home and later hooked up with the local county Emergency Management. I've been a media chaser since 2003. I have been a weather enthusiast since I was in high school in the 70's. I do not have a meteorological degree, but that does not make me less an enthusiast than those who do. My forecast skills are not good, but that does not make me less an enthusiast than those who have learned how to read and interpret the forecast models.

If one of the criteria is going to be, limiting the Target Area to those who post, I guess that leaves me out. I've posted several times on other threads, but none in the Target Area. I'm not going to post if I have nothing valid to offer. I use the Target and Forecast Area as a tool. That tool allows me to plan ahead with my regular job for time off in order to chase for the news station I chase for. I use it to learn more about forecasting, but I'll never consider myself a forecaster, nor do I really desire to become one. I rely on the meteorologists at the news station, the SPC and the NWS to do the forecasting. I just prepare for the chase ahead of time and go when it is time. I don't believe that makes me less of a skilled chaser than those who forecast and chase.

I enjoy reading other interpretations, especially several days ahead of an event. I start getting some insight on a potential event long before the SPC or NWS start talking about it. I do not use the Target Area to latch onto other chasers. Quite the contrary. I would in most instances rather be where the circus is not, anyway. Side Note: Maybe it is me, but it seems that there is a lot of pessimism in the stormtrack forecasts anyway unless the event is going to be a high risk day or a higher end moderate risk day. I have had some pretty successful days on the slight risks as I'm sure many of you have had. End Note.

If Stormtrack closes the Target Area, they will take away a big chunk of the enjoyment I get from being member. I would encourage those who make this decision to consider everyone. It seems to me, you are painting all those who do not post in the Target Area with a pretty broad brush. I could post my Target Area on each event, but I won't. Mostly because I can imagine most of the readers could care less where I'm going. Because I chase for a media station my Target is always going to be anywhere in Oklahoma, the southern half of Kansas, or the Texas panhandle. The lurkers are going to be out there regardless of what decision is made. That will not change as long as we have cable shows (Discovery,TLC, TWC) about storm chasers.

 

[BrandonLBrown]

Lurkers don't even need to read the target area to find out where to chase. They just go to the Discovery Channel's "Stormchasers" page and look at a map to find out where Reed and several other chasers are at in real time. In my opinion that is a much bigger problem than lurkers reading target area forecasts.

 

[Greg Nutsch]

Hi everyone... I am one of the noobs/lurkers you speak of... (first post too) I will go on record here and say, that I am not a chaser, but I really enjoy trying to learn from all of the posts in the forecast area. I registered so I can see them and learn what makes a severe weather event come together. Maybe someday I will chase, but in the meantime I am quite content to read the predictions and the logic used in making those predictions. I guess you would say I am a stay at home cyber chaser. I also watch the now cast threads and look at the radar and try and learn. That in a nut shell is why I am here... To learn... I hope you don't see me as a problem, but rather as a student that is trying to learn from all of you. I actually had the opportunity to meet one of the members when he was in the area, because I saw, on line, that he was waiting for initiation at the the local library up the steet. I stopped and visited with him and we talked for a while. Hopefully if I ever find any of you in my community we can meet and visit and I can give you some tips on local roads etc... Over my 45 years in the area I know a lot about the local area and would be glad to share any info if you are here, but trust me, you won't find me getting in your way... I will be here at home on the computer when it starts to hit the fan.

 

[AlDanks]

I read the forecast discussion to learn why one picks one area over another, not to learn where people are going. Bust or not, I make my own decision where to go based on what I've learned, how far from home - Michigan, what kind of time I have available, etc.

What I have learned from reading tells me I know far too little. I appreciate the work the knowledge people here have done to be knowledgeable. I think they deserve to be free from yahoo tag-alongs.

Actually, chaser convergence is a concern for me too. The last thing I want when chasing is having to deal with a bunch of traffic. This actually factors in my selecting a location that is not what everyone here is picking. My one chase in the TX panhandle I saw far too many cars for my comfort. I'm hoping that the northern plains - farther from the OK chase crowd - will be a better.

I also read the forecast discussion for Winter weather, not just convective.

 

[Allan Jeffers]

At least let me READ those sections
Its would be nice to be able to post there too and interact with people in the same area I am in should severe weather be in my area.

 

[Mike Deep]

I've been a non-chaser lurker on here for a few years now. For the most part I don't view the Forecasts & Nowcasts forum, let alone post. Instead my interest lies with the Post-storm Discussion forum and the general Weather category. FWIW, I wouldn't dream of following someone or their target. I wouldn't even go chasing without partnering with someone experienced first. And my number one goal on this forum has been to stay out of the way.

Occasionally I'll duck in to Forecasts & Nowcasts to see what the general feeling is on an upcoming event, but I don't use that information beyond satisfying my own curiosity (Much like how I'll check on Spaceweather). Certainly I could go on without any access to that forum. I would gladly pay an annual fee just for access to Post-storm Discussion and general forums; Forecasts & Nowcasts would be a bonus. (I'd have no use for posting privileges there, however).

 

[Brian Douglas]

I guess perhaps I am a lurker, and have been for several years, finally got approved yesterday so I could...read the forecasts. Why? I am a small town elected official somewhere in tornado alley who is one of only a couple people in our community who makes the call on when to deploy our own spotters and when to set off the tornado sirens. I have read every single post in this thread and have a few observations of my own I would like to share, that might result in me being kicked off of the forum.

I will admit I use some of you guys forecasts to help me forecast whether or not we will need to spot, in our own community. Several of you are pretty sharp cookies, and tend to pinpoint where you think severe weather may occur much more locally than the NWS, which I also use. Your forum is helpful to me, not so I can drive 150 miles to get in your way, but so I can have a little lead time on what I am going to be doing on a given day, and pass that info along to the rest of the spotters who watch over our community. The flip side of this issue many of you may not have considered is when there have actually been severe weather events in my area, some of you have been in OUR way.

It is something you might want to consider. You may not want the general public sponging info from your forum, but sometimes, the general public isn't too wild about you being in the middle of their natural disaster. I think this is perhaps a two way street. Some of what I have read on this thread has changed my attitude about storm chasers. A few of us lurkers are doing it for rather good reasons.

 

[Dave Nelson]

Ohhh Gosh,

I wonder how you feel about my presence here ?? Being in Australia, I may only get to chase in the USA maybe every 4-5 yrs. During those times my regular presence would be known on here.
Heck, this last summer season in Oz was so poor, I didnt even post on our local forum. In the intervening yrs between my chase times in the USA, I would virtually be classed as a lurker. Popping in periodically to see what my fellow chasers in the USA have been up to. To keep track of new events and to improve my knowledge on weather systems and forcasting. If I have something that I feel would be of interest to the masses I would post it. Sometimes I have felt reluctant to do so , not really knowing what the group's attitude to posts about respectable Australian weather (outside USA) events is like ?

A member since 2006

cheers

 

[Mark Blue]

To me it seems like a good idea to lock down the Forecast and Nowcast threads, but I'm not sure how easy it would be to make them available a day or two after the fact. Perhaps there is an option within the software that would allow you to do so, perhaps not. If it is possible to make them available after the fact that would be a very good way to make it work for everyone involved.

I am on board with the idea of making those particular threads non-public, but not to the extent that this forum becomes elitist in any way. Screening applicants on the front end via the essay process is a good start, but it seems as though it has become very time consuming to process the shear number of folks crashing the front door. A fee might slow this down, but $5 is chump change so I think you'll need to make it higher to accomplish the goal of turning lurkers away from the get go.

 

[Bill Hark]

I personally don't care if "lurkers" read my forecasts. Many of them are also trying to learn. Years ago, I used to lurk and read forecasts to help in my learning process. It was a while before I felt confident enough to post a forecast on my own. In fact, I would rather somebody "lurk" than post a badly written "forecast." The best way to learn is to make ones own forecast and compare it to others. I have been caught in a number of chasers traffic jams and I really think most of those folks are locals who saw the groups of chasers, the approaching storm, TIV, VORTEX etc and decided to join in. "Leeches," who have read Stormtrack, are likely in the minority. I could go along with closing the forecast/nowcast thread to the non member public like bar and grill but I would oppose trying to make a posting criteria for those threads. Of course, the usual rules for posting should be strictly enforced for Forecast/Nowcast and Reports sections.

Bill Hark