Hurricane Dean

[Mikey Gribble]

Does anybody know anything about the options in northern Mexico? It looks like there is some sort of a bay in the general area where Dean is now forecast to make landfall by NHC.
http://travels.davidmlawrence.com/Mexico/Tamaulipas/images/NMEXICO_STEXAS.png
I'd rather not chase in Mexico, but I'm not sure I'll have a choice.

 

[Bill Tabor]

Chase Mexico during a strong hurricane....is this an intelligence test? I wouldn't go down there under normal situations considering corruption and lack of infrastructure much less during a major hurricane. But that's just me. I suppose there are those that go to third world countries during canes and survive but you definitely have to be in the know and prepared for the unexpected. Good luck if you give it a shot. Will be interesting / entertaining to see how you Mexico chasers prepare and how you fare. Keep us posted.

 

[HAltschule]

I tend to agree. Hopefully those chasers in Jamaica will survive and be OK. But I do not agree with being there in the first place. Not when you have a storm of this magnitude. Given the infrastructure of Jamaica...I would plan on being stranded for 2-3 weeks after the storm has passed. I would also make sure you have enough food and supplies for 2-3 weeks. Hopefully you will be safe and survive the storm.

BTW...did anyone else see the mostg recent GFDL max. sustained wind speed of 177 knts when the storm is between Jamaica and the yucatan? Whew.

 

[Jeff Piotrowski]

Dean Saturday 12Z model update

The 12Z HWRF model has shifted slightly back south. Compared to the 6Z run now brings the center of Dean on the South side of Jamaica by Sunday evening moves WNW along the coast as it heads toward Grand Cayman on Monday

http://grib2.com/animate/hwrfjava.php3?fcsthour=42&type=1000-500_SLPTHKPRP&loop=NOLOOP


The 6Z GFDL has Dean at 900 mb with winds to 177 Knots just before it makes landfall near Cancun.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdl...an04l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

 

[John Peters]

The 6Z GFDL has Dean at 900 mb with winds to 177 Knots just before it makes landfall near Cancun.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdl...an04l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

lol, 177 kts = 200 mph! I tend to think GFDL overestimates wind speeds a bit, while HWRF underestimates min central pressure.

I'm still not too impressed with dean's appearance. I think that the region of CDO with colder cloud top temps needs to expand and become more symmetric on the western side before dean strengthens any further. I also think that interaction with the higher elevations of Hispaniola may slightly disrupt the storms circulation; to what degree will depend on how far south the center passes. Honestly i don't think that dean is going to reach cat 5 before Jamaica. Best chances for an intensity peak are in the higher SSTs west of Jamaica into the Gulf (if the storm does not landfall on the Yucatan)

 

[Kurt Wayne]

Chase Mexico during a strong hurricane....is this an intelligence test? I wouldn't go down there under normal situations considering corruption and lack of infrastructure much less during a major hurricane. But that's just me. I suppose there are those that go to third world countries during canes and survive but you definitely have to be in the know and prepared for the unexpected.

I know there have to be many dedicated weather professionals in the Caribbean and Latin America...but I always am concerned about the populace as well and how well they're able to be warned about events like this, particularly in Mexico given that its a larger nation that would have (I'd think) larger pockets of people who might be more isolated from news.

Then again, "First world" Canada, at least some stations around the Elie, MB tornado of this past June (you have to listen to the radio/audio portion of this one, as well as the reaction of "Bill and Ted" on their trans-Canada highway adventure), seemed to have a few clueless media personnel as well during a major weather event.

 

[Matthew Crowther]

So did Jim L and crew make it into Jamaica?

 

[MClarkson]

Jamaica and the Yucatan get hit by hurricanes all the time. They are not unprepared and their infrastructure is not that bad for resisting hurricanes. Both Jamaica and Cancun are difficult to surge. They are certainly safer and better prepared(Cancun especially) than lets say... New Orleans. Yes, the chasers may get stuck for a few days until the airports resume normal operation, but they know what they are doing.


12z GFDL is much closer to the model consencus now, its still the right outlier but not by much.


keep in mind that the GFDL wind readouts at at 35m and must still be reduced for a good surface estimate.

 

[Rocky Rascovich]

As far as I know they are on their way. Latest advisory still has Dean at 150mph. The course still seems fairly steady at 275-280deg.

I've been pouring over lots of data and have been focusing on a combo of an interaction with the storm and Hispanola and that cold core upper low which actually seems to be moving faster than anticipated; now NW of EYW. With these two players influencing the storm, I'm still in a quandry over the exact path I think it will take.

Either way, whoever gets to Jamaica will be in for a show, but still this hunch tells me that they will escape the worst of it. If I was there, I'd be on the north coast around Ocho Rios to Port Maria.

 

[Mikey Gribble]

I know that Mexico isn't known for it's sound engineering and infrastructure practices, but if that is where Dean wants to go, then we don't have much choice. I am far from being certain that I'm going anyways. I doubt I'd make that treck for a night time landfall and I definitely won't go unless it is a high end cat. 3 at least (I'm talking about northern Mexico, not the Yucatan). I'll see if I can dig up some topo maps and more detailed information on northern Mexico for those that might chase Dean once he crosses the Gulf (I'll post it on here later).
Here is a good link for high res. visible satellite loops for Dean http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_storm_relative_0.html
I updated my tropical cyclone page, so if anybody is interested in inaccurate forecasts, then this is your place
http://www.loadedgunchasing.com/TropicalCyclonePage.html

 

[Justin Turcotte]

I know that Mexico isn't known for it's sound engineering and infrastructure practices, but if that is where Dean wants to go, then we don't have much choice.http://www.loadedgunchasing.com/TropicalCyclonePage.html

Cancun is a modern resort city built pretty sturdy... at least the tourism infrastructure. That said, not much is gonna hold up very well in what is essentially a three hour EF2 tornado. Cancun also has the famed "7" row of resorts which essentially sit on a spit. The "7" comes from the shape of the spit. Storm surge there would not be the monsterous 25+ feet like the U.S. Gulf coast since some of the water could go around the Yucatan but I suspect direct hit there would still produce tremendous surge damage. Now the buildings arn't so good in towns south of the Rio Grande and I wouldn't want to be outside with tin flying everywhere. One bit of potential good news is the GFS doesn't want to bring a tremendous amount of moisture into central Texas. Hopefully that is the case.

 

[MClarkson]

Those modern hotels in cancun will survive anything. Cancun cannot suffer devestating surge due to the convex shape of its coast and the bathymetry. Also the hotels are concrete and steel, meaning they will outlast the eyewall of even a 5. Sure the windows may get punched out in spots and they will suffer rain damage, but on the downwind side a chaser would survive. Cancun is one of the best prepared cities you will find anywhere, not surprising since they get hit so often.

 

[Kurt Wayne]

How prepared are gulf coastal cities farther north as Tampico and Veracruz?

 

[cedwards]

Don't forget that the turist district of Cancun is only PART of the city. The part where the locals live is not as well built. They will have quite a bit to deal with.

 

[Justin Turcotte]

If you're a hurricane junkie the Eastern US Weather Forum is blazing on Dean. A mix of mets and weenies there but plenty good stuff posted every minute.
http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/