Chasing in the Zone
Been a season of poor decision making in the field for me, but I am confident things will improve. Saw a brief torn in North TX back in March, so I am looking to get back to the good times in May. Couple times since I went after lead supercells instead of sticking to the forecast/chase plan, a triple point forecast abandoned twice when the TP produced both times.
Once I read a book about making decisions when the outcome is uncertain. Great book called Trading in the Zone by Mark Douglass has applications beyond trading/investing. We humans are not wired to make decisions without being certain first. However in storm chasing we constantly must make decisions without certainty. It goes back to planning. Douglas talks about a trading plan but we have a forecast that we worked on for days. Both should be followed for success. You win some; you lose some. It is OK to miss when the target does not work out. It is unacceptable to miss due to not following the plan. IMO the plan can include a backup, a Plan B, if the meteorology changes. Plan B should also be made in advance to avoid silly decision making mistakes. However in both TP cases I was being impulsive instead of even following any Plan B.
Also have some thoughts on data. Made the mistake of looking at old data twice, and not double checking the time stamps. Old data is worse than having no data at all. On the good clear days I am going to get back to the basics of interrogating anvil structure from afar. Of course up close I was already favoring visual observation. Perhaps start that a little sooner, and rely on a quality forecast/chase plan.
Good luck to everyone. We still have a lot of time to succeed.
), and the best structure I've ever seen. From a forecasting standpoint, it was also pretty gratifying to have my 4/29 target verify.
Congrats to those that have already had a great season.
