Hurricane Dean

Josh - Hang on and be safe.

let me know if you see a faint stadium in moonlight and stars during the calm - Just make sure you shield your face after that 20 minutes of calm (oh, and face the other side of the wall your hiding behind = Wind shift) ;-)

Wish I was there with you - Good luck!
 
The IR Sat finally shows the classic, epic cat 5. Eye is nearly perfect, so is the CDO, nearly symmetrical thick and cold. There is a very slight dry slot to the north, that is it. Certainly the structure is better looking than when the last plane left. I agree with John, the storm has strengthened since the last plane left 4 hours ago. Another should be there in 1:5h or so, and I would think Dean is at <910mb. We'll find out when they arrive.
 
Thanks, I've been reading his blow-by-blow (no pun intended) posts on the noted forum. Looks like he is going to take a direct hit, according to the guys who are monitoring the Cancun radar site. Either way, looks like an eyewall experience at night. I'm guessing his connection will go soon, as I think they turn off the power in Mexico in advance of hurricanes. I remember going insane when Andrew hit at night and I could not shoot anything until daybreak!

Does anyone know the ocean geology of that coastal area and the storm surge potential?

Warren
 
Its a steep coast, not quite as resistant to surge as say, cancun, but still youd expect about twice the surge if this storm was landfalling on the US gulf coast.

plane is approaching the eyewall, ~15 minutes till the eye.
 
Its reasonable, it supports a surface intensity of 135/140 knots typically. This is the planes first pass, they probably havent sampled the strongest winds yet, and they have many passes left on this mission.
 
RE: Storm surge: From HHC:

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 12 TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
 
I am up late and monitoring Dean. I was wondering if anyone has some quick links.

1. This Hurrcane Josh blog (also wondering when his last post was and if hes ok)

2. ANY radar near the Landfall area

3. Updated net info from the Hurricane Hunters (maybe even a link to their HAM frequencies linked online).

4. Any TV stations reporting this live or even AM FM radio stations or any kind of local HAMS in the area.

It is interesting to note the low lying area north of Chetumal that looks like a river or canal. Anyways it looks possible that water could be pulled South from Isla de Techal AS storm surge pushes in there and then follows this feature South toward Chetumal. You can see it on Google earth pretty well. This is going to be major but if this thing was moving like 5 mph....I cant even imagine.....I cant even imagine as it is anyways....
 
The plane circled around in the eye a few times, presumably because they missed the drop. at 0633z they dropped a 909mb, but with 27 knots of winds recorded at the surface indicating they did not hit dead center. The actually central pressure was likely a few mb lower.


The plane is moving in for another pass.

EDIT: Through the eye, 164kt fl winds, similar central pressure xtrap
 
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