Is the chase season "over"?

[ericjkelly]

Hey guys. Ok I know that there will always be a chance for tornado's etc, but would we all agree that the chase season is about over? It was nice two weeks ago to have a few days with a "spring" plains setup but it feels like the overall trend it slowing down.

Is it time to take all of the equipment out of my SUV. My wife would like that!

Note: I am in Fort Wayne, IN If I lived in ND I might have a different answer!

 

[rdale]

In Indiana? I'd say no.

 

[Zachary Biggs]

Yes the season is over. Its been over for about a month now.
And yes I live in Texas so this information is totally useless to you.

It still looks like there could be decent storms from the Dakotas across the great lakes region for another week or two... but as far as actual tornadic activity I have very little confidence.
If I lived anywhere in that area I would likely still be looking out for opportunities to chase a few supercells in the coming few weeks... even if I lived as far south as Indiana.

 

[ericjkelly]

Zach,

Hey thanks for the input! That's exactly what I have been doing. We don't get the classic isolated supercells here like in the plains but I grab them while I can!

 

[Andy Wehrle]

With this ridge keeping the westerlies confined to the Canadian border, there hasn't been a chance of a decent storm event even here in southern Wisconsin.

 

[Andy Jackson]

I'm just doing the occasional chase from here on out. I'm thinking there could be one or two good northern plains events in the July/August time frame. As far as Indiana, you guys seem to get some good end of summer setups so just keep an eye on the models.

 

[D. Hayes]

Yes, numbers will be down to nil but that isn't saying that there will be no more descent storms. Last September we had some great late season storms that produced some of the biggest hail on record along with some tornado action. I'll call game over when the temps start settling down to below 80 for local storms.

 

[Adam Adkins]

Psshh no. In Colorado the season continues into August, especially with the help of the summer monsoon.

 

[Adam Lucio]

Traditional chase season is over. A freak setup can happen at anytime so the tornado season never really ends, especially for those in the midwest, northern plains and upslope areas. Also for people who dont just seek tornadoes, summer derechos are fun to chase sometimes and have very dramatic shelf cloud structure. Then there is the fall mini season, but that is never a guarantee and I don't think there has been a decent fall setup since 07

 

[Stephen Levine]

It depends upon what you like to chase. I look at storm chasing the way that birders look at bird watching.
Any good storm is game.. and good lightning shots are available to be had clear through the warm weather season.
To me, each storm has it's own personality and it's a joy getting to know each one.. a tornado then serves as icing on the cake. To behold the power unleashed through wind, rain and electricity can truly be an awesome experience beyond words.

 

[Derek Weston]

No. It was over June 12th.

 

[Jason Boggs]

Around here (TX Panhandle), it never started.

 

[Dean Baron]

Depends on where you live. Us in the northern plains will likely get some northwest flow setups with an occasional southwest flow setup thrown in through August. This is fine with me because the NW flow can produce some amazing structure, and the roads are not nearly as crowded either.

 

[Bob Hartig]

Living in the Great Lakes, Eric, about the time when you pack away your gear is the time when a system will blow through that will make you wish you had left everything in place. But it's nothing you can count on.

It sounds like your setup is elaborate enough that you're reluctant to dismantle it once it's installed. But with the peak season of tornadic activity now past where I'm guessing you're likely to chase, how badly do you need the whole shooting match? Why not make your wife happy by dismantling your full springtime array, but keep the essentials handy--laptop, GPS, USB modem, and camera--so you can grab them in a heartbeat if and when you need them. You really don't need a lot in order to enjoy a successful chase.

 

[Jason Foster]

Well out of the statistical peak. I've haven't run the numbers for a while...but I think the bell curve is well below the 80% mark. I think that hasn't ever reached into July when off season outlier events are not included.

over the years I think the general rule is the end of the traditional chase season in the traditional chase territories is around the middle part of June.