How Far Will You Travel for a Slight Risk?

[Stephen Levine]

It depends on the set up and my work schedule and timing of the event. I prefer to chase within 4 hours of home so that I can comfortably return that nite. However I am not averse to staying overnight if a good setup occurs 6 hours away from home.
I love taking "off-season" excursions into deep East TX, SE TX in the winter as they provide passion, drama and excitement of winds, intense rains, lightning and spectacular clouds while the cold front frequently comes in with just a windshift and light showers at best back in the Dallas area.

 

[Travis Davis]

My first tornado was in a non-risk area. I have traveled around 350 miles on a slight risk day though.

 

[Jacob Ferden]

I'll chime in, if only to prove that I haven't died within the last few months.

I seem to be the opposite of some people in that nearly all of my especially noteworthy chases (good and bad) have come on higher end SPC risk days.

4/25/09 = MOD = tornado
4/22/10 = MOD = many tornadoes
5/10/10 = HIGH = supercell (but essentially busted)
5/19/10 = HIGH = multiple supercells (missed the big tornado show though)
4/14/11 = MOD = supercell (missed the tornadoes again)
4/09/12 = MOD = unreal structure, tornado, and sig. hail
4/14/12 = HIGH = multiple supercells, two daytime tornadoes, then noctural wedge

Go figure.

Having said that, I'm not averse to traveling long distances for a lower end risk. I've chased into both SW Kansas and the TX panhandle on SEE TEXTs before. Got nice high based supercells both times too.

It depends on finer meteorological details, IMO.

 

[John Wetter]

I've had many great slight risk days. It is true that not all slight risk days are alike... Especially in the northern plains. There is no hard and fast rules for me, but I've gone as far as Nebraska and Montana (from MN) for slight risk days. I have two EF-4's in slight risk days to show for it, so it can't all be bad! That and some great smaller tornadoes, and other severe storms. There isn't much better than great structure in South Dakota!

 

[Ethan Schisler]

Most recently, we drove about 22 hours total for a "Slight Risk" type day. Left Illinois at 4AM on the 13th of October and arrived back in Illinois around 2AM on the 14th. It was largely a bust, however I did get some rather awesome structure shots so it wasn't a complete loss for me even though no tornadoes were produced. For reference, I live near Galesburg, IL and we ended up making it south of Wellington, KS (less than 10 miles from the Oklahoma border). Maybe kind of foolish to drive that far looking back, however before the chase, it seemed as though there was some potential for Southern Kansas and Northern Oklahoma to get a few tornadoes if conditions were right. Even going into mid-afternoon, it looked as though something decent might happen, however everything ended up going up at once down in Central Oklahoma presumably robbing the moisture for northern storms to produce any significant severe weather or tornadoes.

But, hey it is late in the season and I like to chase, plus winter is setting in fast so you take what you can get


-Ethan Schisler

 

[Marcus Diaz]

I've scored tornadoes on SEE TEXT days and busted hard on HIGH risk days. I've driven to North Dakota for a SLIGHT risk and got only a nice little supercell with a bird fart tornado. I'm at the point where I realistically think I can see a tornado, I'll drive anywhere. Time, money, motivation, and terrain dictate how willing I am to go to a SLIGHT risk.

Categorical risks are merely there for public awareness. Depending on the storm coverage, you can have a SLIGHT risk produce many tornadoes. Especially if on storm goes on to be cyclic. For a reference, take my profile picture. It was May 24, 2010. It was a MDT risk in the Dakotas, with a mere SLIGHT down here in the panhandle. That storm went on to produce 4 seperate tornadoes in less than an hour. While people were scoring tors near Faith, SD...I had this storm virtually to myself.

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

Just recently, I chased the last Texas slight risk on October 12 and 13 in Oklahoma the next day. Two small tornadoes and a beautiful supercell were caught on the 12th near Plainview, Texas. Yes indeed, I went far - quite far: Flew out on Oct 11 from Fort Lauderdale, FL to Houuston then Kansas City. Picked up rental vehicle and headed west on I-70 to near Russell for the night. Drove from there to the intercept south of Amarillo out from underneath stable upper 40's temps in Kansas just in time for the tornadoes. The next day, I was chasing in Oklahoma, then by midnight that same day, I was back in Kansas City and flew out the next morning (Oct 14 early) making it back to Miami just in time to see the Miami Dolphins game (1 PM kickoff). I guess I'm crazy in that sense (?)

It's all about the logistics and how "promising" the setup looks. I live quite far from tornado alley (S Florida) so outside of long chasecations lasting 2-3 weeks (hoping a ridge does not wedge it's way right in the middle of that time-span - yeah, it's happened), the spot chases are usually confined to MDT and HIGH risk setups (April 14 2012 being a great success for me this year).

Slight risks are carefully considered - Ofcourse I am not dropping $$$ on airfares / driving for a slight risk in Arkansas or E Oklahoma, but anything in the TX Pandhandles and W Kansas / W OK and even Colorado (no trees, high visibility, non-ongoing stuff, dryline + "fresh" cyclogenesis) ... I found "those" slight risks to be more "rewarding" than a MDT farther east!

The flights have to be last minute and are often EXTREMELY expensive (given that many setups happen around non-chase related events such as NASCAR, holidays, oh - who can forget "spring break" - Ugh!) ... I try to save all the "points" I get over the years for that - Paid off well MANY times. If you got a credit card that earns sky-miles ... Use if for ALL your expenses, food, bills, insurance, etc. At the end of the month, do a single payment to the credit card and "save the stamps" and frustration of separate bills. Before you know it, the points will be enough for at least one or two "free flights". Just make sure you can pay the credit card off each month (look at it like paying for groceries all at once at month's end, instead of cash each time at the store) ... That's what I have a credit card for - The points.

Also, and most importantly ... A categorical risk does not always mean something will happen. Anyone must be able to forecast and interpret weather and setups and use their own judegement and expertise. I have made a "go" decision on a "see text" (later upgraded to slight) and caught tornadoes back in Texas in 2010 for it!

 

[Ethan Schisler]

May 25, 2012, a great example! Was forecast to be a "See Text" day, the day before and then on the 06z outlook it was upgraded to a Slight Risk with a 2% probability of tornadoes. It wasn't until later that day that it was upgraded to a 5% probability and several photogenic tornadoes resulted out of Central Kansas. One of them nowcasting type of events!!

-Ethan Schisler

 

[Michael Towers]

I’ve driven over 1000 miles (e.g. Colorado, Texas) for Slight Risk events but usually for multiple day set-ups with decent tornado potential I felt worthy of the trip. Tornado potential would be my primary factor in deciding whether to chase, followed by the duration of the chase (i.e. 1 day vs. multiple days), the distance to the event and how far in advance I can pull the trigger and plan a chase. The cost is also a consideration, I’m self-employed so I don’t get paid vacation days. If I don’t work I don’t get paid and often any missed day also translates into missed business for subsequent days which costs me even more lost income. I also usually can’t wait until the last minute to make the decision, doing so would almost always force me to cancel business appointments and that’s something I’m reluctant to do. Therefore I almost always plan a chase days in advance when the outlook is Slight or not even yet categorized. As a result the decision to go is made from a forecast based on the synoptic versus the mesoscale and sometimes that just doesn’t pan out very well. Twice this year I canceled trips the very morning I was ready to go (5-27 & 6-9) because I felt the potential wasn’t worth it. That’s real hard to do, all the gear is packed in the truck and you’re feeling so excited about the prospects of hitting the wide open Plains for some beautiful storms! The schedule is clear and you’re free to go but a look at the data and it just isn’t as promising as it was only 12 hours earlier. Do I drive 500+ miles and hope things change for the better, take a gamble and see what I get? If the tornado potential doesn’t seem high enough I’m likely not going to go, especially if it’s a one day set-up. I might if it’s a Sunday (my day off) and within 300 miles or so but anything farther for something marginal and I’ll probably take a pass.

 

[Michael Snyder]

I fly in from Seattle each May at the least. I have been fairly lucky and have seen rotating supercells, nice hail, funnel clouds, and last year I lucked out with the May 25th show. I sat within a couple hundred yards of the EF2 twister that formed just as the sun was setting.

 

[Kelley Austin]

When I'm out in the plains on my chase vacation I will drive as far as necessary to get there. Done it many times. When not on my chase vacation I will drive as far as I can within reason so I can get back to work the next day.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

For me its not so much about the "categorical risk" as it is the environment I am trying to forecast. If I see enough potential in a particular setup I will travel as far as I need to go chase. It all comes down to time and money. I have ventured from Tulsa to Nebraska and Colorado on slight risk days.