Lurkers, Target Area, memberships, and Stormtrack

[Scott Taylor]

Are we on the right track here or do you think there is justification for sharing some of the forecasts publically?

Absolutely on the right track. I was for this a couple of years ago...

What I see these lurkers doing is just reading where people are headed and then showing up and following chasers.

I posted the same thing about this very topic in the site forum a year or so ago, about potential chase leaching and photograph grabbing, and recommended for those very reasons that only members be able to see these forums. Its the right way to go IMO..

Scott

 

[John Farley]

I have a slightly different view than some of you. I learned a lot about forecasting (and still sometimes do) by reading these threads, and I think they are a good way for new chasers to learn about forecasting and chasing. Yes, I am sure there are some who leech off the forecasts here, but do we really have any evidence that it is a lot of people? I am guessing that one or two bust days when they make a long drive to whereever everybody thought would be good, and then the cap holds or overnight convection messes up the target, tends to cure that behavior fairly quickly.

In other words, I suspect that the learning opportunities to help people better understand severe weather forecasting outweigh the leeching problem.

 

[Jay Bell]

Tim,

I think you are absolutely on the right track. And I also feel you and all of the others that help keep this thing rolling do a great job! Do I post very often....nope. Do I read all the time....yup. Do I base my forecast off the forecasts others have posted in the target area for a specific chase....no, BUT....I do reference others thoughts AFTER I already have my target...and sometimes not until after the event is over. You know, after 15 years of chasing I can honestly say, I have a pretty fair grip on forecasting and chasing in general, but that doesn't mean I can't learn from others, many of which do have fewer years/less experience chasing.

Why have I stayed so silent? I was on ST when it launched several years ago, and for whatever reason, my membership lapsed and I renewed in 2006. But, I remember in those earlier days, with much less experience, being made to feel unwelcome by a few members that as far as I can tell, are not even here anymore. Thus led to my quietness here now. So, just because some do not post much, be careful not to lump those people into the same category as the "leeches". And please understand, I do not think that you are.

That said, there are a number of VERY experienced and VERY well known chasers on the list, that almost never post....many for the exact same reason, and that is our loss for sure.

BUT...I do like the idea of making sure this is a chaser forum. The examples you cite are indicative of the growing popularity of our hobby. I really don't think, and honestly i don't feel anyone else should think, this will end the challenges faced in the field with leeches, locals, or whatever you want to call them. ST is NOT the problem. I think the challenges we face are quite complicated...and will probably never be solved.

I very much enjoy ST and 99% of the members contributing to it. We do have, overall, a good community. I don't want to see it turn into an elitist, or closed off forum that doesn't encourage the new chaser, because, remember, we were all brand spankin new once too.

What about something like this....Perhaps allow the target area to post publicly AFTER an event? For instance, 4-22-10, when I and every other chaser in the free world seemed to be in the TX Panhandle....maybe that target area thread could "go public" on 4-23-10? That might be logistically difficult, I am not sure, but it would open the door to the new chasers who seriously want to learn, to be able to see what others were seeing during the day's evolution. Thoughts?

Be Safe

Jay Bell

Edit: Just want to second what John said above....I feel exactly the same way!

 

[Skip Talbot]

I agree with a closed Target Area policy. I'd like to see this community of chasers kept together, and I think if we just open up completely to the public, more people are going to drift off of here. Yes, these forecasts are also potentially harmful in the wrong hands. However, people's willingness to participate, and share their knowledge is more important, and if that means locking the Target Area then I think its a wise decision.

What I see these lurkers doing is just reading where people are headed and then showing up and following chasers.

This is a valid point, but again I don't think its really that big of a factor. There may certainly be a lot of people out on the Plains because they've read SPC, Stormtrack, Facebook, or blog posts. However, the reason they are converging and following chasers is not because chasers said where they were going to be, but because their car is decked out in stickers, antennas, and lights. If people feel its important that they not be followed, then they should chase discretely. If chasers feel that their target is being invaded because of their forecasts, they can give a more vague synoptic scale forecast, regional forecasts, or simply discuss the setup as a whole without giving a pinpoint target.

 

[Brent Willcox]

I've not been a member long, and I don't get to chase all that often due to "other responsibilities" (i.e. Ork) but I learn a heck of a lot by reading what's going on in Target Area even though I seldom if ever post unless something is going on in NC Texas.

If you have to close it, at least make the threads readable after the fact so folks that are still learning the forecasting side (like me) can learn the right way and maybe even eventually become decent forecasters.

Chase Safe,

Brent W
KD5WYU

 

[Jason Bolt]

Tim,

I too agree with what you're doing here, even though I may be one of the people that gets the boot. I only got to chase five times last year, and I've only started one FCST thread due to me being a novice forecaster and feeling very intimidated by some of the great forecasting minds on here. This needs to be a chaser forum. It has overwhelmingly become a weather enthusiast and spotter forum. Nothing wrong with that, but I'm just seeing a huge number of people that aren't really chasers posting TONS of useless noise in the Target Area. It needs to stop. Pull the weeds.

 

[Jim wyman]

I am not a chaser, time, money, and life have prevented me from doing it. Also before I started to chase I wanted to know as much as I could from experienced people I like to read the forecasts/nowcast purely for my own information/education and just to see what is going on and what you guys are saying in it, as a personal rule I don't post unless I feel like I have something constructive to say, hence why I became a member not for forecasts but more of the ability to ask questions and get answers from experienced people, learn by watching, and get to know how the community is in a more real setting not off of popular media. I need to say from what I have seen you are some of the nicest people out there and no matter what your motive is for chasing always seem to be willing to lend a helping hand to not only each other but to people out side of your community.

I do understand about your concerns about the "yahoos" clogging up the roads and getting them selves in harms way by acting stupid. I agree with the web site idea (and maybe even the 5 dollars for access to Forecast with no posting privileges to those who just want to lurk). With the website I would also suggest some sort of page(s) devoted to tornado/sever storm safety I mean if we want to educate people about weather I would think safety would be a biggie.

Right on! I don't put anything on here unless I know I'm 100% sure of the subject matter. otherwise, I keep quiet and learn from the experts...

 

[Mike Johnston]

I'm generally supportive of a more open forum where folks can learn, and contribute as they feel comfortable.

I highly doubt that an open forecast forum seriously contributes to chaser convergence. IMO, chaser convergence is a function of 1) everyone's looking at the same data and many times a target area becomes fairly obvious in the short range, 2) opportunity to get out (eg weekend vs. weekday), 3) proximity to populations with a high degree of interest, and 4) general chase conditions such as terrain, roads, etc.

Re: the example applications Tim shared, I take the stated reasons at face value and doubt that "poaching forecasts" should be a serious problem.

Re: creating an additional revenue source by charging a nominal fee, I think this should be left to the administration as they have the information to make such a decision. Having said that, why not charge $10. It's still very nominal, and if the idea works the revenue would be greatly enhanced.

 

[MClarkson]

People have to learn somewhere, and everyone has no experience at some point. WHy not let them learn here? The information we post is not much different than what you would find in the SPC and NHC discussions, so why hide it?

 

[Benjamin Smith]

I like the idea of making them public the day after. That way people can see what happened with the forecasts and learn from them, but you eliminate the risk of "leechers". Not sure on the logistics of that, but that would keep both sides happy...

 

[Tim Stoecklein]

If you have to close it, at least make the threads readable after the fact so folks that are still learning the forecasting side (like me) can learn the right way and maybe even eventually become decent forecasters.

Chase Safe,

Brent W
KD5WYU

I'd support this 100%! My intention in suggesting the "sealed" forecast area is not to shut out folks from learning, as I mentioned, I learned (and continue) a lot this way. I guess it's our choice not to post a forecast on a public forum, but I'd hate to jump to that side of the fence...

 

[Allan Jeffers]

Well guess I'm gone too. I am a backyard chaser since I have a job that will not allow me to chase. I don't drive nore do I know a whole lot about weather.

 

[Eian Greene]

I think it's the right move to block people who are only going to lurk in the Target Area forums and possibly only add noise to that section. There are enough resources out there (blogs, SPC, and spotter network) if someone doesn't want to forecast and just go out follow what everyone else is doing.

If the public wants to know where severe weather will be on a given day, that's what the SPC and local WFO are there for and do a good job at it. Chaser forecasts are generally not in line with what the public needs to know about severe weather, IMO.

(long post ahead!)

I can't agree more! I attended a spotter training recently, and the met pointed to a resource called "Forecast Discussion". Add the SPC, and local media into the mix, and they're covered!

I whole-heartedly feel that the public has Plenty of resources available to them w/out having to use StormTrack. Chasing has its rewards, however there is a disproportionately high risk for the inexperienced, and even the experienced.

I joined this site almost two years ago because I wanted to learn more about severe weather. In that time, I've learned plenty... Just 2 weeks ago, I attended a Skywarn training and now I'm out there looking for the bad stuff.

The Target area doesn't need anymore noise... I like to hit the older NOW: threads and get an understanding of how certain outbreaks went down... 2/5/08 stands out since many events were at night, something I experienced in TN as a kid, that's personal...

 

[MatthewCarman]

I noticed reports and discusion being posted in the NOW threads. I thought the now threads were suposed to be about the ongoing weather?

 

[John Wetter]

You don't have a storm chaser discussion board without discussion...