Janurary 3-7: Major West Coast Storm

[Khristian Snyder]

All the medium range models are in very good agreement that a very large series of stroms will impact the west coast over the next several days....with the largest on late friday into saturday.

Everything about this storm is amazing:
There is plenty of moisture coming from the tropics....extremely strong winds to aid orographics, and plenty of dynamics.

Many areas should see several inches of rain and mountains which face into the wind will likely see double digit amounts.

What an incredible 5 day QPF!!:

I will be heading up into the sierras post storm to get some snowboarding in.
NWS Reno has blizzard warnings out and says that snow totals can range from 9 to 11 feet and even more in some areas...with the winds I cant even imagine the snow drifts!

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

Im in California now, and all locals are tying things down and preparing for this one. Very ominous wording over NWR, mentioning gusts up to 90mph!!

I just hope I can fly back to IL tommorow, but I bet my flight will be cancelled...

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

[FONT=lucida sans typewriter, lucida console, courier]FRIDAY
STRONG WINDS. SNOW AND RAIN. SNOW LEVEL RISING TO 7000
FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 4 INCHES...WITH 20 TO 30 INCHES ABOVE
7000 FEET. HIGHS 37 TO 47. SOUTHWEST WINDS 30 TO 45 MPH SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTH 25 TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH. RIDGE
GUSTS UP TO 145 MPH.

LOL that sounds like fun. I'm not seeing this 9-11 feet thing mentioned anywhere though. Dang it, I wish I lived like half as far from there.
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[fplowman]

What is Ontario weathers spin on this? Anyone know? lol

 

[Robert Dewey]

What is Ontario weathers spin on this? Anyone know? lol

Wind gusts to 250mph, 15-30 feet of snow for LA, and some massive wildfires between 3:03PM and 4:16:30PM January 6th, according to the advanced non-mathematical formula and charts. lol

 

[Jason Branz]

Definitely looks like a doozy. Winds are starting to pick up here in the Sac Valley and the first wave of rain isn't far away. Anyone who travels across the Sierra tomorrow is nuts...I-80 and 50 will be a mess with blowing snow and very strong winds. Looks like you SoCal folks will get some much-needed precip too.

The lastest model runs are starting to back off the QPF a little bit with this first wave, probably due to the very dry airmass in place right now. Tomorrow will be the main wave which should bring that crazy QPF, as posted earlier.

I think I'm heading to Yosemite after this thing passes for some winter photography.

 

[Khristian Snyder]

Here is a message someone on another forum recieved from the NWS in Reno concerning snowfall in the sierras:

The forecasted totals your are referring to are accumulations just
through Saturday Morning. We do expect portions of the high Sierra in
Mono County to receive 9-11 feet of snow when it's all said and done.
The very highest peaks could see much more than that. We have been briefing
Mono County Emergency Officials and they have activated their Emergency
Operations Center. They would have any information as far emergency
shelters and storm preparations.

Rhett

 

[Jason Branz]

The atmosphere is moistening up at the surface here in Sac, but down in the San Joaquin valley it's still pretty dry. The orographics with this storm should lead to large accumulations (it's slamming right into the range), but maybe a bit lower for the central Sierra at first due to the present dry airmass. NWS Reno has the following graphic:

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/rev/wxgraphics/GraphicCast.php?image=1

I'd fully expect Donner Pass (80) and 50 to be closed for a while tomorrow. But at least the snowpack will be better this year!

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

Man, just on the other side of the peninsula, down by pebble beach, it looks downright scary!! Black, and huge swells...

San Fran/Monterey has issued an Airport Weather Warning.. Anyone know exactly what that does? Does that cause Airports to cancel flights?

 

[Mike Smith]

Airports can be closed by local airport management, but only airlines cancel flights.

An airport weather warning is issued by the NWS when a set of circumstances unique to that airport (i.e., it will be different for SFO as compared to, say, ICT or ORD) is expected to cause operational hazards.

 

[Jason Branz]

This link is good to see CA and NV precip forecasts:

http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/precipForecast.php?cwa=RSA&day=1&img=5

Day 2 (Friday) looks pretty impressive for the Sierra and the coastal ranges.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

From Reno office:

[FONT=lucida sans typewriter, lucida console, courier]MODEL QPF CONTINUES TO INCREASE ONLY FURTHER INCREASING CONFIDENCE
IN THIS PORTION OF THE STORM. EXPECTING AROUND 6 INCHES OF SNOW PER
HOUR WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR 8 INCHES PER HOUR DURING THIS PORTION
OF THE STORM. THIS COMBINED WITH THE UNUSUALLY STRONG WINDS WILL
CREATE VERY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS IN THE SIERRA.


Well if one can't see in 6-8 inch/hour snowfall rates....I'm sure the 100+ mph gusts won't be doing them any favors. Nuts.
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[Joel Wright]

Holy s#@$! 8" per hour? That is unbelievable. Man I'd love to be able to see something like that!

 

[Mike Kovalchick]

http://kamala.cod.edu/ca/latest.fxus65.KREV.html

NWS Area forecast discussion for the Sierra mentions gusts to 200 mph!

 

[Matthew Crowther]

San Fransisco over 66 mph gust with numerous wind damage reports coming in already from across the region. Incredible snowfall rates in the Sierra right now, totals will exceed 8 feet by Sunday.