Hello Dolly

[David Douglas]

The latest update from the NHC has Dolly going inland as a hurricane north of Brownsville, TX. It looks like there is a good model spread both north and south of the current track. The area between Brownsville and Corpus Christi is very flat so obviously we'll see quite a bit of flooding. Hopefully we'll see some rain bands come through Austin as we need the rain.

-David

 

[Thomas Spence]

Dolly is finally organizing with the ULL out of the way and the very warm waters of the GOM. I can see Dolly approaching Cat 3 if she goes a little north of Brownsville as this will allow for at least another 6-10 hours over the open waters of the Gulf. If she goes in along the Mexican coast, we will likely have a strong Cat 1, maybe Cat 2 on our hands. I'm betting on Dolly to make landfall just south of the border with winds around 90-100mph.

 

[David Douglas]

Thomas - welcome aboard stormtrack. Good luck with your studies.

Here are a couple of model ensembles that I've been looking at. It does look to me today like Dolly is on the northern edge of these runs.

http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/GFS_ENSEMBLE_GULF-MEXICO_DOLLY.png

http://wxcaster4.com/GULF-MEXICO_DOLLY.png

 

[Martin North]

Atm...the LLCC seems to be progressing more to the NW. Wonder how long it's gonna take to form that inner core.

Not too long by the looks of things. 18 - 24 hrs.

 

[Jeff House]

I forecast Dolly will make landfall around Brownsville as a Cat 1 early Wed. Some models have it coming in as far north as Corpus, depending on the strength of the ridge over Texas. Believe ridge will stay strong enough to guide Dolly farther south near the Border. Shortwave will chew into the ridge a bit from the northeast (Miss Valley) but I figure the part of the ridge over Texas can stay established. North Texas ridge has over-achieved for much of July.

Wednesday pm landfall assumes it slows down quite a bit (from 14 to 8 mph) and heads towards Texas. However it could be late Tue night or early Wed (slowing to 10-12 mph) if a stronger ridge keeps steering winds going and/or it takes a shorter path into northeastern Mexico. I don’t think it has time to become a Cat 2 without a big burst tonight. Either way I don’t see Cat 3 in the cards. I’m looking for a Cat 1 near the Border early Wed, perhaps as early as the pre-dawn hours.

 

[MClarkson]

My one concern is the southerly shear clearly present on WV satellite. The good news is the GFS gets rid of this shear and forms an excellent upper level anticyclone. The bad news is the NAM does not get rid of this upper level south shear entirely. The models have been pretty consistant with track: a landfall between BRO and CRP. If I was chasing id plan on spending tomorrow night in CRP, it being on the forecast strong side, and then move from there as/if necessary.

If the shear can get out of there... and the storm organize in time... rapid intensification is still possible.

 

[Simon Brewer]

Hey guys: I'm going to try and keep updates on our chase of soon to be hurricane Dolly on our website:

http://www.stormgasm.com/

Dolly is showing great outflow patturns aloft and solid low-level circulation on visible sat loops. Pockets of 30 deg C SSTs and a favorable shear environment might cause Dolly to go nuts before landfall. Remember the models have big problems with intensity forecasts and this is the type of environment to get a possible CAT 3 within a matter of 24 hours.

Simon

 

[Thomas Spence]

Just looking at the satellite presentation and the inner core of dolly, I don't think Dolly will get any higher than a Cat 1 anymore. I thought once she got off shore that she would start to strengthen right away but that hasn't happened. Unless she goes crazy tonight and tomorrow, Cat 1 might be all that comes out of it, which is not a bad thing what so ever for those people in NE Mexico and S Texas. They need the rain down there and a strong TS or weak Hurricane will do them wonders!

 

[Doug_Kiesling]

Just looking at the latest data and working my own forecast, this may hit as early as tomorrow night and will basiclly hit the nothing no mans land north of Brownsville if it keeps it's current track.

This is looking like nothing more then a drought buster like Christobal was for the Carolinas.

It's July, we still have 3 more of decent months of chasing left and I'm going to pass on this one.

 

[B Ozanne]

Just looking at the latest data and working my own forecast, this may hit as early as tomorrow night and will basiclly hit the nothing no mans land north of Brownsville if it keeps it's current track.

This is looking like nothing more then a drought buster like Christobal was for the Carolinas.

It's July, we still have 3 more of decent months of chasing left and I'm going to pass on this one.

I think Cristobal was a drought buster bust. Most of the precip stayed offshore.

Didn't a strong hurricane in the late 90's strike this no-man's land as well?

The NHC is a little worried about the speed of this storm. Right now its on pace to make landfall tomorrow during the day, but NHC is relying heavily on the model guidance that indicates a Wednesday afternoon landfall.

 

[Doug_Kiesling]

Didn't a strong hurricane in the late 90's strike this no-man's land as well?

The NHC is a little worried about the speed of this storm. Right now its on pace to make landfall tomorrow during the day, but NHC is relying heavily on the model guidance that indicates a Wednesday afternoon landfall.

Hurricane Allen hit the same area 28 years ago in 1980

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Allen

 

[MClarkson]

Bret landfell there as a cat 3 in 99, and did very little damage(for a cat 3) cause the area is so sparsely populated.

 

[B Ozanne]

Bret landfell there as a cat 3 in 99, and did very little damage(for a cat 3) cause the area is so sparsely populated.

That's the storm I was thinking of.

 

[MClarkson]

Well the satellite appearence is certainly improving. The central convection is well-established, and outflow is epic north through east. Still a little restricted to the south... but more than made up for by the north-east quads. Recon in an hour.

 

[Brandon Ivey]

I briefly considered making the ~14hr. drive for this storm, but I think I would rather save my vacation time for a better storm. Yeah it may be a cat. 2 at landfall (that is my prediction), but I am going to double-down and bet that a better storm will hit the TX/LA region this season. With a wife, two kids, and a full time job, I only get one shot per year at this stuff! Good luck to those going!