Hurricane Dean

[Justin Turcotte]

TPC may have jumped the gun revising their track south a tad. Dean went right through the earlier forecast point and then took that brief w/sw jog and is now wobbling back at a decent northwest angle toward the next original forecast point. The early 00z guidance all were a tick south and that is probably what the TPC bit on. I've seen too many of these storms wobble off a highly clustered path too many times, even 12 hours out. We shall see with this one but Jamaica has had reasonable success deflecting these things in the past.

 

[Matthew Crowther]

I just arrived in Jamaica with Jim Leonard. Currently Dean is at 920mb and looks great on satellite. It's going to get a bit wild here tomorrow evening.

The guests at the hotel here are starting to get worried, especially since we showed up, a lot of them tried to get out but the airport was flooded with vacationers trying to flee. It's amazing how many people have no clue what is about to happen here...
George Kourounis
www.stormchaser.ca

I am now thinking that the storm may miss the island to the south- but you still should get a good show.

 

[MClarkson]

Latest HWRF takes the storm well south of Jamaica. GFDL takes it south of the island, but still pretty close. Both then strengthen the storm a bit more and landfall south of cozumel.


Recon just made another eye pass. Pressure is up a few mb since a few hours ago, but that is expected with the ERC ongoing. Im actually surprised at how the pressure hasnt really risen despite the replacement cycle starting at least 6 hours ago.

 

[Mikey Gribble]

It now looks like Jamaica may miss the worst of it. Don't get me wrong, they are going to take a pounding, but last night it was looking like the eye would make a direct hit on the eastern part of the island. Now it looks more like Dean will skirt the southern tip of the island. That is good news for those with interests in Jamaica.
The track could still shift very easily. I don't have much time to look at data right now, but the heaviest convection has consistently been on the N and NE side of the storm (over the last hour or two) and I wouldn't be surprised to see Dean start cheating back to the North a bit over the next couple hours as a result.

 

[John Peters]

Over the last few hours dean's eye has expanded considerably... I'm wondering if this is the end of the ERC?

 

[Mikey Gribble]

I've been told this site has radar from Jamaica, but I can't verify that because I haven't gotten the page to fully open yet (I'm connected through my cell phone though). http://www.metservice.gov.jm/radarpage.asp

I also updated my page and forecast for the three people that actually look at it (one of which is my mom).
http://www.loadedgunchasing.com/TropicalCyclonePage.html

 

[cedwards]

I've been told this site has radar from Jamaica, but I can't verify that because I haven't gotten the page to fully open yet (I'm connected through my cell phone though). http://www.metservice.gov.jm/radarpage.asp

I have been having the same problem. Yesterday the radar loaded fine.

 

[Brian Emfinger]

I have been having the same problem. Yesterday the radar loaded fine.

Hey, where exactly on Jamaica is the group thats down there? Its going to be really close with the eye itself maybe just grazing the southern coast. That last little wobble nearly was enough but it looks like they will need another wobble to get in the eye (depending on where they are).

 

[Danny Neal]

Hey, where exactly on Jamaica is the group thats down there? Its going to be really close with the eye itself maybe just grazing the southern coast. That last little wobble nearly was enough but it looks like they will need another wobble to get in the eye (depending on where they are).

Initially I heard they were on the north shore. But they may have relocated when the storm itself started sagging south

 

[Warren Faidley]

Hopefully they will get some action before sunset in about 4.5 hours. The last report I saw was 9 mph from the NW. I know how frustrating it is to go that far and have to sit there outwaiting darkness. I'm gald they are in a group. Some areas of Jamaica are scary even w/o a storm. I think the winning location for chasing this storm will be along the E. Mex. coast, but at the present forward speed, it will likely strike at night. Unfortunately, major storms striking that region can kill hundreds or thousands from inland flooding.

Warren

 

[beaudodson]

There is one chaser in Cancun - he may move south. He is posting reports on this thread:

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=139960

His web-site is Icyclone:
http://www.icyclone.com/

His name is Josh Morgerman

 

[B Ozanne]

Kingston is reporting 70kts gusting to 100kts. This was a TAF ob on wunderground.com.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Eye just made what appears to be a substantial wobble to the N/NW on IR image, so it should be getting pretty exciting there about right now!

Warren

 

[MClarkson]

MKJP 192100Z 14070KT 1000 BKN010 SCT016 OVC080 XX/XX Q0992


If they got a position further south, they could get some excellent shots as the eyewall scrapes by. They have a bit of light left.

 

[Marko Korosec]

From the latest satelite scans it seems that its turning more NW-wards than W-wards. Also Kingston reporting 80mph gusts right not at 4pm local time.

Guys there in Jamaica are making some good footage now.

PS: could someone explain what this "wobble" means, please? And why this happens? Thanks!