Hurricane Dean

[Warren Faidley]

Here is a list of live web cams in some general areas of tropical interest.

http://www.caribbeantravelforums.com/Caribbean_Cams.htm

The Kingston camera is down. Duh.

Maybe there is another one I don't know about? The live TWC footage looks rather benign, except for the usual overdone antics of the reporters.

Warren

 

[B Ozanne]

Note to hurricane chasers: Any country that pre-emptively shuts down their power supply may not have adequate infrastructure.

How far south of Kingston did the eye pass?

Edit: Aside from some cloud top warming I don't see any major geography induced disruptions to the storm.

 

[MClarkson]

The TWC guys are in montego... well north of the eyewall, they will get nothing unless they turn on a couple of their fans again.

Mesoscale wobbles are generally a function of the short timescale of convection, especially while replacement cycles occur, eyewalls contract, other structure changes etc.

Trochoidal wobbles are the result of the eyewall itself slowly rotating around the exact center. They dont always stay lined up, the atmosphere is rarely perfect.

 

[MClarkson]

MKJP 192200Z COR 10099OO120KT 0KM BKN010 BKN012CB OVC080 XX/XX Q0994




if that is correct, and I have little reason to think otherwise... woa!

 

[B Ozanne]

I'm not near TWC right now. How did they end up in Montego Bay? Were they being cautious or did they blow the forecast? I don't think they are going to see too much action on that side of the island.

 

[B Ozanne]

MKJP 192200Z COR 10099OO120KT 0KM BKN010 BKN012CB OVC080 XX/XX Q0994

if that is correct, and I have little reason to think otherwise... woa!

I saw that on some other forum. Where did they get it from?

 

[MClarkson]

that is the metar for kingston international airport

you can find it from adds.aviationweather.gov

...the only thing is it looks a little like a guestimate with a partially broken sensor, the pressure is wrong, t/td have failed...


MKJP 192300Z E11099OO180KT 0KM BKN008 BKN010CB OVC080 24/24 Q0998


I think we can throw out those metars now.

 

[Aaron Kennedy]

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MKJP.html

[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] MKJP 192300Z E11099OO180KT 0KM BKN008 BKN010CB OVC080 24/24 Q0998

I'd say the instrument is suspect given the location of the eye wall and Kingston and the latest ob (200+mph).
[/FONT]

 

[Justin Turcotte]

Dean on Cuba radar

Communist Cuba has better public radar data than Canada and Dean shows up quite well...
http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADARES

 

[B Ozanne]

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MKJP.html

[FONT=Arial,Helvetica] MKJP 192300Z E11099OO180KT 0KM BKN008 BKN010CB OVC080 24/24 Q0998

I'd say the instrument is suspect given the location of the eye wall and Kingston and the latest ob (200+mph).
[/FONT]

On Mount Washington our station manual allowed us to estimate wind speeds in case of instrument failure. We were really good at estimating wind gusts, especially since we had the data to validate.

Could they be estimating wind? My guess is they aren't very good at it.

 

[Warren Faidley]

I know it might be a long time before anyone hears from JL and the others, but please post ASAP when someone does to make sure they are OK.

Thanks.

 

[Miriam Lawrence]

Dean forecast/ULL

There's been some discussion/disagreement on Easternuswx about the behavior of the ULL in the Gulf, and whether or not it will move out fast enough. Some folks speculating that it may be slowing or stalling. Wondering what ya'll think, looking at the data? Anyone questioning the accuracy of the consensus track?

 

[Justin Turcotte]

The new TPC path puts Dean over or very near Pemex Cantarel Production Area, one of the biggest oil fields on the planet. Fortunately this area is fairly protected by the Yucatan but I'd think the workers would need to evacuate, effectively shutting the place down for a few days. Oil prices are down in early trading which could be for a variety of reasons.

Jamaica streaming radio: http://www.go-jamaica.com/power/

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

Dean has been tempting me for a trip to Jamaica on Friday 8-17 but I cancelled it with fear the Island would be missed to the south.

The hurricane track was SUPPOSED TO develop a WNW / NW movement, but Friday and Saturday, I did not see that as Dean possessed a more W motion (or maybe slightly N by W - like 275 or 280 degrees or so).

This indeed did happen on Sunday 8-19, but was a very close call. I hope who was down there (Jim L and others) stayed safe and got good footage.

I also opted a no-go on the Yucatan since the coarse keeps wanting to go south (storm is due west, not WNW) and might actually go into extreme N Belize where a trip to Mexico may not work out all that well.

Also, it will be a night landfall (like 4 AM or so Tuesday morning) - Screw that.

 

[John Peters]

Latest satellite images (as indicated by recent NHC forecast discussion) are looking more impressive than earlier this morning. IR cloud top temps seem to be cooling, and the outer eyewall is becoming more defined. Over the next few hours, I'd expect the eye to redefine and the storm to intensify to category five status, especially considering the increasing SSTs as it approaches the Yucatan.