Hurricane Dean

[Perry Williams]

Good day all...

I love chasing hurricanes, and been through many bad ones as well.

I have Andrew 92, Katrina 05, Charley 04, and many others under my belt ... But although I am down-right CRAZY, I never want to even be labeled as STUPID.

Here are my NEGATIVES on why I am not just jetting to the Yucatan, renting a car / SUV, and chasing Dean.

1). Night landfall (like 4 AM or so).

2). Storm core keeps shifting more W (not the expected WNW) on each advisory / forecast package.

3). Landfall may be on (or even south) of Mexican / Belize border.

4). If that verifies ... Jungles, little or no road networks.

5). You cannot bring 2 weeks of food, water, and survival gear on an airplane.

6). Anarchy and corrupt government, looting, disorder afterwards.

7). I do not have a gun, and will not buy one to protect myself there AFTER the storm.

8). Started a new job, and being stuck in the jungle for 2 weeks with no comm whatsoever will not explain why I should not be fired as I come back sometime in September.

9). Basically, Chris Collura would essentially disappear from the USA for 2 weeks or so.

10). I have not watched enough "Survivorman" on DISC yet.

11). "Dean" is my middle name ;-(

12). Parking garages above 30 feet MSL are hard to find on the east side of the bay of Chetumal. Surge is another issue, as the photo ops we had in Katrina in 05 won't happen since it will be dark.

13). Winds sustained at 150-160 MPH (this is at-least) and a 30% rule on gusts (near 200 MPH) - This is basically an EF-5 tornado (over 200 MPH peak winds) about 30-40 miles wide and at night - THINK about it!

Just my thoughts. But remove some of these "negatives" and I might re-consider (won't happen in 12 hours) ;-(

I agree with you 100%......which is why I never even considered chasing Dean once it became apparent it would remain south of the Rio Grande. The aftermath of a borderline cat-4/5 hurricane in an area you aren't familiar with (and where you aren't a citizen) could be just as dangerous IMO as the hurricane itself.

 

[George Kourounis]

Here's a pic of the surge coming in along the Jamaica coastline.
More pics online here:
www.stormchaser.ca

 

[beaudodson]

Josh made it to the hotel - he is in Chetumal, Mexico and posting

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=139960&st=660&gopid=2073150&#entry2073150

 

[Marcus Opitz]

latest update from the nhc raises the winds to 155 mph...very close indeed...

 

[B Ozanne]

It looks like north of Chetumal there is very little along the coast until you get to Cozumel.

Any news out of Jamaica?

 

[Marcus Opitz]

nhc reports that winds are now 160 mph per 835pm update....

 

[B Ozanne]

Dean is now a Cat 5 with winds of 160mph. Update just issued by the NHC.

 

[John Peters]

Pressure is down to 915 mb (via recon. aircraft). What a monster. God have mercy on anyone in the path of this storm.

 

[Brian Stertz]

DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING HURRICANE DEAN INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 160 MPH...MAKING DEAN A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.

Hurricane Dean now hits the charts as a Cat. 5....watch out Yucatan and NE Belize Coast. This one may rip the hurricane flags right off the flagpole.

 

[rdale]

The GFS model...which was dead on right earlier in the season this far out, now has progged what looks to be a major hurricane making landfall along the East Coast. This afternoon's run brings onshore over Charleston, SC.

Charleston, Yucatan... they sound similar at least ;> What's a few thousand miles when it comes to forecasting...

 

[Bill Tabor]

This Hurricane Josh scenario is interesting. I hope the guy fares ok, as it sounds a bit tough. I went over to the forum board and here is his most recent post from 2 minutes ago:

9:20 pm CDT

I'm overwhelmed by the response to this thread. (IMG:http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/style_emoticons/default/smile.gif) I really am.

I'm going to keep a stiff upper lip for y'all, but I won't deny some concern Re: the way this is going on. I'm going to get what I've wished for for twenty years-- since I was a baby weenie on Long Island-- and suddenly, I'm not sure I want it.

But what's done is done. It is what it is, I've made my choices, and I will live with them.

I used to drink a lot during chases-- was hammered during Bret 1999 in TX-- but I gave up alcohol long ago, and so these days, my best way for getting rid of nervous energy is running, and I just went on a 25-minute run-- along the bay. It's still calm-- and I can see the moon a bit. A couple of families were hanging with their kids at the waterfront. Two men sat on a bench smoking. There's something very stoic about the Mexicans-- they don't overreact to things, I've noticed. Perhaps it's because they've all led hard lives? I'm mightily impressed, and their cool vibe is keeping me cool, too.

I just got back and noticed the N wobble. I'm f*cking glad about that-- as long as I'm S of the eye, I'm cool. I just don't want to be in the right-front quad with this one. I never thought I'd hear myself say that about a 'cane. I'm humbled tonight as this monster appraoches.

And yet it's still so calm outside. It's hard to believe what's coming. I almost don't... Like the satellite images are all make-believe.

 

[Brandon Clement]

This Hurricane Josh scenario is interesting. I hope the guy fares ok, as it sounds a bit tough. I went over to the forum board and here is his most recent post from 2 minutes ago:

Been there done that. Luckily the ones I thought were too much weakened before coming ashore. Lili scared the hell out of me. I only live about 4 hours from the target for Lili. When I left the house she was a weak 2, when I got to the target, found a hotel and checked in she was a 4 and the forecast was talking about a solid 5 moving into a very low lying SW La. I really started getting worried when I saw Jim Cantore 20 miles farther inland than I was. Luckily it weakened and turned out to be the chase I had the most fun.

I don't think he is going to be quite so lucky.

 

[John Peters]

Based on the most recent dvorak images, i would conclude that the storm has continued to strengthen since the last advisory. The area of coldest cloud tops in the CDO has become very symmetrical around the now very-well-defined eye. Let's hope for this guy's sake that the slight jog to the north will spare him the northern eyewall. I wouldn't be supprised if this storm produced some of the most substantial storm surge in history.

dvorak IR loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-bd.html

 

[Brandon Clement]

Latest recon

000
URNT12 KNHC 210029
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 20/2346Z
B. 18 DEG 17 MIN N
085 DEG 00 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2359 M
D. 121 KTS
E. 318 DEG 9 NM
F. 047 DEG 156 KTS
G. 318 DEG 08 NM
H. 914 MB
I. 9 C/ 3047 M
J. 21 C/ 3053 M
K. 17 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C16
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02/2 NM
P. AF303 1404A DEAN 0B 30
MAX FL WIND 162 KT NW QUAD 2358Z

Would put surface winds at 165mph

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPNT2.shtml?

 

[John Peters]

Based on the 914 mb, Dean has now tied Janet as the 10th most intense hurricane ever in the atlantic basin.