Hurricane Noel (was TS Noel, TD16, Invest 90L)

[RodgerHeckman]

You in Vegas again?? Get back home! We can't have a Wilma repeat for you-- you'll go crazy.

Actually I am in TX now, but I do have a back up plan this time in the event a repeat scenario happens. I do agree with Stuart about the Euro, but it sure got my attention when I saw that.

 

[HAltschule]

Do not trust models that far out (264 hours). They are JUST for very loose guidance.

The shear, as usual, has NOT relaxed ... Showing how lousy the tropics are on this side of the world this year once again.

After 15 years of operational forecasting these things, i, of all people, know that this is loose guidance. However, it is still something to watch and may just pan out. We shall wait, watch and see.

Non-tropical cyclones of this nature and in this area tend to verify. So, watch and learn my friend.

PS: Lots of consistency in the GFS model today gives more credibility to this scenario. The GFS has a monster, MONSTER storm off the Jersey coast in 240 +/- hours.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

Quick update as it is late here over in England.

Just to recap – Invest 90L has been called for this disturbance (Well we all know that by know.)
IR Sat images don’t look actually that bad at all – indeed I will go out on a limb and call this a Tropical Depression right now (note: convection is just about touching -80c) and DORVAK estimates are also just a tad below TD right now.

25/2345 UTC18.8N 64.9W T1.5/1.5 90L -- Atlantic Ocean

Rainfall has already affected P.R. with two deaths already reported in a mudslide. The saturated ground is going to be a problem for PR as the track of the invest will give a high rain fall event for PR.

Shear is still a factor for this system as well as land mass , The Euro paints an East Florida (hurricane) while GFS / GFDL show a tropical storm only South of Cuba – SHIP’s only make this a tropical storm.

However… if you take the current GFS/MRF shear prognosis ……
Conditions (upper air shear) in the Carib become VERY conducive for development.
Granted that this system is (a) close to land and (b) is actually forming
We need a RECON Synoptic flight so that the models can get a grip on this.
Right now (01:20z) there are no recon flights scheduled.

 

[Jose Garcia]

Hi Stuart...

The rain associated with the tragic incident today was more with daytime heating combined with the topography of the central part of the island than from the system itself even though it has its influence. It has been the case for more than a week now and the terrain here is saturated enough for this kind of things to happen. The circulation can clearly be seen very near the island of Vieques off the east coast of PR. The winds here have picked up in the past hour to about 10-15mph maybe a gust near 20mph. Gurabo is in the east-central part of the island about 20 miles south of San Juan, so probably in the NE coast those winds are a little bit stronger. What a blast. The rain event should be tomorrow after the center passes the area. We'll see...

Jose

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Invest 90L continues to struggle. It's looking quite sheared and NHC says no development until it gets further W in a couple of days.

Meanwhile, a new, healthier-looking 1009-mb low is analyzed in the NW Caribbean, near 17N 83W. That looks a bit more interesting to me, frankly-- as it's in a better place and convection is actually near the low center!

 

[HAltschule]

Updates:

1. It looks to me like the weather system over th far Western Caribbean is now at or very close to being a TD.

2. The wave that has formed west of Tampa, FL also bears watching. There is a large area of convection and an unorganized circulation with the system. This area and area 1 have the potential to develop into tropical or subtropical storms soon.

3. The models continue to show a monster coastal low in the northeastern states in about 220-240 hours (around November 4-5). 850mb winds are progged to be near 70+ knots on the east side of the storm. If this storm materializes, it would be a major gale or storm force event for southern and eastern New England. Future posts on this system should be made under Weather/Chasing so if I post again on the NE Coastal Low...it will be in the proper area.

 

[Jim Leonard]

The main disturbance is in the eastern Caribbean near 15N and 70W. The convection has flared up quite a bit over the past few hours although the shear is still an isue as far as development. Over the next few days the shear is progged to decrease so the system should slowly organize and develop. The low is quite large and fairly well established so it has that going for it as far as further development despite the shear in the short term. If the shear models are correct we could possibly see a hurricane somewhere in the western Caribbean toward mid-week.

 

[Forrest lambert]

Well, to bad i cant make it down there to see it. that last hurricane i was in was BOB' back in 91 wind were 80+ mph. i think we are overdue for a hurricane to strike but who knows. on capecod where i live, power was out for almost a week trees down all over the cape. everyone in my family was outside in it. no rain it did rain pond water from a pond we live next to because of a mini tornado that went over us. my eyes lit up then.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Invest 90L is a very, very large disturbance. While most of the action is E of the low center (~15N 70W), I'm impressed by the coverage of deep convection. If the shear slackens off a bit, this could get very interesting.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Although the system still looks a bit sheared, Dr. Jeff Masters, in his blog on Weather Underground this evening, is being exceeedingly bullish Re: the possibility of a "Halloween Hurricane":

I am expecting 90L to develop into a tropical storm by Monday, and a into hurricane later in week, if the system does not track directly along the length of Cuba. The eastern 2/3 of Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands should anticipate the possibility of a tropical storm affecting them on Monday and Tuesday. Later in the week, these regions, plus western Cuba, South Florida, the Bahamas, and Mexico's Yucatan, are at risk of a hurricane.

Hot stuff!!

 

[cdcollura]

Good evening,

Although the system still looks a bit sheared, Dr. Jeff Masters, in his blog on Weather Underground this evening, is being exceeedingly bullish Re: the possibility of a "Halloween Hurricane":

I am expecting 90L to develop into a tropical storm by Monday, and a into hurricane later in week, if the system does not track directly along the length of Cuba. The eastern 2/3 of Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands should anticipate the possibility of a tropical storm affecting them on Monday and Tuesday. Later in the week, these regions, plus western Cuba, South Florida, the Bahamas, and Mexico's Yucatan, are at risk of a hurricane.

Hot stuff!!

I hope this pans out - It's about time!

When S Florida is under a hurricane warning, then I will be convinced ;-)

What's going on at FL 180 (500 MB) is really not pretty right now in terms of strong W flow (still).

 

[Josh Morgerman]

TD 16

It's formed from 90L, and advisories will start at 11 pm EDT.

I am dying to see the NHC's forecast track and intensities. If the shear let's up, this one could get nasty.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

The NHC track takes TD16 (Ingrid to be) right across Cuba where the high terrain will kill it flat. But as well all know 5 day track forecasts are often wrong.

Interesting that the SHIP model brings TD 16 to 67 knots in 48 hours and 90 knots at 120 hours.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

The NHC track takes TD16 (Ingrid to be) right across Cuba where the high terrain will kill it flat. But as well all know 5 day track forecasts are often wrong.

Crossing Cuba at the angle the NHC track indicates definitely won't kill it-- it would go across a fairly quickly, and Cuba is not a big meatball of high terrain like Hispaniola. Such a crossing won't help it, of course, but it won't kill a well-organized cyclone. (Moving along Cuba lengthwise is a different story.)

My concern about this track is more that 1) it won't have time to really spin up over the NW Caribbean, 2) it'll spend its best over a Communist country where we can't chase, and 3) like Michelle 2001, it'll probably be in a sheared/transitioning state as it crosses the Bahamas-- not a quality, pure-tropical tropical system.

It would be much better, from a chase perspective, if this thing keeps W.

Interesting that the SHIP model brings TD 16 to 67 knots in 48 hours and 90 knots at 120 hours.

Yeah, I dig the SHIPS. 90 kt would be sweet.

 

[Tampa Dave]

Yeah baby!

My hat's off to all of you for insisting that the season is not over till it's over. The NHC is taking this into the Bahamas by mid wk. Accurate? Does anyone know what the water temps are in the region? Looking at the forward calendar, making a "sharp" right turn. Maybe too sharp? Any chances this would make its way to FLA's west coast?