Hurricane Dean

[Reed Timmer]

We just arrived at a "hurricane-proof" hotel in Runaway Bay, Jamaica, just west of Ocho Rios. This place supposedly has bullet-proof windows, and a very solid structure. The only problem is they're turning off the wifi in 3 hours!

I've never been to Jamaica before...and this place is spectacular.

As expected, people do not seem to be taking this storm seriously at all. We didn't see a single house that was boarded up, or any sign of a cat 4-5 hurricane arriving in less than 24 hours. This could potentially be a very bad situation for Jamaica.

 

[beaudodson]

Jamaica and the Yucatan get hit by hurricanes all the time. They are not unprepared and their infrastructure is not that bad for resisting hurricanes. Both Jamaica and Cancun are difficult to surge. They are certainly safer and better prepared(Cancun especially) than lets say... New Orleans. Yes, the chasers may get stuck for a few days until the airports resume normal operation, but they know what they are doing.


12z GFDL is much closer to the model consencus now, its still the right outlier but not by much.


keep in mind that the GFDL wind readouts at at 35m and must still be reduced for a good surface estimate.

I would expect to be stuck in Jamaica for longer than a few days (but who knows). One of the main government officials was just on television and said they would likely be without power for more than a MONTH. If a Cat 4 or 5 hits this island - head on - then they are going to have serious problems. Way more than any hurricane in recent memory for that island. I would certainly not want to be around to see the aftermath. Best of luck to those who went to the island. It will be an interested 48 hours ahead.

 

[MClarkson]

One of their priorities will be to reopen the airports.



have fun Reed, i am quite jealous!

 

[Dean Meece]

Radio & TV in Jamaica

Great streaming radio station out of Kingston, Power 106 FM, had it on all day. Has all the curfew information, banks shutting down ATM's at 7PM tonight, power to be shut off tomorrow 10AM. Mandatory evacuations.

http://www.surfmusic.de/radio-station/power-106-fm,7582.html

This seems to be a sports television station, but occassionally has some items on regarding the storm.

http://www.jumptv.com/en/channel/cvmtv/

-Dean

 

[Jim Zandonai]

The Grand Caymans took a hit a couple years ago too and took alot of time to fix up.. As far as Cancun goes the major hotel chains spent millions after Wilma replacing glass with 'hurricane standard glass' I guess. The Marriott and Ritz took months to re-open during this fix.Should be interesting to see how it holds up. Dean looks impressive here as it heads for Jamaica.

 

[MClarkson]

The new plane is in the eye, the central pressure xtrap is lower than it was before(918mb), but there is a double wind maxima and a very wide windfield, indicating the probable start of an eyewall replacement cycle.


EDIT: drop in the eye confirms 923mb.

 

[George Kourounis]

I just arrived in Jamaica with Jim Leonard. Currently Dean is at 920mb and looks great on satellite. It's going to get a bit wild here tomorrow evening.

The guests at the hotel here are starting to get worried, especially since we showed up, a lot of them tried to get out but the airport was flooded with vacationers trying to flee. It's amazing how many people have no clue what is about to happen here...
George Kourounis
www.stormchaser.ca

 

[Marcus Opitz]

damn, I wonder If I can get in there tomarow.....or in that case, grand caymon.

 

[Jim Leonard]

Grand Cayman would be a long shot at this late hour. The authorities on that island will probably shut down up 24 to 36 hours before the storm hits. I hear here in Jamaica the is a 48 hour curfew in effect beginning tonight island wide.

 

[Linda Kitchen]

All you chasers be careful! I hope that your not stuck there for long. Jim where on Jamaica are you?

 

[Justin E. Reed]

So much for my spring break trip to Montego Bay. I already cancelled and got my money back!

 

[Jeff Piotrowski]

Dean Model Update

The 18Z GFDL & HWRF and BAMM models are better agreement. The models now show the core of the Dean about 20-30 miles south of Jamaica.

The 18Z GFDL that has been to right of all other model now is in agreement over the next 60 hours. The GFDL does over estimate the winds. Dean still could make a cat 5 before it makes landfall near Cozumel.

 

[Mike Umscheid]

Last 3 hours worth of loops certainly looks like quite a bit of longitude being chewed up with not much latitude... it's looking like a heading of 275 or 280 now instead of the 285 to 290. If this trend continues through the night, it will be harder and harder for a direct hit on Jamaica... even the southernmost Portland Point. I really don't see much reason why it shouldn't continue a 275-280 heading... which would quite likely spare Jamaica a landfalling eye... most of the latest guidance suggest this as well... that's a hell of a nice ridge directing this thing to the west... I even think Cancun and Cozumel will be spared the brunt... Nevertheless, still some tremendous impacts on Jamaica tomorrow, obviously

 

[Mikey Gribble]

I was watching that too Mike, but now that the heaviest convection is North of the eye it is wobbling back to the North. Although I'm sure most of the people on here know, I figure it is worth mentioning that hurricanes tend to wobble in the direction of the deepest convection. If you watch the latest infrared loop it shows this quite well.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

 

[Mike Umscheid]

I was watching that too Mike, but now that the heaviest convection is North of the eye it is wobbling back to the North. Although I'm sure most of the people on here know, I figure it is worth mentioning that hurricanes tend to wobble in the direction of the deepest convection. If you watch the latest infrared loop it shows this quite well.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

It seems to be wobbling a little more now, you're right, the last two frames at 0145 and 0215 UTC show a wobble more to the northwest. I tell ya, any wobble to the northwest at this stage is that much more worrisome for Kingston... Yikes.