How do you determine your level of safety?

[Darren Lo]

How do you determine if it's safe to core punch a particular storm, sit in RFD winds, etc.? (By "safe", I actually mean "consistent with one's level of risk tolerance", but it's much easier just to say "safe" instead.) If this is something you learn through experience, doesn't that imply that during the learning process, there are times when your risk tolerance level is inadvertently exceeded?

 

[Drew Terril]

I think a lot of that is going to differ from chaser to chaser. Some, like myself, go to great lengths to avoid risky maneuvers. That said, I have been known to dart back into the core when I can't safely get south of a potential tornado. At that point, it comes down to the lesser of the evils.

Other chasers have a greater tolerance for risks and chase far more aggressively than I'm comfortable doing. I have nothing against their preferred methods; I just choose not to employ them.

 

[Mike Marz]

I definitely agree that most chaser's risk tolerance levels are exceeded at some point during the learning process. I'm guessing that a lot of chasers would have a story or two about some uncomfortable situations from early in their careers. I know that I have lost my situational awareness a time or two, and at that point, chasing is not very fun. I think that experience is the most important aspect of chasing and how comfortable you feel doing certain things. I learn something new on every chase it seems. My level of comfort is strongly connected to what I can and can't see. If I have good visuals, than I am willing to get as close as possible. I have tended to stay farther back on the hazy HP stuff. 2015 has definitely had a good deal of hazy HP storms, and the more experience that I gain with these storms, the more I am realizing what is and what isn't a good idea. Paved road options also play a huge role in how safe I feel and what I am willing to do.

 

[Todd Lemery]

I try to lean towards the side of extra cautious when I can't get a good look at what the storm is doing. My personal risk tolerance really doesn't change that much. Where I seem to have a problem is my "lemming" disease, where I would relocate in a normal situation, but seem to come up with the idea that I'm in a safer spot than I actually am because other chasers haven't bailed yet. I know I should be moving, but something in my head holds me back sometimes. Like I don't want to be a "sissy" for leaving.
I just hope a whole pack of people like me don't get freight trained because of that. Only had one real close call, but it's just luck there haven't been more.

 

[Jeff Duda]

How do you determine if it's safe to core punch a particular storm, sit in RFD winds, etc.? (By "safe", I actually mean "consistent with one's level of risk tolerance", but it's much easier just to say "safe" instead.) If this is something you learn through experience, doesn't that imply that during the learning process, there are times when your risk tolerance level is inadvertently exceeded?

Both questions can be answered by the same content: chase with someone more daring and more experienced before attempting particularly risky maneuvers on your own. They can teach you how they're processing events to determine the safety level. Thus, your own personal level of maximum risk above which your survival threshold takes over is rendered irrelevant since you are assumed to be with someone with a higher threshold whom you also trust.

For me, a big day of growth occurred on 19 May 2010 when I was chasing with TWISTEX. We hook sliced the Watonga tornadic supercell, eventually emerging from the wind-driven-hail filled hook about one mile northwest of a modest tornado in progress. I certainly never would've done that on my own before then. I've only hook sliced once or twice since then since hook slicing is about where my threshold is. 31 May 2013 taught us all how dangerous hook slicing can be. Even if you read your environment, it is taxing on your senses and you can, in a moment of fatigue, lose touch with how things are going and miss something subtle, but important, that could cost you your life.

For me personally: I read the winds but guided by radar velocities. If I'm approaching a mesocyclone from the northwest for example, I'm looking at the wind direction since it usually is inflow into the meso/tornado. If the winds are northwesterly, then I assume any tornado is southeast of me. If i'm hook slicing eastward I expect the winds to back towards the north, then northeast, then maybe east depending on my proximity to the tornado and the structure of the flow field. If the winds turn north-northeasterly before I pop out of the rain, I'm ready to s--t my pants and stop because I know I'm probably in the path of the tornado at that point (assuming it's moving northeast, but that's an assumption you have to make and that you may not always be correct about...hence the risk). In those situations stopping is usually a better idea than pressing on since continuing on would probably keep you in the tornado's path, whereas stopping would probably allow the tornado to proceed ahead of you. Consider the area of a west-east road impacted by a northeastward moving tornado - even if the tornado is only 100 ft wide, it will impact a stretch of your road much longer than 100 ft because it is moving at an angle to the road. If the winds are especially light or calm, then I generally assume there is not a tornado present. Typically if there's a tornado on the ground and it's close enough to be a risk to your safety, the wind will be noticeably enhanced around you.

 

[Randy Jennings]

I'm not sure one can come up with a definitive set of guidelines (although I do have to say the other posters have done a good job). Like storm chasing in general, it's a hunch most of the time. You have to get out and miss some opportunities because you played it too safe, and you have to get out and make mistakes and get too close for your confront to fine tune that skill. I learn something new every time I go out and fine tune that skill some more. I chased with 2 others for the first time this year, and I have to say I really enjoyed that. The driver is often so involved in driving they can't always be a good help in decision making. Since I had one other non-driver besides myself, there where times when he told me I was playing it too safe, and times when he told me I was too risky. As long as you can find 2 folks with similar confront levels to you, having 3 on a team can be a great way to improve you hunches (not to mention you may need folks looking in 2 directions like we did once this year as we had things developing on two sides of the vehicle).

 

[NealRasmussen]

I always think, "What if my parents were in the car with me now?".

Ok. That wouldn't work.

 

[NealRasmussen]

On a serious note.

I don't punch cores. As a general rule. I'll skirt through the anvil drizzle, but not through the FFD and hail.

As Drew said, it can be an escape from a TVS or meso. But of course we'd rather go east or south if time allows. When in a core you have no vis of the updraft. Often speeds are down to the 20-40mph range. Sometimes you can barely make storm speed. If it doesn't seem like a hail core, and if I come out somewhere safe, I don't have a problem with it, but the Proverbial core punch to come out in front of the meso is where it gets stupid.

The other often abused maneuver is to "make the intersection before the wallcloud". Extrapolating the meso's motion on radar, orrr... seeing where the motion barb goes, and then seeing that OK33 gets you east of it, so you drive too fast and wow! 1 mile in front of the Bear's Cage. But. Too often it's 1/4 mi, or you're in the Bear's Cage. At that point you're playing Russian Roulette, but a blind person is aiming the gun.

Basically if you're having doubts about something? It's probably telling you to back off.

 

[Drew Terril]

I always think, "What if my parents were in the car with me now?".

Ok. That wouldn't work.

I knew a few pilots who liked to say "Never share a cockpit with someone crazier than you are." That would be like me taking my mom on a chase.

 

[JeremyS]

I would say I was never a huge risk taker, but after El Reno I feel like I really have backed off even more. I wasn't down there but what happened to Tim and Carl and Paul really shook me up. Last year I had an experience in central Nebraska where my GPS position on GRLevel 3 was off by at least several miles and that caused me to take a road I felt was far enough out in front of a tornado warned storm and instead ended up not making it across the road before the storm almost cut me off. Ended up in zero visibility for a couple of miles in 70 mph outflow winds. Very tense and spooked me quite a bit. A few chases after that one was Pilger and I remember the almost anxiety I had chasing, it was a feeling I had never felt before chasing, a feeling as if suddenly a tornado could drop anywhere and go almost any direction. I know we can never know 100% what any storm or tornado is going to do, but it's like I stopped trusting my education and experience I do have.
Now this year, on May 6th I still managed to get myself within a 1/4 mile of a pretty strong tornado in northern Kansas. The tornado didn't do anything unexpected and I was in a safe place in the storm. Hopefully, this experience will be enough to reduce my recent angst.
I'll probably never core punch(mainly because my wife doesn't want me to destroy the car with hail), but the up close experience I had with the tornado this year was amazing and something I want to experience again

 

[Shane Adams]

The replies in this thread are all excellent....there really isn't a simple, stock reply to the original question. However I will add something....I see a lot of people bring up El Reno when the topic of safety comes up. One thing that's important to note is, the setup/conditions on the El Reno day were screaming "this isn't the day to play chicken". The atmospheric conditions that day were clearly on the "extreme" side, with some parameters into the '"holy sh*t!" category. SPC's outlook that day had some wording in it that jumped out at me, things that made you understand that storms and tornadoes might behave differently than ususal (distinct propogation, etc etc). Right then, a chaser should see a red flag.

My point is, chasing safety starts well before you're even on the storm, or on the road. Knowing the type of setup you'll be dealing with is key, as far as mentally preparing yourself for what you're willing to do to get a look at a tornado. Days where it's a typical classic storm setup, where visibility is good, you're mainly worried about roads and storm speeds. Days were HP modes are favored, you're far more concerned with visibility than just roads. And days like 5-31-13, you have to sit back and go "woah." Those type of days require a chaser to almost throw what they "know" out the window, as far as typical storm/tornado evoultiuon/behavior (which is what 99% of their experience is built upon). Knowing what type "personality" the atmosphere will have, or what type "mood" it will be in on a given day, is essential in knowing and understanding how to tackle a storm situation. Just as important as in situ moments.

 

[Shawn Gossman]

I used to just wing it, back when I was young and full of "i'm invincible" thoughts, haha.

Nowadays, I mainly spot storms rather than chase them for personal safety. I'm with the local fire department and emergency management so I figure storm spotting would be more valuable for me to participate in than chasing. However, I will chase locally, as in storms in southern Illinois. But as someone who is really passionate about emergency management, my advice is to plan for everything even for if your plan fails, a plan B if you will. PM your chase day (Preventative Maintenance) by making sure their safeguards in place to keep you safe. Examples like checking your tires, making sure you have plenty of gas in rural areas where it might not be available and ensuring that you have a working cell phone for emergencies. Find a problem and place corrective action on it... Mitigate hazards from happening to you!

 

[John Farley]

One thing to keep in mind is that the radar you are looking is always at least a few minutes behind the storm's actual position. So if you are ahead of it, trying to get ahead of it, or (in the example Neil gives), trying to beat it to an intersection, remember that it will probably move farther than what the motion barb suggests in any given amount of time, because it is already at least a little ahead of where the radar shows it. And be very aware of whether your radar is updating in a timely manner, because if it is not, then the storm is even farther along its path of motion than what is shown on your screen.

 

[Drew Terril]

Shawn makes a good point with the PMs. We called it PMCS (Preventative Maintenance Checks and Services) in the Army, and I run through the same routine I did for military vehicles when I'm getting ready for a chase. Check all the fluids, lights, signals, etc. I check my tires and oil every time I get fuel. It won't catch everything, such as when I broke an axle 7 weeks ago (that was a freak occurrence more than anything), but it will give you a good idea of the overall health of your vehicle, especially if you do it on a regular basis.

 

[JamesCaruso]

...chasing safety starts well before you're even on the storm, or on the road. Knowing the type of setup you'll be dealing with is key, as far as mentally preparing yourself for what you're willing to do to get a look at a tornado. Days where it's a typical classic storm setup, where visibility is good, you're mainly worried about roads and storm speeds. Days were HP modes are favored, you're far more concerned with visibility than just roads. And days like 5-31-13, you have to sit back and go "woah."

This brings back a memory of when I first started chasing in 1996, with Marty Feely's "Whirlwind Tours." There were certain days that he would give extra caution to the group about what might happen that day, instructing us to be particularly vigilant, attentive about immediately getting back into the van if he said so, etc. Even now, in my mind I will sometimes characterize certain setups as, "This is one of those days where Marty would give his speech..."



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[Royce Sheibal]

I always make sure that my driver is less crazy than I. If I'm the driver...things can get iffy. Which is why my wife doesn't let me drive while chasing anymore!

 

[Ben Holcomb]

As someone who threaded the needle and got pretty close on numerous occasions this year, it's hard to come up with one set of guidelines. Trying to know the environment is really key, however. Some days it isn't too big of a deal to play close, other days it's a good idea to keep distance. There weren't too many 'holy crap' days in 2015 that I can remember. Storm mode, motion, road network, and things like CAPE and LCL's/dewpoints are all things to think about. If I'm in a gridded road with good terrain and slow storm motions I'm likely to go right up to the tornado. Keeping a watch overhead at the wall cloud/meso and not just at a tornado is also good. I found myself right next to a tornado on May 6th then I looked up and realized I was in a terrible spot, so I backed up.

The real big thing I can suggest is that you have to be able to think ahead and look ahead. Not many people can process maps and multiple escape routes fast while driving and chasing. A lot of people are just not excellent at multi tasking. That's where the bigger risks come in. Luckily I'm quite scatter brained and can multi task pretty well, and I keep a lot of road options in my head at a quick glance. The more I'm in an area too, the better off I am. If I've chased down the road before, I have a pretty photogenic memory and can remember what things are like. Experience definitely counts in this area.

An example is November 7, 2011. I had chased 4/26/2009 (screw that day) in the Wichitas, and eventually went through the Wildlife refuge to stay on the storm that would go on to produce a funnel in Carnegie. I was able to keep up with the storm but barely, and had to break speed limits to do so. On November 7th, the huge conga line of chasers went through the wildlife refuge from OK-54. As soon as I realized we were going 30 MPH, under the speed limit, I knew we'd never keep up with the storm. We punched west through the hook and then took OK-54 north to OK-19 north of the wind farm there on the mountain. We were able to then punch back through the hook and get back in front of the tornado. If I hadn't had previous experience with chasing in that area, I would have likely continued in the conga line and missed more tornadoes or been in a really poor (read: unsafe) spot. Knowing the roads is important and only something you can get with experience.

As far as May 31, 2013, we tried to punch through the RFD and my instincts told me to stop. I wasn't liking what might be on the other side that day knowing the environment was super prime for huge devastating tornadoes and having no visibility.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Relating back to the OP's question, it is important to remember that "looking up" won't always keep you safe because you may not be able to discern that you are under a lowering - it will visually blend with the ambient updraft base above it - so if new to chasing, best not to be that close to begin with.