Hurricane Dean

[Gabe Garfield]

Latest satellite images (as indicated by recent NHC forecast discussion) are looking more impressive than earlier this morning. IR cloud top temps seem to be cooling, and the outer eyewall is becoming more defined. Over the next few hours, I'd expect the eye to redefine and the storm to intensify to category five status, especially considering the increasing SSTs as it approaches the Yucatan.

I agree. The satellite presentation is becoming downright scary. The CDO is becoming *very* symmetrical and it finally has "the look" of a Category Five storm. The next recon will be amazing, no doubt.

I am praying earnestly for residents in the Yucatan, as this has the potential to be a catastrophic event with great loss of life.

Gabe

 

[Brian Stertz]

Looks as though the real danger zone will be south of the Cancun-Cozumel area on the Yucatan between Tulum and Chetumal. This area stands the greatest risk of catastrophic damage etc. It looks like there are some smaller coastal towns on some major points into the Caribbean that will be hit badly. It would have been downright scary had this deepening Dean slammed into the resort areas as it first appeared.

 

[Jim Bishop]

Not sure if anyone on this boards has been following, but there's a chaser on the easternuswx board who is enroute to Chetumal, Mexico to intercept Dean. I find this pretty interesting. I'm not sure any news outlets are willing to go to those lengths. It looks like he's going to pay a local to drive him down there. Well, at least he won't be alone!

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=139960

 

[Howard Robinson]

Not sure if anyone post this, but I have a link to Mexico Radar. Dean should come into their radar range soon.
http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/rad-canc.jpg

 

[Warren Faidley]

You have to prey for anyone who trys a nightime, coastal intercept of a Cat-4/5 in a strike area with little or no substantial infrastructure -- in Mexico! I have a bad feeling this is going to cause a sig. loss of life in Mexico.

Warren

 

[John Peters]

Latest satellite image is stunning - CDO has become perfectly symmetrical and the eye is very well defined. Looks similar to Rita near that storm's respective peak in intensity.

You have to prey for anyone who trys a nightime, coastal intercept of a Cat-4/5 in a strike area with little or no substantial infrastructure -- in Mexico! I have a bad feeling this is going to cause a sig. loss of life in Mexico.

Warren

I agree warren, considering the forward speed of this thing, it probably won't weaken much before landfall. Storm surge in the northern eyewall is going to be utterly devastating - this coupled with 140 kt winds will create one of the most hellish landfall scenarios imaginable.

 

[Bill Hark]

I know it might be a long time before anyone hears from JL and the others, but please post ASAP when someone does to make sure they are OK.

Thanks.

Jim Leonard and the others including George Kourounis intercepted Dean in Jamaica. They are doing well this morning. Apparently, they saw some wild waves and damage. Many roads are impassable and most power is out.

Bill Hark
Kour

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Couple strange parallel lines in that eye at the moment. They've made a complete revolution like that. Or maybe 2 revolutions. Playing the loop makes them appear like they are moving clockwise. Lol maybe they are moving that way. If you frame by frame it, trying to see them turning that way it looks more like almost one rotation, but if you see it going the other way frame by frame it looks like 2. Those two lines have to be moving clockwise.

 

[John Peters]

I have no doubt in my mind that dean is now a category 5 storm. 1645Z vis shows some of the most impressive storm structure i have ever seen.

 

[Dan Robinson]

You have to prey for anyone who trys a nightime, coastal intercept of a Cat-4/5 in a strike area with little or no substantial infrastructure -- in Mexico! I have a bad feeling this is going to cause a sig. loss of life in Mexico.

I agree also. No disrespect toward anyone going to Mexico for this, but I hope that anyone going is prepared not only for the storm itself but for the humanitarian disaster to follow. They aren't going anywhere for a long time and will need at least 2 weeks of food and water. If not they will be suffering incredibly after the storm is over.

I draw the line when it comes to a storm like this, in that type of country and at night nonetheless. Not worth the risk in any way. What would one hope to accomplish by doing this? I have a feeling that anyone going to the Yucatan right now hasn't thought about everything they need to be thinking about. As with most chasing ventures, aside from the few minutes of fame and one or two stock video sales one might see if they survive, no one really cares in the end. I guess that is a lesson to be learned the hard way.

 

[HAltschule]

Outer Bands now visibile here on Cancun, MX Doppler Radar imagery.

http://www.passco.com/cancun.htm

 

[John Peters]

latest advisory still pegs Dean as a 150 mph cat. 4 with 924 mb central pressure (estimated). Any word from the reconnaissance aircraft yet?

 

[MClarkson]

The plane just made a pass through the eye, it is having comm. trouble and some equipment trouble and I wouldnt expect much flight level data. From the one set of obs it did send back it looked like the storm has not intensified, despite its satellite appearance.

EDIT: However I think it will intensify today and perhaps the recon missed the highest winds on their first pass.

 

[Robert Dewey]

I agree also. No disrespect toward anyone going to Mexico for this, but I hope that anyone going is prepared not only for the storm itself but for the humanitarian disaster to follow. They aren't going anywhere for a long time and will need at least 2 weeks of food and water. If not they will be suffering incredibly after the storm is over.

I completely agree. Look at how bad New Orleans suffered after Katrina, and that was only a CAT 3. If the United States isn't prepared for that, you have to believe that Mexico isn't.

As with most chasing ventures, aside from the few minutes of fame and one or two stock video sales one might see if they survive, no one really cares in the end. I guess that is a lesson to be learned the hard way.

Not exactly sure of the motives, but some of these chasers aren't doing it for money. Apparently, "Hurricane Josh" (from the Eastern Wx forum) owns an advertising agency, and money isn't really an issue for him. I can't imagine that he's doing this to make a quick buck if that is indeed the case.

Some people just like the adrenaline... and what would make your adrenaline higher than a CAT 5 'cane in Mexico?

 

[Marcus Opitz]

From the looks of the sat pic, it looks larger and more defined than ever before. On appearance it rivals many super typhoons in the pacific.